Approaching the halfway point of the NFL season, the MVP battle is starting to feel like a three-horse race. The 2022 NFL MVP odds reflect just that.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen remains the favorite — he’s still barely available at better than even money across the betting industry — with Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes the biggest challengers. The Bills, Eagles and Chiefs feel like the three best teams in the NFL league by a comfortable margin, so it’s not surprising their quarterbacks have started to run away from the MVP pack.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers for NFL MVP Odds heading into Week 9. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for more NFL best bets.
2022 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions
Riser: Jalen Hurts +475 to +380
Hurts has had an excellent season, but his passing statistics have lagged well behind Allen and Mahomes. Hurts makes up for it a bit with his rushing production, but he entered Week 8 averaging 252.3 passing yards per game with six passing touchdowns. It’s doubtful a quarterback could win MVP with fewer than 30 touchdown passes, let alone fewer than 20.
Hurts put some of those concerns to bed with his performance in Week 8, when he torched the Pittsburgh Steelers with his arm, racking up 285 passing yards and four touchdowns in a 35-13 win. It was the first time in his NFL career he threw for more than three touchdowns, and it was also the top game of his career in terms of passer rating (140.6).
Hurts now has a legitimate chance of winning MVP. The Eagles’ remaining schedule is extremely favorable, so going something like 16-1 or 15-2 is not out of the question. If the Bills stumble down the stretch, and the Eagles finish with the best record by a comfortable margin, it’s possible Hurts would be able to overtake Allen. That scenario may be unlikely, but it’s not out of the question.
Hurts was clearly the best bet to win MVP before the start of the season at greater than 20-1, but he’s not particularly appealing at +380. He’s a clear hold.
Recommendation: Hold
Riser: Lamar Jackson +1400 to +1200
Jackson has started to fall behind the top three in the MVP race, but he did make up a little ground in Week 8. He was able to engineer a comeback win for the Baltimore Ravens over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he was basically unstoppable in the second half. The Ravens trailed 10-3 at halftime, but Jackson led his team to 24 points in the final two quarters and a 27-22 win. He did that without tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who each exited with injuries.
Jackson’s final numbers weren’t overly impressive — 238 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 43 rushing yards — but the comeback was. The Ravens (5-3) are in first place in the AFC North, and Jackson will have another opportunity to make a statement in prime time in Week 9, at the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. Another impressive performance could help him close the gap a bit further, but he’s likely too far behind at this point to jump Allen, Hurts or Mahomes.
Recommendation: Sell
Riser: Geno Smith +6750 to +4000
Smith is now tied with Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert for the sixth-shortest NFL MVP odds. Smith undoubtedly has been the biggest surprise of the season and he put together another fantastic game in Week 8, leading the Seattle Seahawks to a 27-13 win over the New York Giants. He racked up 212 yards passing and two touchdowns and leads the NFL with a 72.7% completion rate. His average of 8.23 adjusted yards per attempt ranks sixth among qualified quarterbacks, and he trails only Allen at the position in Pro Football Focus grade.
Smith is not going to win MVP this year, but it’s been an awesome redemption story. He never really got a fair shake during his time with the New York Jets, and he is making a lot of people in Seattle forget about Russell Wilson. No one imagined the Seahawks would’ve gotten a QB upgrade this season, but the numbers suggest that’s exactly what’s happened. He’s in line for a big raise this offseason.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Joe Burrow +1400 to +2500
The stage was set for Burrow to make a run at MVP. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback was coming off a monster performance against the Atlanta Falcons, and he had another juicy matchup on paper in Week 8 against the Cleveland Browns. They ranked 28th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA entering Monday Night Football. With another strong performance, Burrow could’ve moved inside +1000 and put himself right behind the leading trio.
It did not go as expected. Burrow was unable to do anything without WR Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup, and his offensive line gave him very little help against Myles Garrett and the Browns pass rush. Burrow was sacked five times in a 32-13 loss, and the Bengals’ inability to keep him upright has been by far their biggest issue. He’s been sacked at least five times in three of their four losses, and the rebuilt offensive line has not performed nearly as well as expected.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Kyler Murray +7000 to +12500
Murray’s stock had a brief revival in Week 7 with the return of WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Arizona Cardinals had a chance to upset the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8, but Murray and the rest of the team were unable to come through in big moments. They had multiple chances in the fourth quarter, but had a muffed punt, an interception, and a turnover on downs in the 34-26 loss.
The Cardinals fell to 3-5, and that was likely the final nail in Murray’s MVP coffin. He’s still talented enough to contend for this award in the future, but it’s not going to happen in 2022.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Derek Carr +5500 to +20000
Carr absolutely plummeted down the leaderboard following the Las Vegas Raiders‘ shutout loss to the Saints in Week 8. He managed just 101 passing yards, zero touchdowns and one interception, and was eventually benched for Jarrett Stidham in one of the worst QB performances of the year. The Saints defense surrendered huge performances in recent weeks, and they were also without star cornerback Marshon Lattimore, but won 24-0. Carr wasn’t really in the MVP conversation to begin with, but he’s basically off the board at this point.
Recommendation: Sell
