When the Seattle Seahawks shipped Russell Wilson off to Denver, they knew they were setting up a matchup against him — the Seahawks were scheduled to play the AFC West in 2022. The NFL delivered by scheduling the matchup for Week 1’s edition of Monday Night Football. But with the Broncos predicted to beat the Seahawks by a touchdown in Seattle, where do OddsShopper’s analysts find value in the betting markets?
Broncos vs. Seahawks Week 1 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Broncos vs. Seahawks Betting Odds
Can Wilson Turn the Broncos Around?
The Denver Broncos moved on from beleaguered second-round quarterback Drew Lock this offseason. Denver shipped him off to Seattle -- along with two first-round picks, tight end Noah Fant and other assets -- in exchange for star quarterback Russell Wilson. But Wilson didn't look like himself last year, so the Broncos are betting on a return to form for the nine-time Pro Bowler. Wilson had his second-worst rushing season to date on an efficiency basis and finished only 12th in positional defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
At worst, Wilson is an above-average passer who should elevate this offense. He recorded a respectable 6.58 net yards per attempt (NY/A) last year, an important predictive metric for team success. That fell just below his career average of 6.63 NY/A. He also enters the year with a QB Elo rating of 164, which is solidly above the league average. He'll go from working with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to another impressive receiving corps that features Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy -- although solid third man Tim Patrick has already been lost for the year. Denver's offensive line enters the year ranked 16th, an upgrade from the 25th-ranked unit Wilson played behind last year.
Once known as a defensive stalwart, the Broncos are no longer a powerhouse on that side of the ball. Denver ranked just 18th in defensive DVOA last season. Longtime star pass rusher Von Miller is now a Buffalo Bill. Still, the Broncos are trying to rebuild a solid defensive core. Cornerback Pat Surtain could develop into a shutdown corner, pass rusher Bradley Chubb could eventually fill Miller's shoes, and safety Justin Simmons is already a leader at his position. Denver added nose tackle D.J. Jones and pass rusher Randy Gregory to expedite the progress on defense as well.
Rebuilding Seahawks Looking to Prove Themselves
Lock might now be a Seattle Seahawk, but he isn't starting in Week 1. That honor goes to Geno Smith. Smith becomes perhaps the NFL's worst starter. His QB Elo rating of 132 is solid, but he recorded only 5.4 NY/A for Seattle last year and owns a career average of 5.67 NY/A. Still, he kept the Seahawks in two close games against the Saints and Steelers last year, and he led Seattle to a blowout win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Smith will need considerable help from his supporting cast, and while he might get that from his skill position players, he won't get that from the offensive line. Tyler Lockett generated the eighth-most defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) among wide receivers last year. Noah Fant ranked 15th in the metric at tight end. Despite playing only 10 games, running back Rashaad Penny generated the sixth-most DYAR at this position. He'll get to play alongside Kenneth Walker III this season, but the rookie rusher looks unlikely to play in Week 1. Still, with Seattle's offensive line ranked 32nd entering the season -- in part because both starting tackles are rookies -- that support might not be enough. It's worth noting that the unit has earned praise in the media for intelligent play, though.
Like Denver's defense, Seattle's defense has seen better days. The Seahawks ranked 21st in defensive DVOA last year. They proved especially vulnerable against the pass -- the unit ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA and gave up the second-most yards passing per game. Seattle is betting that cornerbacks Michael Jackson and rookie Tariq Woolen will at least return their secondary to the league average. The run defense, led by returning interior defensive linemen Al Woods and Poona Ford, should continue to cause problems for opposing backs at the line of scrimmage.
Broncos vs. Seahawks Prediction
Most media attention will turn to Wilson for this game, but Fant is a much intriguing target to watch closely. The former first-round pick never really had a chance to shine in Denver, but he could have a bigger role in Seattle's offense. Led by Gerald Everett last year, Seahawks tight ends averaged 3.3 targets and 2.7 receptions per game with Geno Smith under center. Offseason reporting suggests that Smith is likelier to target tight ends than Wilson had been as well.
Fant has always been an efficient target throughout his career. He averaged 5.3 targets and 3.6 receptions per game with Denver, giving him a career catch rate of 68.3%. That spiked to 75.6% last year. While Geno Smith may struggle to deliver the ball with accuracy, Fant should be able to reel in most balls that come his way -- allowing him to go over this relatively modest receptions total on Monday Night Football.
Best NFL Bet: Fant Over 2.5 Receptions (-113) at FanDuel
