We’ve already arrived at Week 3 in the NFL as some unsuspected shifts in divisional power have begun to transpire. At OddsShopper each week, the industry’s best (and FREE) tools are offered at your disposal to conquer the betting lines while managing to seize the best odds possible at any given time. In this recurring article, we’ll tackle the largest point spread movements across the league spanning Monday until early Friday for you to capitalize on the greatest disparities in odds before drastic line movements cascade over the weekend up to kickoff.
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Weekly NFL Betting Line Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks 9/23
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
Game Time: Sunday 9/25, 1:00 pm ET, FedEx Field
Opening Line: WAS +4.0 (-110)
Current Line: WAS +6.5 (-110)
Jalen Hurts has guided the Philadelphia Eagles to a 2-0 record along with a combined 62 total points scored in those victories as they try to carry that momentum into FedEx Field to battle their division rival Washington Commanders. The opening point spread as of Monday had the Commanders as +4 home dogs prior to the convincing 24-7 win of Philadelphia on Monday Night Football, which has since shifted in Philly’s favor by three points on Tuesday. As the week progressed, the movement remained fairly static within a half-point though the field goal shift toward the Eagles’ since pummeling Minnesota at home reflects the immediate public reaction to what unfolded in primetime.
Though one of Philly’s touchdown scorers from Monday in Quez Watkins remains questionable since their win, the point spread shift was likely unimpacted by any questionable injury tags of note from either team. While the Eagles eked out a three-point win on the road in Detroit, the recency bias stemming from Hurts’ stellar 333-yard passing performance on Monday against the Vikings is the probable cause for early line movement finding the Eagles as touchdown favorites on the road in Washington.
In turn, the Commanders are coming off a nine-point loss to the same Lions beaten by Philly in Week 1, potentially impacting the lack of reverse movement in the direction of Washington’s favor as the week progressed since Tuesday. Carson Wentz guided a near comeback on the road in Detroit with a convincing 337-yard, three-touchdown performance of his own. Yet the general public tends to only remember winners while the aforementioned bias of Monday Night Football’s outcome further tamped down any movement for a Commanders team who should be hungry back at home to prove themselves over again since their own Week 1 win against Jacksonville. With Philly now laying 6.5 points as road favorites, it may be worth grabbing a half-point hook on Washington as full touchdown dogs before the weekend bettors sink their teeth into this margin.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
Game Time: Sunday 9/25, 1:00 pm ET, U.S. Bank Stadium
Opening Line: MIN -7.0 (-105)
Current Line: MIN -5.5 (-112)
Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings came out of the gates piping hot in Week 1 with a convincing 23-7 divisional win at home over Aaron Rodgers‘ Packers. However, a beatdown in Philadelphia on Monday night has since reversed public betting momentum in Minnesota’s favor heading into Week 3 against the Detroit Lions. The opening betting line found the Vikings as touchdown home favorites over the 1-1 Lions yet the 17-point defeat on Monday has impacted public confidence in the Vikings offense being able to cover as much against a Detroit team that’s proven they can put plenty of points on the board this season.
Though a questionable tag on safety Harrison Smith carries some concern in stopping Detroit’s high-octane offense, the bulk of noteworthy injuries remains with Detroit. That includes T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift and 2022’s second overall pick in defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Hockenson and Swift have been limited participants in practice through Thursday and are expected to play while Hutchinson has sat out all week. The Vikings’ seven-point line advantage since Tuesday has dwindled to 5.5 as of Wednesday morning, potentially reflecting on public bettors’ doubt of Cousins’ ability to win in big moments.
The movement was likely also aided by Detroit’s upstart home victory over Washington in Week 2 where Jared Goff slung four touchdowns sans any turnovers and maintained a lead for all four quarters in the win. The Lions’ defense, however, has allowed 65 total points and 580 passing yards through two weeks where Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ receiving corps could have a monster performance at home in another high-scoring affair. Whether you’re taking the points on the Lions or the current line in favor of the Vikings, BetMGM is offering a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000! If your point spread pick of either Detroit or Minnesota comes up shy of payout, you’ll be matched with an equal value bet of your choice with no strings attached to the offer. Given the public doubt shown toward the Vikings to cover a touchdown, seizing a regressed line on Minnesota prior to reverse movement coming in over the weekend may be of value.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
Game Time: Sunday 9/25, 1:00 pm ET, MetLife Stadium
Opening Line: NYJ +4.5 (-110)
Current Line: NYJ +6.0 (-106)
Joe Flacco and the 1-1 New York Jets head home in Week 3 following a dramatic 31-30 road victory last Sunday in the final seconds over the Cleveland Browns. Facing the 0-2 Cincinnati Bengals this week, the point spread opened with the Jets as 4.5-point home underdogs, since moving by 1.5 points in favor of Cincinnati. The line movement stems in part from a head-scratching start by last year’s Super Bowl contender Bengals with the betting public assuming this is the spot they’ll get back to their 2021 late-season form.
Aside from Zach Wilson due to miss one more week before returning under center, the Jets’ injury report includes left tackle George Fant and receiver Corey Davis, both limited in practice this week yet assumed to suit up Sunday. Bengals’ right tackle La’el Collins remains questionable while coach Zac Taylor exudes confidence that he’ll be ready to play in a near must-win for Cincinnati. Despite the win on behalf of New York in Week 2, the public confidence in the Bengals to bounce back remains high following their road loss to the Dallas Cowboys, who were without Dak Prescott.
Joe Burrow has endured 13 sacks over their two losses while managing under 200 passing yards against a Dallas team he was expected to carve up in tandem with Ja’Marr Chase. The line movement toward road favorite Cincinnati comes with some ire for betting on a Jets team that managed a 6-11 record against the spread last season and was thought to have been more lucky than good in Week 2’s last-minute win over the Browns. With the Jets earning just three sacks on defense over two weeks, a potential lack of pressure on Burrow lends to the line movement that’s inched up 1.5 points since Tuesday. Though getting the Jets in a teaser parlay as upward of 12-point dogs at home may wield some appeal, giving six points with Cincinnati at slightly reduced juice against a New York team surrendering 54 combined points on defense through two games is worth snagging before the weekend movement pushes it beyond.
