Welcome to the fifth edition of a new NFL picks article from OddsShopper — the NFL Week 5 Confidence Pool Picks.
Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play.
Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any * denotes an upset.
Week 5 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Kansas City Chiefs (-325) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs showed on a national stage just how much better they are than the Buccaneers and should have little obstacle in doing the same with the Raiders. Vegas needed to face a clueless Broncos team just to secure their first win of the season, this does not have upset written anywhere near it. Patrick Mahomes is doing video game stuff on the field, so take this as the strongest play of the week.
- Buffalo Bills (-900) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
We can only short this favorite so much as injuries won’t slow down the Bills against Pittsburgh. Yes, Kenny Pickett is an upgrade at quarterback for the Steelers, but they face a Bills team off a monster comeback against Baltimore. Covering a 14-point spread is never easy, but facing a rookie quarterback making his first start on a bad team should be for Buffalo.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-325) vs. Houston Texans
The Jaguars are a good football team that lost to an even better one in Philadelphia – and the rain. There were five turnovers last week alone by Trevor Lawrence and they were still one possession away from tying the game. The Texans put up a small fight against the Chargers but should face an extra motivated Jacksonville team out to prove they are better both defensively and at protecting the football.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-375) vs. Atlanta Falcons
This is another situation where the Bucs are fully expected to bounce back after an ugly loss to the Chiefs. The biggest reason is Tom Brady still gets the benefit of the doubt, until proven otherwise with a third consecutive loss. The other part is that while the Falcons are one of the clear upstart teams this year in the NFL, they will struggle to move the ball on the ground – their bread and butter.
- Minnesota Vikings (-300) vs. Chicago Bears
The Vikings escaped London with a last-second victory, one that should ignite momentum back home against a familiar foe. The Bears’ offense is absolutely atrocious, one of the worst in the NFL. The Vikings seem to have figured out their defense and should eliminate most scoring drives from the Bears. Justin Jefferson is going to prove too much for a good Chicago defense, which should take pressure off of Kirk Cousins.
- Green Bay Packers (-360) vs. New York Giants
It’s not that the Packers are going to lose at home to the Giants this week, but part of the confidence pool is shorting heavier favorites. The caveat is that it needs to make sense. The Bills aren’t losing to the Steelers, but how shocked would anyone be if this year’s Packers team found a way to drop one to the Giants? Unfortunately for Big Blue, their quarterback situation is a mess.
- San Francisco 49ers (-240) at Carolina Panthers
The Niners destroyed the Rams’ offense this past Monday night but it’s a consistent trend against that one team. The good news is despite injuries on their offensive line and adjustments with a (kind of) new quarterback, San Francisco looks great against the Panthers. Carolina is finding new ways to lose, blowing a seven-point lead at the half to Arizona. The Niners suddenly have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a legit shot to win the NFC West.
- Tennessee Titans (-140) at Washington Commanders
Does it even matter who Washington is playing this week? The only reason why this is a nine-point play is due to a small concern with the Titans. While they picked up their second win of the year, Tennessee was held scoreless in the second half against the Colts. They play another tough, but not as good, defense in Washington. It’s just that Carson Wentz and this Commanders’ offense is horrific. They have to be the worst trio of offensive linemen, quarterback and play-calling in the NFL.
- Baltimore Ravens (-160) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens gave away their last game to the Bills and now take on a Bengals team full of false confidence. Cincy is still a bad football team that’s full of their own offensive line issues, they’ve just beaten up on worse teams over the past two weeks. The Ravens are a good team with a quarterback in Lamar Jackson that’s still having a stellar season despite a game-losing INT last week. It comes down to which quarterback makes more plays, and that is unquestionably Jackson over Joe Burrow.
- Los Angeles Chargers (-145) at Cleveland Browns
The Browns fell to 2-2 after a tight loss to the Falcons last week, while the Chargers are trying to navigate the health of their star quarterback. Justin Herbert continues to play through his rib injury, throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans, but it could catch up against a better Browns team. Cleveland is one of the league’s best rushing teams and could keep the ball enough to help mitigate the damage done by Herbert.
- Miami Dolphins (-165) at New York Jets
Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod this week for the Miami Dolphins against another team brimming with false confidence. Nothing like the Jets coming off a win against an equally bad Steelers team, masked by the return of Zach Wilson. Sure, the Jets have a shot here, but Miami is far too talented on offense and their backup quarterback is arguably the best in the NFL. He also covers spreads like it’s his job.
- Los Angeles Rams (-200) vs. Dallas Cowboys
With a shot of Dak Prescott returning, this game becomes infinitely more interesting. At the moment, Cooper Rush has been an admirable fill-in and the Rams will be reminded all week how bad their running game remains. Los Angeles has more issues outside of their inability to run, like establishing anyone else in the passing game not named Cooper Rush or Tyler Higbee.
- New England Patriots (-145) vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions lost their third game of the year in shootout fashion to the Seahawks. While Jared Goff‘s numbers were impressive, there’s a healthy expectation he regresses this week against the Patriots’ defense. With a number two, and then third-string quarterback, the Patriots took the Packers to overtime. Detroit might be healthier in the passing game but still isn’t getting much of a break with Bailey Zappe starting for New England.
- New Orleans Saints (-225) vs. Seattle Seahawks*
Seattle is a decent football team that’s .500 on the season. Pete Carroll has mustered enough out of his offense as Geno Smith and company exploded last week in Detroit. The Saints are coming back home from a bad loss and a weird week of travel. Their quarterback situation isn’t great when everyone is healthy, and a big mistake will be the difference here.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-225) at Arizona Cardinals*
The last lone undefeated team goes down this week but it’s most likely not their only trip to Arizona. The Cardinals expect Deandre Hopkins back off suspension and are seeing the wide receiver position get healthier around Kyler Murray. This is a tough matchup for the Eagles as their secondary faces one of its toughest tests this year, combined with their rush defense trying to slow down Murray.
- Denver Broncos (-174) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The good news is the league is getting this game out of the way early, despite it being a prime-time solo event. The Broncos are just as untrustworthy as the Colts but have as good of a defensive unit as their opponent. Both quarterbacks are struggling and neither seems to have anyone around them who can throw down a life raft. The Broncos sneak out a victory only because it’s at home on a short week.
