Get ready for the biggest mismatch of the NFL season. The Houston Texans (1-10-1) visit the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) on Sunday, and sportsbooks are listing the Cowboys as three-score favorites. Although Houston probably won’t put up much of a fight, bettors looking for a reason to care about Sunday’s game should tail these Texans Week 14 betting predictions.
The predictions below might not correspond exactly to available betting markets. Bettors should consider these numbers when placing their wagers on Sunday’s action. Who knows, maybe these tips will help you cash a lottery same-game parlay ticket.
Best Texans Betting Predictions for Week 14
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#1. Davis Mills Throws For 200-Plus Yards
Houston quarterback Davis Mills has averaged 214.4 passing yards per game this season. Yet the books have set his passing prop total at just 190.5, likely because Dallas has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (179.8). The Dallas pass rush, which leads the NFL in pressure percentage (29.3%), deserves the credit.
Mills has actually fared reasonably well against aggressive pass rushes. The Texans have faced four teams that blitz on at least 25% of dropbacks: the New York Giants, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders. Mills averaged 261 passing yards per game against those teams. He has completed an impressive 52.8% of his throws under pressure, which ranks fifth.
Mills has also benefited from volume. Because the Texans have struggled to keep games close, they have attempted passes on 63% of their offensive snaps, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Mills may not be the NFL’s most efficient quarterback, but he should do just enough to get at least 200 yards Sunday.
Texans Betting Prediction: Mills Throws for Plenty
#2. Chris Moore Catches a Touchdown
Chris Moore, a fourth-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens in 2016, has carved out a respectable role in Houston. The wide receiver arrived last season and caught two touchdown passes in Mills’ rookie season, and has caught another two touchdowns from Mills this season.
Houston’s leading wide receivers, Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, appear unlikely to play Sunday. The two have combined for 15 red-zone targets and three red-zone touchdowns this year. Moore’s seven red-zone targets tie him with Cooks for the second on the roster, and all of those passes came from Mills.
The lack of alternatives and Moore’s established red-zone chemistry with Mills make him the likeliest of Houston’s players to score Sunday. Although Moore may have worse odds of scoring a touchdown at some books than Dallas’ defense and special teams, getting him at any number higher than +350 is a good bet.
Texans Betting Prediction: Chris Moore Finds the End Zone
#3. Houston Lets Malik Davis Score the Last Touchdown
When the Cowboys blow out their opposition, they tend to swap out running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott for Malik Davis. Davis has seen action in four games, including a 20-point win over the Chicago Bears, a 37-point trouncing of the Minnesota Vikings, and a 35-point beatdown of the Indianapolis Colts.
Davis doesn’t get much time to showcase his talents. As a result, he’ll come into the game motivated to prove himself and should find himself lined up against a demotivated defense. Davis scored the final touchdown in last week’s game against the Colts on a 23-yard run in garbage time. A similar outcome is possible Sunday, especially with the Texans allowing an NFL-high 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game to running backs.
Texans Betting Prediction: Defense Allows Malik Davis to Score Late
