Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres Home Run Picks Today (6/23)
Home runs win slates. Here's a quick look at the best long-ball bets for Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres before first pitch — and where each pays the most.
In Summary
- Matt Olson is the headline home run bet for Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres — best price +325 at Circa.
- We compared every sportsbook's "to hit a home run" price for this game; the table below shows where each play pays the most.
- Prices swing a lot book to book, so always take the best available number — it isn't an edge by itself (a great price on a -EV bet is still -EV), but on a play that's already +EV it's how you squeeze the most out of that edge.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Here are the top home run bets for Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres on June 23, 2026, with the best price on each across 100+ sportsbooks. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; the odds below are the best available right now, so shop them on the OddsShopper home run odds screen before you bet.
Best Home Run Bets for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +325 | Circa | 23.5% | 32 |
| Michael Harris II (ATL) | +337 | Pick6 | 22.9% | 1 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +400 | BetMGM | 20.0% | 32 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +455 | Circa | 18.0% | 31 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 33 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +500 | Unibet | 16.7% | 32 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 31 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 31 |
The Top Play: Matt Olson
Matt Olson carries the shortest home run price in this game at +325 (23.5% implied), and the best number is at Circa across the 32 books pricing it. On a payout-driven market like home runs, the gap between the best and worst book is real money, so the number you take matters as much as the player you pick.
Best Value: Michael Harris II
For more payout, Michael Harris II is priced at +337 (22.9% implied), best at Pick6. Longer home run prices are high-variance by nature, so size these small and treat them as upside swings, not anchors.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- John the Bettist on Tails likes Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+400).
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+650).
- BGrebbs on Tails likes Michael Harris II Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+425).
- CharlieChip on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-105).
- ShanderBets on Tails likes Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (+105).
- Prophet on Tails likes Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-119).
More from these experts on Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres. BGrebbs, CharlieChip, John the Bettist, Prophet, ShanderBets, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 100+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
- Size for variance. Home run props are longshots; keep the stakes small and play the long run.
New to OddsShopper? It scans 100+ sportsbooks in real time and flags the best price on every home run prop (and where it's actually +EV), doing automatically what this article did by hand. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment if you subscribe.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres today? Matt Olson at +325 (Circa) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
