The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for Thursday Night Football, November 5, Jaguars at Ravens (8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium): Brenton Strange (JAX) Higher 3.5 receptions and Joe Fagnano (BAL) Higher 16.5 passing completions. Jacksonville is 5-2 and Baltimore 4-4, the Jaguars are a 10-point road favorite on ESPN's line with the total at 39.5, and the Ravens start a rookie at quarterback with Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson all on injured reserve.
The Picks: Thursday Night Football, November 5
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange (JAX) | Receptions | 3.5 | Higher |
| Joe Fagnano (BAL) | Passing completions | 16.5 | Higher |
Brenton Strange Higher 3.5 Receptions
Eric's read: the Ravens have struggled against tight ends through eight weeks, by his count 35 catches, 372 yards and six touchdowns allowed to the position, and Jacksonville has only one tight end who plays a real share of the snaps as long as the game stays competitive. Strange saw eight, eight and seven targets in the three games before the bye, so the volume is there, and at 3.5 the multiplier pushes this into plus-money territory. That is a shot he is willing to take.
The game log, per ESPN: Strange's catches this season are 2, 3, 7, 7, 5 and 2 with the bye in Week 7, over 3.5 in three of seven games, and his targets in Weeks 4 through 6 were 8, 8 and 7 before the two-target night in last week's 42-7 rout of Indianapolis, when Jacksonville barely needed to throw. His best lines came in the close games: 7 catches for 95 yards against Cincinnati and 7 for 68 against Philadelphia. His one touchdown came in Week 1 against Cleveland.
Joe Fagnano Higher 16.5 Passing Completions
Eric's read: the Ravens are down to a quarterback nobody planned on starting, and while the debut did not go well, Fagnano has had the four days of a short week to prepare and enters as a 10-point home underdog. That signals passing volume by default. Unless Derrick Henry (BAL) breaks a long one, Baltimore is likely to spend the night in passing downs, and with Jacksonville allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush in the league by Eric's numbers, his guess is the Ravens scheme up a lot of Zay Flowers (BAL) and Justice Hill (BAL) to make life easier on the UConn product.
The facts, per ESPN: Fagnano is a rookie out of UConn making his second NFL start. In his first, last week's 36-10 loss at Buffalo, he went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with no touchdowns, one interception and three sacks taken. Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson are all on injured reserve, so the Ravens' quarterback room is Fagnano, Kedon Slovis and Austin Reed. The line needs seven more completions than he managed a week ago, and the case for it is the game script, not the arm: a double-digit underdog at home, on a short week, with 39.5 as the total.
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