The cheapest ticket to a big payout on any slate is a home run prop. Below are the bats we like in Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers, with the best price on each.
On the board for Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Teoscar Hernández, Andy Pages are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +300 | NoVig | 25.0% | 32 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +375 | Bet365 | 21.1% | 4 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +430 | ProphetX | 18.9% | 31 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +456 | NoVig | 18.0% | 31 |
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 31 |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | +488 | NoVig | 17.0% | 32 |
| Jahmai Jones (BOS) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 15 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 25 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 2, 2026 · 01:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium: park index 117.5 · wind 5 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +300 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +296 · ProphetX +294 · NoVig +300
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +440 at Circa | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +407 · NoVig +400
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 54% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · ProphetX +608 · NoVig +614
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 42% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +436 · NoVig +488
- Enrique Hernández (LAD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +552 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · NoVig +545
- Andy Pages (LAD) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +475 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +436 · NoVig +471
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +592 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +567
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MisterMarkot on Tails likes these plays:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- Under 8.5 Total Runs (-115) Bet now
- Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-130) Bet now
- Los Angeles Dodgers Under 0.5 Total Runs 1I
- Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-153) Bet now → BetOpenly
- …plus 4 more on their full Tails card.
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Anthony Seigler Under 0.5 Total Hits (+150). Bet now → Polymarket
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Under 8.5 Total Runs (-160). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails likes Shohei Ohtani 0.5 Total Home Runs (+252).
- Bank of Dennis on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+130). Bet now
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers. DFSnDonuts Picks, JediModi, MisterMarkot, Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers today? Shohei Ohtani at +300 (NoVig) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
