Munetaka Murakami at +292 headlined the Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays: Munetaka Murakami, Junior Caminero, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Víctor Víctor Mesa, Cedric Mullins are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +292 | NoVig | 25.5% | 30 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +313 | Kalshi | 24.2% | 32 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% | 29 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +390 | BetMGM 🎁 | 20.4% | 30 |
| Víctor Víctor Mesa (MIA) | +500 | Bally | 16.7% | 7 |
| Cedric Mullins (TB) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 30 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) | +556 | DraftKings 🎁 | 15.2% | 22 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | +590 | NoVig | 14.5% | 32 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated July 31, 2026 · 02:26 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 119.4 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 51% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +313 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +309 · NoVig +300
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 49% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +350 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +328 · NoVig +344
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +292 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +245 · ProphetX +284 · NoVig +292
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 65% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +390 at BetMGM | exchanges: ProphetX +304 · NoVig +344
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 55% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +590 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +590
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 51% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +590
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +556 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- Braden Montgomery (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +950 at BetRivers | exchanges: NoVig +900
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- FOTP on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-115). Bet now
- EMac on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (+160). Bet now → NoVig
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-129). Bet now
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails (#1 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Hunter Feduccia Over 0.5 Total Batter Strikeouts (-115). Bet now → BetMGM
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (+140). Bet now
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays. DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
