Lindy's MLB Picks Today For Every Game (Friday, July 31)
Eric Lindquist's MLB picks today almost didn't happen. His back went out at the gym Friday morning, and by the time he sat down to record it was nearly 4 a.m. Eastern, pain meds in, daughter asleep, and a promise to "talk fast" and "talk efficiently" through the board. That's the shape of this card: leaner than usual, but every play that survived the pain still clears his bar, and there are seven of them.
Elly De La — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindquist's fired plays for Friday are a Cincinnati Reds moneyline paired with an Elly De La Cruz (CIN) prop, a Kyle Leahy (STL) outs-under, a small Twins-Mariners total under, a half-unit Daylen Lile (WSH) home run, a Washington Nationals moneyline, and a small Detroit Tigers run line. The full breakdown of every play, lean, and pass, plus where the OddsShopper board's own math agrees with him, is below.
Watch The Video
The full late-night show is embedded above, recorded live as Lindquist worked through the board in real time. Watch on YouTube.
In Summary: Friday's Card
- Fired: Cincinnati Reds (CIN) moneyline vs. Pittsburgh, quarter unit. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) hitting prop, quarter unit. Kyle Leahy (STL) under 16.5 outs vs. Toronto. Twins-Mariners total under 8, small play. Daylen Lile (WSH) to homer, half unit (0.55u). Washington Nationals (WSH) moneyline vs. Atlanta. Detroit Tigers (DET) run line vs. the Athletics, small play.
- Leans, Not Fired: Dylan Cease (TOR) over 7.5 strikeouts vs. St. Louis. Miami Marlins (MIA) moneyline vs. the Mets, waiting on numbers. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Houston. Hunter Brown (HOU) under strikeouts vs. Texas. Garrett Mitchell (MIL) to homer vs. the Angels. Mitch Bratt (AZ) under 4 strikeouts on PrizePicks vs. Cleveland. Tristan Peters (CWS) as a home run longshot vs. Tampa Bay.
- Passed: Yankees (NYY) at Cubs (CHC): Wrigley wind not out enough. Cleveland (CLE) run line vs. Arizona. Jake McCarthy (COL) to homer vs. Kansas City. San Francisco (SF) moneyline vs. San Diego. Phillies (PHI) at Orioles (BAL): price and weather never got interesting.
| Game | Play | Size | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates @ Reds | Cincinnati (CIN) moneyline + Elly De La Cruz (CIN) hitting prop | Quarter unit each | Paul Skenes' velocity has dipped 1-3 mph this season and he's allowing more contact; De La Cruz gets the most at-bats atop the lineup to capitalize. |
| Cardinals @ Blue Jays | Kyle Leahy (STL) under 16.5 outs | Standard | Leahy is coming off 95 and 102 pitches in his last two starts (his second-most and most of the season), a workload flag that points to an early hook. |
| Twins @ Mariners | Total under 8 | Small play | Bryce Miller (SEA) shouldn't be this big a favorite; the extra vig on a whole-number, push-able total is the only reason this stayed small. |
| Nationals @ Braves | Daylen Lile (WSH) to homer | Half unit (0.55u) | Lile is back in the five-hole against right-handers with Dylan Crews sliding up the order: a real lineup bump, not just recency. |
| Nationals @ Braves | Washington (WSH) moneyline | Standard | Foster Griffin (WSH) is a lefty facing an Atlanta lineup that's drastically worse against left-handed pitching than right. |
| Tigers @ Athletics | Detroit (DET) run line | Small play | The ninth-inning bump on a Tigers side Lindquist otherwise likes, sized down after going 2-4 on run lines this week. |
Shop The Number Before You Fire
None of these plays mean anything if you're not getting the actual price. Books move independently of each other by the hour, which is the entire case for shopping a number instead of betting whatever your one app shows. Run each of these through the OddsShopper odds screen before you click, and check DraftKings' current sign-up offer if you need a new book in the rotation; it's one of the two books carrying the best number on tonight's board below. If you've already got a free bet sitting in an app from a previous offer, the free bet converter turns it into cash value instead of letting it expire unused. Curious why the same bet pays differently at two books in the first place? How sportsbooks make money walks through the vig start to finish.
Get the same tools Lindquist uses to build this card every single night.
Two Quarter-Unit Plays To Open The Card: Cincinnati And Elly De La Cruz
Lindquist opened with a pair of connected plays on the same game. Paul Skenes (PIT) is still one of the best arms in baseball, but the fastball that used to sit around 98 has dipped 1-3 mph as the season's gone on, and he's giving up noticeably more contact over the last month than his strikeout numbers suggest. "We want to be predictive, not reactive," Lindquist put it. The raw stuff going forward matters more than the season-long results, which is the case for the Cincinnati Reds moneyline, a quarter unit. The second leg targets the hitter best positioned to exploit that extra contact: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), leading off and getting the most at-bats in the lineup, at a plus-money price for a quarter unit of his own. Foster Griffin's start against Atlanta later on this same card leans on a similar idea (Bryce Elder allowing a .357 ISO to lefties and .321 to righties over his last 30 days), but that's a fired half-unit home run play in its own right, and it's coming.
That contact-quality lens carries straight into the next start of the night.
A Workload Red Flag On Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy (STL) draws the Toronto Blue Jays, a lineup that isn't good on paper but fights counts, a group built around slap-happy, first-strike-averse bats like Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes. Leahy gets a lot of ground balls against that kind of contact, which normally plays fine. What doesn't is his workload: 95 and 102 pitches in his last two starts, his second-most and most of the season. That combination (a grinding lineup and a starter already stretched thin) points to an early exit and fewer outs than the market number suggests. Under 16.5 outs is the play, standard size.
Paul Skenes' own strikeout total tells a similar-but-opposite story: the OddsShopper board has his Under 8.5 strikeouts fair at -128 against a DraftKings price of -152, no edge there for a bettor chasing a number. Lindquist's play on this game was always the moneyline and De La Cruz, not Skenes' strikeout total.
A Small Total Under In Seattle
The last play added to the card, and one that almost got left off entirely, is the Twins-Mariners total under 8. Bryce Miller (SEA) has been a darling this season, but Lindquist doesn't think he should be this big a favorite, and the vig on an under-8 total is a rough cost to pay: a whole-number line like 8 can push, unlike a half-point 7.5 or 8.5, so the book bakes extra juice into both sides to cover it. It's a small play precisely because of that extra cost, not a full-size lean.
The Half-Unit Play: Daylen Lile's Home Run Number
The biggest bet on the card by size is Daylen Lile (WSH), and it's built on an actual lineup change, not a hot streak. Washington moved him back up to the five-hole against right-handers once Dylan Crews slid up the order and Curtis Mead left the roster: a real bump in expected plate appearances and RBI opportunities, not just recency bias off a good week. Lindquist had been early on Lile before and is back on him again now that the number's dropped to a price he called "way too good," 0.55 units to win. The companion play is the Washington Nationals moneyline outright: Foster Griffin (WSH) is a lefty, and Atlanta's lineup (Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin) is drastically worse against left-handed pitching than right, a split Lindquist and the site's own MLB Research Show have already broken down. Washington lost Thursday despite strong nights from Luis Garcia Jr. and Lile himself; the read is that Friday flips that result.
Foster Griffin's own strikeout market, for what it's worth, isn't offering anything extra: the OddsShopper board has his Under 4.5 strikeouts fair at +123 with no current bettable price posted, so there's no edge to chase there beyond Lindquist's home run and moneyline reads.
A Small Run Line In Detroit
Detroit Tigers (DET) on the run line closes out the sized plays, and it's a small one by design. Jeffrey Springs (ATH) has real struggles this season, and Lindquist likes Detroit's stuff enough to want the ninth-inning cushion a run line provides. But he's only played six run lines all season, three of those just this week, and two of those three (both on Minnesota) lost, so this one stays small rather than pressing a market that's been running cold for him lately. Riley Greene (DET) and Dillon Dingler (DET) both looked live in the discussion, but at long enough prices for props of their own, Lindquist passed on backing them directly and stuck with the team side instead.
Where The OddsShopper Board Agrees (And Disagrees) With The Card
Running the fair-value math separately from Lindquist's own reads turns up real value on a few names already in this article, and a useful gut-check on a few others.
| Player (Team) | Prop | Fair price | Best price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Johnston (COL) | Under 0.5 hits | +174 | +182 (Bet365) | +2.9% |
| Michael Wacha (KC) | Under 6.5 hits allowed | +108 | +110 (Bet365) | +1.0% |
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Under 5.5 strikeouts | +113 | +115 (Bet365) | +0.9% |
| Michael Wacha (KC) | Under 4.5 strikeouts | -114 | -112 (DraftKings) | +0.8% |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | Under 1.5 hits | -212 | -210 (Bet365) | +0.3% |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | Under 5.5 strikeouts | +128 | +126 (FanDuel) | -0.9% (no edge) |
| Jake McCarthy (COL) | Under 1.5 hits | -179 | -180 (Bet365) | -0.2% (no edge) |
The most interesting row is the one attached to a game Lindquist skipped entirely: he passed on the Yankees-Cubs game outright, but the board's math still finds a real edge on Shota Imanaga (CHC) going under 5.5 strikeouts, a +0.9% gap that has nothing to do with which side wins. On the other end, the Under 1.5 hits number on Jake McCarthy is dead flat, no edge either way, which lines up with Lindquist's own call to pass on backing McCarthy's home run prop tonight. Michael Wacha draws real value in Colorado's thinner-than-usual air twice over, both on hits allowed and strikeouts, which fits the muted weather conditions (falling temperatures, rising barometric pressure) Lindquist flagged for that game. And on Hunter Brown, whose strikeout under is one of tonight's leans, the market's already fair; the case for that lean is Brown's diminished stuff coming off the IL, not a price gap.
A Worked Example: How Troy Johnston's 2.9% Edge Gets Calculated
Take the top row of that table. A price of +174 converts to an implied probability with a simple formula: 100 ÷ (174 + 100), or 36.5%. Strip the vig out of the full board and that's the fair number: Troy Johnston (COL) going under 0.5 hits is roughly a 36.5% shot. The best number actually on the market, +182 at Bet365, implies a slightly lower 35.5% (100 ÷ (182 + 100)). Betting a 36.5%-likely outcome at a price that only implies 35.5% is the entire definition of the edge: you're getting paid as if the true rate were lower than it is. Divide that gap by the market's own implied rate, (36.5% − 35.5%) ÷ 35.5%, and that relative markup is where the +2.9% edge comes from. Run that same divide-by-the-market's-implied-rate formula on any of the other six rows above and it holds every time. For the full breakdown of that conversion, how to read betting odds covers it start to finish, and finding +EV bets walks through applying it across an entire board instead of one prop at a time.
Leans Getting Priced, Not Pulled
A handful of games earned real interest without a fired play:
- Dylan Cease (TOR) Over 7.5 Strikeouts vs. St. Louis. Interest is there given how sharp his stuff has looked, but Lindquist is waiting on adjusted lines before committing.
- Miami Marlins (MIA) Moneyline vs. the Mets. A lean while more numbers open on the Miami side; Kyle Stowers looks strong against Freddy Peralta, who's already been linked in trade talks.
- Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Over 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Houston. He pitches deep into games and isn't tangled up in deadline rumors.
- Hunter Brown (HOU) Under Strikeouts vs. Texas. Velocity and strikeout stuff are both down since his return from the IL.
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) To Homer vs. the Angels. Opened well longer than it should be against Ryan Johnson, a pitcher who's barely struck anyone out this year; Lindquist has the fair number meaningfully shorter than what's posted.
- Mitch Bratt (AZ) Under 4 Strikeouts On PrizePicks vs. Cleveland: pick'em-market interest, not a sportsbook play.
- Tristan Peters (CWS) As A Home Run Longshot vs. Tampa Bay, flagged as a price worth watching rather than a number locked in on air.
Where The Card Passed
Not every good story turned into a bet. The Yankees (NYY) at Cubs (CHC) game had a real angle: Shonyi Imanaga's fly-ball tendencies into Wrigley's wind. But with the wind blowing across the field instead of straight out, Lindquist called it a pass; the board's own Imanaga strikeout edge above is the only real number worth taking from that game. Cleveland (CLE) on the run line got the same treatment: with Jose Ramirez (CLE) and Brayan Rocchio (CLE) both hitting from the right side into a park that doesn't favor right-handed power, Lindquist steered clear. The McCarthy (COL) home run prop, a pure long shot, didn't clear the bar either, backed up by the flat market read above. San Francisco's (SF) moneyline against San Diego got floated and then dropped; Carson Whisenhunt has been good enough against the Padres to make it a pass rather than a lean. And Phillies (PHI) at Orioles (BAL) never generated enough interest: mitigated wind, middling weather, and pricing Lindquist called "nuked right from the get-go" kept that game off the card completely.
For the daily menu of free picks, the OddsShopper expert picks page posts them every morning, and the previous edition of this card is at Lindy's MLB Picks (7/27).
FAQ: Lindy's MLB Picks Today
What are Lindy's MLB picks today from Lindy's Leans Likes and Locks? Seven plays got fired Friday despite a late-night, pain-meds recording: a Cincinnati Reds moneyline paired with an Elly De La Cruz prop, a Kyle Leahy outs-under, a small Twins-Mariners total under, a half-unit Daylen Lile home run, a Washington Nationals moneyline, and a small Detroit run line.
Does Lindy have MLB strikeout picks today? The fired outs play is Kyle Leahy going under 16.5 outs against Toronto. Dylan Cease over 7.5 strikeouts, Nathan Eovaldi over 6.5, and Hunter Brown under his own number all stayed leans rather than fired plays.
What about MLB moneyline picks today? Cincinnati and Washington both got fired moneylines. Miami and San Francisco stayed leans-and-passes rather than full plays.
Where can I watch the full show? The complete Friday stream is embedded above: watch it on YouTube.
