Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Home Run Picks Today (8/1)
Few bets are more fun than calling a home run before it happens — one swing and the ticket cashes. Here's where the long-ball value looks best in Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays.
On the board for Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero, Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Víctor Víctor Mesa, Yandy Díaz are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +400 | NoVig | 20.0% | 33 |
| Munetaka Murakami (CHW) | +450 | Unibet | 18.2% | 33 |
| Miguel Vargas (CHW) | +463 | Pinnacle | 17.8% | 33 |
| Colson Montgomery (CHW) | +475 | Unibet | 17.4% | 30 |
| Víctor Víctor Mesa (MIA) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 7 |
| Yandy Díaz (TB) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 31 |
| Ryan Vilade (TB) | +841 | Kalshi | 10.6% | 28 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CHW) | +850 | Bet365 | 10.5% | 30 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 1, 2026 · 01:35 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 120.3 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +373 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +365
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +387 · NoVig +400
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +433 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +421 · NoVig +426
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 65% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +416 · NoVig +426
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +598 · NoVig +700
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +657 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +567
- Ryan Vilade (TB) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +770 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +725 · NoVig +770
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +750 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +669
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails (#1 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes these plays:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#10 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.0 Run Line (-112). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails (#7 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Munetaka Murakami 0.5 Total Home Runs (+380).
- The Bet Baba on Tails likes Jonathan Aranda Over 0.5 Total Singles (+105). Bet now → FanDuel
- Rounding Third on Tails likes Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+426).
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-128). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -0.5 Run Line 1st5 (-115). Bet now
- EMac on Tails likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (+160). Bet now → NoVig
- MassMoneyline on Tails (#4 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 Run Line (+140). Bet now
More from these experts on Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays. DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP, JediModi, MisterMarkot, Rebel Mickie, Rounding Third, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays today? Junior Caminero at +400 (NoVig) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
