Lindy's MLB picks for August 7, 2026: this was Eric Lindquist's card for August 7, 2026, and that slate has been played, so the plays below are the record of that night. As of September 4, 2026, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks runs daily through the season; today's full slate, with every book's price on every game, is on the live MLB odds screen.
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Lindy's MLB picks for Friday, August 7 came down to seven official plays out of 15 games on the board: a Jose Soriano (TOR) strikeout under, a Max Fried (NYY) strikeout over, a Cleveland Guardians run line, a Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) home run swing, a St. Louis Cardinals first-five run line, a Roki Sasaki (LAD) strikeout ladder, and a Drew Rasmussen (TB) strikeout over to close the show. Eric Lindquist is coming off a rough Thursday that a Royce Lewis home run mostly salvaged, and he opened this show admitting it plainly: he needs to be better in August.
Jose Soriano, making his Blue Jays debut on today's board.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Friday, August 7 has seven official plays: Jose Soriano under 4.5 strikeouts (-106), Max Fried over 6+ strikeouts, the Cleveland Guardians run line (+135), Bobby Witt Jr. to homer (+390), the St. Louis Cardinals first-five run line (-114 at FanDuel), a Roki Sasaki strikeout ladder, and Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts. One of his favorites of the day is the Cardinals first five. The full breakdown of all seven plays, including why the Cardinals number graded out as the best edge on the board, is below.
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The Plays At A Glance
- Jose Soriano (TOR) under 4.5 strikeouts, -106, making his Blue Jays debut against the Phillies
- Max Fried (NYY) over 6+ strikeouts vs the Atlanta Braves, a quarter unit
- Cleveland Guardians run line +1.5, +135 vs the White Sox, a quarter unit
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) to hit a home run, +390 vs Cubs starter Kevin Gausman
- St. Louis Cardinals first-five run line -0.5, -114 at FanDuel vs the Rockies, one of his favorite plays of the day
- Roki Sasaki (LAD) strikeout ladder vs the Arizona Diamondbacks, over 5.5 / 7 / 8, laddered
- Drew Rasmussen (TB) over 5.5 strikeouts vs the Seattle Mariners, his last play of the day
We also tracked several spots Lindy passed on: a Mets-Pirates total he wouldn't touch without more clarity on rain at first pitch, a Zack Wheeler (PHI) strikeout market he's keeping off for now, and a Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) strikeout ladder he liked the shape of but wouldn't pay the price for. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Jose Soriano's Blue Jays Debut
Soriano got traded to Toronto and was almost flipped again before he ever threw a pitch for the club, which Lindy called comical. The bigger signal for this specific market: his strikeout stuff has trended down since the tail end of his time with the Angels, he's a ground-ball-heavy arm, and the Blue Jays don't have a ton riding on his workload in his organization debut. That points to a short, managed outing.
The Phillies lineup gives him a runway to work with, too. Facing bats like Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber, a ground-ball-heavy arm like Soriano's can get a better price than a swing-and-miss pitcher would. Lindy priced this closer to a 56% win probability against a posted -106, inside standard vig, which is enough of a gap that he called it a play. Soriano under 4.5 strikeouts at -106. See our full MLB strikeout props board for how the rest of the day's pitchers price out.
Max Fried's Workload Is Climbing
Fried's pitch counts have crept up start to start: 57, then 66, then 78. Lindy reads that as the plan, with the Yankees stretching him out in controlled increments. He got bludgeoned by the White Sox in between (four strikeouts, poor stuff) but bounced back with seven strikeouts and a season-high 78 pitches against the Cubs. Lindy is betting on that trend line continuing against a Braves team that has won eight straight games but is only a little better than league average at avoiding strikeouts against lefties. Eli White is out of Atlanta's lineup, having since been traded to the Red Sox, which only thins the lineup further. Fried over 6+ strikeouts, a quarter-unit play. His words: "small, small play here," but a play nonetheless.
Cleveland Gets The Bullpen Edge
Cleveland got blown out 13-6 on Thursday but didn't have to burn its main bullpen arms doing it. Chicago's bullpen, on the other hand, is running on fumes.
The read here is entirely about who's available. On Wednesday, the White Sox needed 18 pitches from Sean Newcomb and 19 from a reliever Lindy calls "Brazan." Brazan and lefty Chris Murphy both pitched again Thursday, in that same 13-6 game, which likely takes them off the board for Friday. Newcombe wasn't called on again Thursday, and Grant Taylor's group is still available too, not worn down the way Chicago's top two relievers are. A bullpen-fatigue edge like that is exactly the small, repeatable spot Lindy looks for. Guardians run line +1.5 at +135, a quarter unit.
Bobby Witt Jr. Gets Another Home Run Swing
Witt is running cold in the power department by any real measure. He has one home run all season on 74 batted balls against sub-97 mph fastballs, despite a 26-degree average launch angle and 91.8 mph average exit velocity. He hit a ball over 105 mph Thursday that would have left the park in 10 of 30 stadiums, just not in Kauffman. Lindy is going back to the well against Cubs starter Kevin Gausman, whose splitter has been hit hard this year (a 175-plus expected ISO allowed to right-handed hitters), and against a Cubs bullpen that gives up too much loft. Witt gets four or five at-bats in this one. Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run, +390.
One Of Lindy's Favorite Plays: Cardinals First Five
Lindy doesn't rank his plays by favorite in the moment, he said, but the St. Louis first-five run line "jumped off the page" with what he modeled as a 6% edge, the best number on the board. Ryan Feltner has been rough for Colorado this year, and Lindy isn't a fan of backing anything at Busch Stadium unless the game environment is unusual, which this one isn't (wind slightly out, 85 degrees, and August humidity in St. Louis that runs above 70% most nights). Kyle Leahy gets a ton of ground balls, which plays well against a pull-happy Rockies lineup outside of Mickey Moniak.
Worked Example: What -114 Actually Costs You
A -114 price on a bet implies a win probability of 53.3% (114 divided by 114 plus 100). That is the number the sportsbook needs to be right to break even. Lindy's edge case on the Cardinals first five is that his own model has St. Louis winning that spread more often than a 53.3% number implies, by roughly 6 percentage points. That gap, not the size of the favorite, is the entire reason this graded out as the best price on his card. St. Louis Cardinals first-five run line -0.5 at -114, on FanDuel. See FanDuel's current offer, and how to claim it if you're setting up an account to shop that number yourself.
Roki Sasaki's Strikeout Ladder
Lindy also built a ladder on Roki Sasaki (LAD) against the Arizona Diamondbacks and starter Merrill Kelly, one of the rare one-way markets he said he actually likes enough to talk about on the show. His case: Sasaki has carried the best Stuff+ grade of any starter in baseball since July 6, ahead of names like Drew Rasmussen, Logan Gilbert, Max Fried, Zack Wheeler, and Kevin Gausman, built on a 107 Stuff+ fastball, a 110 Stuff+ slider, and a 124 Stuff+ splitter that's generating a heavy swinging-strike rate. The standard strikeout ladder starts at 4.5; Lindy skipped straight to over 5.5 at +150 for 0.3 units, added over 7 at +150 for 0.2 units, and topped it with a longshot over 8. His own fair number on that top rung runs closer to +240. One sportsbook, DraftKings, has that same over 8 priced all the way out to +309, which is the gap he's betting. Arizona isn't historically a great strikeout matchup, but Lindy flagged a possible lineup shuffle worth watching: newly acquired Lars Nootbaar and Max Kepler are in the mix, one of them could bat ahead of Gabriel Moreno, and Adrian Del Castillo has a chance to get into the lineup too. Roki Sasaki over 5.5 / 7 / 8 strikeouts, laddered.
The Closer: Drew Rasmussen's Strikeout Total
Lindy has backed Rasmussen's strikeout overs essentially all season and says he can't remember ever taking the under on him. The number is unusually low Friday, 5.5 instead of the standard mark, mostly because Luke Raley, who is likely done for the year, is out of the Seattle lineup, and his likely replacement in that spot, Taylor Ward, doesn't strike out nearly as much. Cal Raleigh also got the day off, thinning the Mariners lineup further. Lindy's case: Rasmussen has been one of the best swing-and-miss arms in baseball all year, and a line dragged down by lineup replacement value is still beatable. Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts, his last play of the show, and one he called fantastic.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano (TOR) | Under 4.5 strikeouts | -106 |
| Max Fried (NYY) | Over 6+ strikeouts | Quarter unit |
| Cleveland Guardians | Run line +1.5 | +135, quarter unit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | To hit a home run | +390 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | First five run line -0.5 | -114 (FanDuel) |
| Roki Sasaki (LAD) | Strikeout ladder, over 5.5 / 7 / 8 | Laddered, see breakdown above |
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | Last play of the day |
The Cardinals first five is one of the plays Lindy circled hardest, but the through-line across the whole card is the one he keeps repeating: he doesn't want to need a card full of home run props just to scrape back to break even, and he doesn't want them to be just a cherry on top either. He wants them to be the nuclear bombs, built on top of smaller, repeatable edges like the Cardinals first five and the Guardians run line, taken every day they're real. We check the same book-by-book board he's working from every morning, and the live MLB odds screen shows every one of these markets moving in real time. For the rest of tonight's board, our MLB hits props breakdown covers the contact side Lindy didn't get to on this show.
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