Lindy's MLB Picks: Wednesday, August 12 Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy's MLB picks for Wednesday, August 12 came down to seven official plays across a pitching-heavy, 15-game card: a Zebby Matthews (MIN) strikeout over, a Zack Wheeler (PHI) strikeout over he wants locked in before the number climbs, a Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline, a Nationals-Cubs total, a Kansas City Royals moneyline dog, a Munetaka Murakami (CWS) home run leg built into a same-night double-homer combo, and the play he called his outright favorite of the day: a Chase DeLauter (CLE) hits prop against a lefty who has quietly fallen apart in that split. Eric Lindquist opened the show near break-even off Tuesday's card: a Miami first-five run line and a Sean Burke (CWS) strikeout ladder cashed, a Junior Caminero (TB) walk prop hit at plus money, but a Hunter Goodman (COL) near-miss (a ball that leaves 23 of 30 parks) stung enough to keep the day roughly flat.
New in this edition: where Kalshi lists a matching market, we show its live price under the pick — Kalshi contracts pay $1, so a price in cents reads directly as an implied probability (a 49¢ contract is roughly a 49% chance).
Zebby Matthews — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Wednesday, August 12 has seven official plays: Zebby Matthews over 5.5 strikeouts (+130, 3 units), Zack Wheeler over 5.5 strikeouts, the Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline (even money), the Nationals-Cubs total over 9.5, the Kansas City Royals moneyline as a dog, Munetaka Murakami to homer as part of a same-night double-homer combo, and his favorite of the day: Chase DeLauter over 1.5 hits at -104. The full breakdown of all seven plays, including why the DeLauter play graded out as the best number on his board, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel. Watch him work through every matchup, game by game. If you'd rather shop these numbers yourself while you watch, OddsShopper Pro is free to try for 7 days.
The Plays At A Glance
- Zebby Matthews (MIN) over 5.5 strikeouts, +130, 3 units, vs the Baltimore Orioles
- Zack Wheeler (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts vs the St. Louis Cardinals, backed early before the number moves
- Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline, even money vs the Miami Marlins, a small sliver
- Nationals-Cubs Total over 9.5, a small play built around a bullpen-game question mark in Washington
- Kansas City Royals moneyline, a dog play, a quarter unit vs the Los Angeles Dodgers
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) to hit a home run vs Cincinnati's Rhett Lowder, paired into a same-night double-homer combo
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) over 1.5 hits, -104, vs Detroit's Framber Valdez, his favorite play of the day
He also talked through several spots he passed on: a Tampa Bay Rays run line he's still waiting on a number for, a Cole Young (SEA) leadoff prop he's keeping off for now, and a Mets-Braves total he liked the shape of but said he wouldn't personally play. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Zebby Matthews Leans Into The Strikeouts
Matthews has struck out 30.8% of hitters over his last two starts and 30% over his last three, a jump Lindy ties to a curveball that's moving differently off the same arm slot as the rest of his mix. Hitters aren't picking it up early. Baltimore's lineup is already swing-and-miss heavy against righties by construction, which is exactly the matchup Matthews needs. Lindy sliced the size down to 3 units instead of going heavier, noting the number could move if the market catches up to the recent strikeout jump. Zebby Matthews over 5.5 strikeouts, +130, 3 units. See our MLB strikeout props board for how the rest of the day's arms price out.
Locking In Zack Wheeler Before The Number Moves
The connective thread from Matthews carries straight into Wheeler: Lindy has made a habit this summer of getting to strikeout numbers early, before the board adjusts. St. Louis just moved Lars Nootbaar out via trade, which puts more right-handed bats (Nathan Church among them) into an outfield that was already close to league-average against right-handed pitching over the last month and a half. Wheeler's pedigree against a lineup that's lost a lefty bat is the case. "It's going to fly," Lindy said of the number. Zack Wheeler over 5.5 strikeouts, backed before it moves.
The Pirates Get A Bullpen Coin Flip Lindy Likes
Pittsburgh is expected to start Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) against Janson Junk (MIA), and Lindy called Mlodzinski the better of the two arms with a slightly better bullpen behind him. The Pirates also didn't have to empty their relief corps in a lopsided loss the night before, unlike a Marlins pen that's already been leaned on. "I like coin flips that aren't coin flips," is how he framed even-money prices that his own numbers put closer to 55%. Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline, even money, a small sliver.
On Kalshi: the Pirates to win trades at 49¢ (live at publish).
A Bullpen Game In Washington Pushes The Total
The Nationals segment carries the most uncertainty on the board. MLB.com's listed starter, Miles Mikolas (WSH), already threw three innings in relief the night before (the seventh, eighth, and ninth), so he can't realistically start again on regular rest, and Washington's bullpen is one of the thinnest in baseball. Add in a strong hitting environment at Nationals Park (85 degrees, 60% humidity, wind only slightly in), and Lindy leans toward the total clearing rather than a specific arm. Nationals-Cubs total over 9.5, a small play.
On Kalshi: over 9.5 total runs in Cubs-Nationals trades at 49¢ (live at publish).
Backing The Royals To Beat A Lopsided Number
Kansas City is a heavy underdog in Los Angeles behind Eric Lauer (LAD), and Lindy's read is that the price overstates the gap. His own model has the Royals closer to plus-170 or plus-165 against a line the market has pushed out toward the Dodgers' side (the board showed Dodgers prices as low as -220 during the show). Kansas City's bullpen is flat-out bad, which is the real risk here, but Lindy called taking the extra plus-money "the bait" he had to take. Kansas City Royals moneyline, a quarter unit.
On Kalshi: the Royals to win trades at 34¢ (live at publish).
Worked Example: What A Plus-170 Number Actually Means
A plus-170 price on the Royals implies roughly a 37% win probability (100 divided by 170 plus 100). If Lindy's model has Kansas City's true chance of winning above that number, which is his stated case here, the gap between the model number and the market number is the entire edge, independent of whether the Royals are actually good. That's the same logic behind every play on this card: price against a fair number, not gut feel about who's better. Our live MLB odds screen shows moneyline prices like this one moving in real time across books.
Munetaka Murakami's Double-Homer Combo
This is where the Reds-White Sox game turns into the wildest card on the board. Lindy's data likes Rhett Lowder (CIN) home run numbers allowed against lefties far less than Lowder's overall results suggest: an extreme fly-ball mix that he thinks is due for real regression in a hitter-friendly park with humidity near 90%. Munetaka Murakami, batting second for Chicago, brings the lefty power to attack it. Lindy paired Murakami's homer leg into a same-night, two-home-run combo he called the shortest price he's bet all season on that kind of ticket, a signal of how much he trusts the Lowder-regression angle, not a claim that it's a safe bet. Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run, the anchor leg of that combo.
His Favorite Play Of The Day: A Lefty-Proof Matchup For Chase DeLauter
Every projection source Lindy checked lined up on the same side of this one, which is exactly why it's his favorite play of the day. Framber Valdez (DET) has been a shell of his usual self against left-handed hitters all season, running a 28.7% strikeout rate to them that Lindy called clearly broken form. DeLauter doesn't fit the profile Valdez usually dominates: an 11% walk rate, a 14.5% strikeout rate against lefties, a .274 expected batting average and a .346 expected wOBA. He also bats in a lineup spot that puts him at the plate in the ninth inning as the road team, an extra at-bat most of the board doesn't get. Chase DeLauter over 1.5 hits, -104, favorite play of the day.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews (MIN) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | +130, 3 units |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | Backed early |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Moneyline | Even money |
| Nationals-Cubs | Total over 9.5 | Small play |
| Kansas City Royals | Moneyline (dog) | Quarter unit |
| Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | To hit a home run | Anchor of a double-homer combo |
| Chase DeLauter (CLE) | Over 1.5 hits | -104, favorite play of the day |
DeLauter is the through-line Lindy kept coming back to on this show: a real platoon-split outlier that the whole projection community agreed on, the kind of repeatable edge he wants a card built on rather than depending on home run props to scrape back to break-even. He said as much before ever getting to Murakami's combo: home runs should be "the nuclear bombs," not the whole plan.
Also Grinding The Board: Tonight's +EV Hits Unders
Lindy's card leans on strikeouts and hits overs, but OddsShopper's own +EV screen flagged the flip side across two of tonight's games: hitters priced short to go hitless who still carry real value on the under. Every number below is live off the board:
| Batter | Market | Best price | Fair implied odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | 37.6% |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +205 (Bet365) | 34.4% |
| Gleyber Torres (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | 36.6% |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | 37.9% |
| Javier Báez (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Bet365) | 42.2% |
| Hao-Yu Lee (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | 41.0% |
| Jackson Holliday (BAL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | 41.0% |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 (Bet365) | 40.6% |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 (Bet365) | 40.0% |
| Alan Roden (MIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +132 (Bet365) | 46.5% |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Fanatics) | 41.5% |
| Dylan Beavers (BAL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +135 (Bet365) | 44.0% |
Kody Clemens carries the widest gap on that board: a +190 price against a fair number closer to 37.6%, roughly the same shape as the strikeout-heavy read Lindy has on the Twins-Orioles game above. That's the exact process behind every play on this page: shop the number, de-vig it to a fair price, and only bet the gap that's actually there. Our +EV betting guide walks through how that math works if you want to build boards like this one yourself, and FanDuel's current offer — how to claim it is worth checking before you shop tonight's card.
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FAQ
Who Is Lindy And Where Can I Follow His MLB Picks?
Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper channel and posts his full daily card on Tails.
What Was Lindy's Favorite Play On The Wednesday, August 12 Card?
His favorite was Chase DeLauter (CLE) over 1.5 hits at -104 against Detroit's Framber Valdez, a spot where nearly every projection source he checked lined up on the same side.
Why Does Lindy Like Munetaka Murakami To Homer Against Rhett Lowder?
Lowder's fly-ball-heavy mix has allowed home run numbers against lefties that Lindy sees as due for regression, in a hitter-friendly, high-humidity park, the setup he built the same-night double-homer combo around.
Does A Lean Count The Same As An Official Play?
No. Lindy talks through spots he's watching but hasn't bet, like Wednesday's Tampa Bay run line and Cole Young leadoff prop, separately from the plays he's actually on. We only count the seven he officially fired in this recap.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Wednesday, August 12 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
