Lindy's MLB picks for Monday, August 17 come down to five official plays on an 11-game card that opens with a doubleheader carrying almost no usable lines. Eric Lindquist rides into the week up over 25 units on the year after a profitable weekend filling in on Live with Lindy, capped by watching Joshua Báez (STL) go deep three times in his debut at Wrigley. He's not chasing that number again tonight; he flagged Báez's homer price as too rich and passed. Instead, Monday's card is built on precise mismatches: a Rays pitcher on a hard innings cap he'd bet even bigger on if the opponent weren't the Orioles, a contact hitter who just walked into a great lineup spot in Philadelphia, and a handful of smaller plays he trusts enough to size up. The full breakdown of all five plays, and the six leans he talked through but didn't fire, is below.
Luis Arraez — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Monday, August 17 card has five official plays: a Shane McClanahan (TB) outs under he calls the most interesting number on the board, a Luis Arraez (PHI) RBI prop, a Walker Buehler (SD) hits-allowed under, a Braves-Twins game total over, and a Carter Jensen (KC) home run. He's also sitting on six leans he didn't turn into bets, including a Dodgers run line and a Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) home run he's watching closely. The full card, and why those six stay leans, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through an 11-game Monday slate that opens with a Cardinals-Reds doubleheader carrying almost no posted lines. Watch him work through the full board, from the McClanahan pitch-count math to the late-card home run lean. If you'd rather shop these numbers yourself while you watch, OddsShopper Pro is free to try for 7 days.
The Plays At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The size |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan (TB) | Under 12.5 outs vs Orioles | Half unit |
| Luis Arraez (PHI) | To record an RBI vs Marlins | 0.3 units |
| Walker Buehler (SD) | Under 4.5 hits allowed vs Mets | 0.3 units |
| Braves-Twins Total | Over 9 | 0.52 units to win a half unit |
| Carter Jensen (KC) | To hit a home run vs Athletics | Standard play |
Five plays is a lighter card than usual for Lindy, and that's by design on a Monday where the day's first two games barely have lines to bet.
The Most Interesting Number On The Board: A Pitch-Count Under He'd Bet Bigger On A Different Team
Shane McClanahan (TB) is the anchor of Monday's card, and Lindy called this his most interesting prop on the entire board. McClanahan is working back from injury and threw just 30 pitches in his last Triple-A tune-up at Durham, so Lindy has him capped around 46 pitches and projects three innings as the most likely outcome, four at the outside if he's especially efficient. His outs prop opened at even money on DraftKings, and Lindy said it opened even better than that at NoVig and Prophetx, which he reads as sharp money either arbing the number or pushing both sides across books. That's the trap: even money implies a coin flip, and Lindy doesn't think this is close to one given the pitch-count math. He said if this were any team other than the Orioles, he'd be firing a full unit and a half; Baltimore's unpredictability is the only thing keeping him from going bigger. Shane McClanahan (TB) under 12.5 outs vs the Orioles, a half unit.
A Contact Hitter Walking Into A Great Lineup Spot In Philadelphia
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) faces Janson Junk (MIA) and the Marlins on Monday, and Lindy's play in that game isn't a strikeout prop, it's an RBI prop on Luis Arraez (PHI). Arraez is hitting behind Bryce Harper (PHI) and Kyle Schwarber (PHI), two hitters Lindy called elite by expected weighted on-base average, and he pointed out that Citizens Bank Park should play up for power for Arraez's contact-first approach without him needing to sell out for it. Against Junk specifically, Lindy likes that Arraez rarely strikes out, which keeps the bases in front of him occupied longer for a batter who puts the ball in play as often as anyone in baseball. He priced this well ahead of the market: Bet365 opened it at plus 140, a softer number, with a plus 170 line available elsewhere. Luis Arraez (PHI) to record an RBI vs the Marlins at plus 170, a 0.3 unit play.
The Padres Under: One Of The Best Tracked Arms On The Show
Walker Buehler (SD) draws the Mets on the road, and Lindy has one of the best track records on this show betting Buehler, just one loss across his last six tickets on him this season. He likes the under on Buehler's hits-allowed number specifically because New York's lineup skews heavily left-handed with Francisco Lindor (NYM) and others, and Buehler has reverse splits that make him particularly tough on left-handed power. Buehler was stretched to 98 pitches on four days' rest last time out and now gets a full five days' rest, which Lindy thinks could mean a more limited workload rather than a deeper one. Walker Buehler (SD) under 4.5 hits allowed vs the Mets at minus 105, a 0.3 unit play.
The Home Run Play: A Kauffman Prospect Against An Extreme Fly-Ball Arm
Carter Jensen (KC) is Lindy's home run play of the night, and it's built on a park read as much as a hitter read. Kansas City brought its fences in this season, and Lindy said he's bet home runs at Kauffman Field far more often since, especially with the humidity and warmer temperatures rolling in for the back half of summer. Monday sits right in that above-average window at 82 degrees and 65% humidity at first pitch. Jensen gets the platoon advantage batting near the top of the order against Mason Barnett (OAK), an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and Lindy pointed to Jensen's pull rate sitting north of 20% across his two years of sample size as the swing profile that makes this matchup work. He's nowhere close to the plus 475 price on the board and called it one of the best home run plays for expected value he's seen all week. Carter Jensen (KC) to hit a home run vs the Athletics at plus 475.
Six Leans He Didn't Fire
Lindy talked through six more spots without pulling the trigger, and the LEAN ≠ PLAY line matters here: these stay leans, not bets. He likes Brandon Young (BAL) over 1.5 walks allowed on PrizePicks against a Rays lineup working around Shane McClanahan's own volatile pitch count, pricing it closer to minus 160 than the market's opener, but he didn't size it into a play. He's watching the Detroit Tigers (DET) moneyline against a lefty-vulnerable Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) lineup that's struggled since the trade deadline, saying he'd likely bet it if the number reaches minus 110. In Boston, he leaned the Diamondbacks-Red Sox total under 9, pointing to Brayan Bello (BOS) far better numbers working out of a bulk-relief role than as a traditional starter, but called it "just a lean, just a lean." He's close to pulling the trigger on Nolan McLean (NYM) over 5.5 strikeouts against a Padres lineup that's struck out at a sub-20% rate against right-handers since the deadline, but hadn't fired as of the show. He talked through the Dodgers (LAD) run line -2.5 against Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) and the Rockies, pointing to a stripped-down Colorado bullpen and the sport's best hitter's park, but stopped short of stating a size on it. And at Wrigley, he's leaning toward Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to hit a home run against Luis Castillo (CWS) and the White Sox, pointing to a .214 expected isolated power number against lefties and a sub-20% strikeout rate that keeps him running hot; he flagged a Kalshi price around plus 373, fee-adjusted, as the number he's watching.
Worked Example: Reading A De-Vigged Price For The Real Edge
Elsewhere on Monday's board, the same math Lindy runs on every play above shows up in black and white on our live tool, and it lines up with a game already on his card. Walker Buehler's total strikeouts prop, separate from the hits-allowed under above, is priced at plus 127 at DraftKings 🎁, but once every book on the market is stripped of its hold, the de-vigged fair price comes out to plus 123. That gap, plus 123 fair against plus 127 actually available, works out to a real 1.8% edge sitting out in the open on a single book most bettors won't think to check against the rest of the market. It's the same exercise behind Lindy's Arraez and McClanahan reads above: find what the real number should be, then only play when the gap between that number and the posted price is wide enough to matter. Our guide to finding +EV bets walks through the full de-vig math if you want to run this process yourself before first pitch.
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OddsShopper takes the number-hunting off your plate on a night like this one, when 11 games are on the board, two of them without full lines yet, and the real edges are scattered across different books. It checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the spots where the price is better than the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind the plays above. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig in plain language, and our MLB strikeout props breakdown covers the pitching side of tonight's board in more depth, alongside our MLB hits props roundup.
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