Lindy's MLB picks for Tuesday, August 18 came down to six official plays on a 15-game card, and the thread running through all of them is the same one he leans on every night: find the number that's simply better than the real odds, whichever market it's hiding in. That's a Jo Adell (CLE) home run price he called "a crazy number to be getting," a Jordan Lawlar (ARI) home run play born out of a lineup shake-up, a Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) outs number to open the card, two game totals to close it out, and the play he called the one he's most invested in tonight: a Kyle Harrison (MIL) strikeout prop. Eric Lindquist opened the show one card removed from a near-sweep: two of three home run picks hit on his Kalshi expert-picks page Monday, and a heavy Shane McClanahan (TB) under and a Walker Buehler (SD) hits-allowed under both cashed, but a Braves-Twins total fell just short when Minnesota stranded the bases loaded in the eighth instead of pushing across the runs that would have completed the sweep.
Jo Adell — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Tuesday, August 18 has six official plays: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) over 5.5 pitching outs to open the card, Jo Adell (CLE) to homer at a number he called crazy, Jordan Lawlar (ARI) to homer at plus money as he steps into an everyday role, Kyle Harrison (MIL) over his strikeout number (the play he's most invested in tonight), the Braves-Twins total over 8.5, and the Dodgers-Rockies total over 11.5 to finish the card. The full breakdown of all six plays, plus the home run and strikeout number he looked at hard and still passed on, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel. Watch him work through every matchup, game by game.
The Plays At A Glance
- Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) over his pitching-outs number, close to a coin flip across books, a small slice to open the card, vs the Detroit Tigers
- Jo Adell (CLE) to hit a home run, at a plus-money price Lindy called crazy and tracked well ahead of the recreational-book number, vs San Francisco's Carson Whisenhunt
- Jordan Lawlar (ARI) to hit a home run, at a plus-money price on DraftKings, vs Boston's Ranger Suarez
- Kyle Harrison (MIL) over his strikeout number, priced with a bit more juice than usual, the play Lindy called the one he's most invested in tonight, vs the Seattle Mariners
- Braves-Twins Total over 8.5, a standard number
- Dodgers-Rockies Total over 11.5, sized at three-tenths of a unit
He also talked through several spots he passed on: a Pete Alonso (BAL) home run number he likes but hasn't deployed, a Carlos Rodón (NYY) outs under he's still just watching, a Cristian Javier (HOU) strikeout number he called himself out for not clicking, and moneyline leans on the Padres and the Royals he hasn't fired yet. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Monday's Near-Sweep Sets Up Tuesday's Card
Lindy opened Tuesday's show still riding the good feeling from Monday: two of three home run picks hit on his Kalshi expert-picks page, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) both going deep, while a third leg on Carter Jensen (KC) came up just short, a double off the wall instead of the ball leaving the yard. On the prop side, a heavy Shane McClanahan (TB) under cashed big, and Walker Buehler (SD) going six innings while staying under his hits-allowed number worked out cleanly in a game where San Diego's lineup couldn't put much else on the board. The one that got away was a Braves-Twins total: Atlanta loaded the bases in the eighth against a shaky Minnesota bullpen and still didn't push a run across, stranding 19 runners on the day, well above what Lindy called the league-average range. That near-miss is the connective tissue into Tuesday: he's not chasing the total that got away, he's back hunting the next mispriced number, wherever it shows up.
Braxton Ashcraft Opens The Card
The first official play of the night is a small one: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) over his pitching-outs number against the Detroit Tigers, priced close to a coin flip across books. Lindy sliced off only a small piece of his card here, calling it a bit of a redemption spot on the night rather than a number he wants to lean on heavily. Detroit's lineup has been pesky since the trade deadline, running a sub-20% strikeout rate as a team, which is exactly why this stays a small slice rather than a bigger swing: Lindy likes Ashcraft's stuff, he just doesn't want to get run over by a Tigers team that keeps refusing to fold against good arms.
Jo Adell's Home Run Number Is The Best Price On The Board
The headline play of the night is a home run number Lindy called "a crazy number to be getting": Jo Adell (CLE), a right-handed hitter, to go deep against San Francisco's left-handed Carson Whisenhunt, who Lindy says gives up copious amounts of power in a Progressive Field spot he already dislikes for right-handed power in general. Adell's case is the platoon edge: his expected isolated power against left-handed pitching this season sits around .299, with 11 homers against lefties already banked, and a swing shape that clears an 18-degree launch angle, right in the band Whisenhunt's pitch mix is most vulnerable to (a 16-degree-plus average launch angle allowed across all four of his pitches). Weather is close to neutral, warm and humid with the wind only slightly unfavorable, which is part of why Lindy called the number itself the real edge rather than the conditions. He tracked the price at a plus-money number well ahead of where the recreational books had it, calling out the exact size of the gap live on the show. Jo Adell (CLE) to hit a home run, at the best plus-money number he could find.
Worked Example: What "Shopping The Number" Actually Buys You
Lindy's whole case for Adell wasn't the matchup alone, it was that the price he found beat the field by a real, countable margin, the same idea behind every line on OddsShopper's own board. Take Ben Rice (NYY) from the +EV table below: the fair, de-vigged price on him going hitless tonight works out to +188, but Fanatics is offering +200 on the exact same outcome. That 12-cent gap is real money left on the table by anyone who bets the first number they see instead of shopping it, and it's the identical mechanic Lindy used to land his Adell price: find the same bet priced differently across books, and take the number that pays more for the same risk. Our MLB home run props board tracks these same kinds of gaps across the rest of tonight's slate.
Jordan Lawlar Steps Into An Everyday Role
Jordan Lawlar (ARI) getting the home run play tonight is a direct result of a lineup scramble Lindy caught live on a Tuesday broadcast: Ketel Marte was a late scratch from the Arizona lineup, reportedly dealing with a personal matter, which pushes Lawlar into an everyday role batting fifth against Boston's Ranger Suarez. Lindy has liked Lawlar's pedigree for a while now, calling him a much better prospect than his limited big-league track record suggests, and Suarez has seen his stuff dip over his last three outings with the strikeouts disappearing, even as the Red Sox have tried to manage his workload carefully. Lawlar getting a full-time look against a struggling lefty, not a short-porch ballpark angle, is the actual case here. Jordan Lawlar (ARI) to hit a home run, at a plus-money price on DraftKings.
Kyle Harrison Is The Play Lindy's Most Invested In
Kyle Harrison (MIL) draws the strikeout play Lindy called, flat out, the one he's most invested in on tonight's card. Harrison got bludgeoned in his last outing, eight earned runs allowed and only three strikeouts, but Lindy is pricing that start as an outlier rather than the new normal, trusting his stuff to hold up in a home start even against a Milwaukee lineup he called a "buzzsaw." The number carries a bit more juice than Lindy typically likes to pay, but he called it a fair cost for a standard strikeout prop against a Seattle team that has climbed to a 24% strikeout rate as a group since the trade deadline. Kyle Harrison (MIL) over his strikeout number, juice-heavy but standard.
Two Totals Close Out The Card
The last two plays are both game totals rather than player props. The Braves-Twins total over 8.5 comes with both starters carrying ERAs north of 5.00 and a Minnesota lineup that still carries real right-handed thump if Byron Buxton gets going again, priced at a standard number. The Dodgers-Rockies total over 11.5 closes the card, with Lindy sizing it at three-tenths of a unit against Eric Lauer (LAD) and Ryan Feltner (COL), a matchup he flagged as "screaming runs": Feltner has allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .290 expected isolated power to righties with almost no strikeout pedigree to fall back on, and Lauer has been giving up more left-handed power than he'd like on the other side of it, an odd wrinkle given the lefty thump (Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani) still sitting in his own lineup. Braves-Twins total over 8.5, and Dodgers-Rockies total over 11.5, three-tenths of a unit.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) | Over his pitching-outs number | Close to a coin flip |
| Jo Adell (CLE) | To hit a home run | Plus-money, best number tracked |
| Jordan Lawlar (ARI) | To hit a home run | Plus-money (DraftKings) |
| Kyle Harrison (MIL) | Over his strikeout number | Juice-heavy but standard, most invested play of the night |
| Braves-Twins | Total over 8.5 | Standard number |
| Dodgers-Rockies | Total over 11.5 | Standard number, three-tenths of a unit |
The Adell and Lawlar home run plays are the through-line Lindy kept circling back to tonight: two lineup situations where the number available was simply out of step with what he sees underneath it, whether that's a pitcher who leaks right-handed power or a prospect stepping into everyday at-bats. Harrison's strikeout number is the one he called his biggest investment, but it's the two home run plays he framed as the widest gap between what the market is offering and what he actually has them at.
What Lindy Passed On
Not every spot Lindy dug into made the card. He has a lean on Pete Alonso (BAL) to homer against Carlos Rodón (NYY) at a plus-money number he pegged as just outside his own fair price, technically positive value but still not enough to deploy with warm, humid Camden Yards weather still a variable he's watching rather than trusting. He's similarly parked on Carlos Rodón (NYY) going under his pitching-outs number in that same game, coming off his first outing back from the injured list. He talked himself right up to the edge of a Cristian Javier (HOU) strikeout play against the Los Angeles Angels, a fully stretched-out Javier against a lineup that includes Mike Trout and Zach Neto, and still didn't click it. And he's sitting on moneyline leans on the San Diego Padres (against the Mets' Zac Thornton) and the Kansas City Royals (against the Athletics), both numbers he likes without having fired yet. None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Tonight's +EV Hits And Strikeout Unders
Lindy's card leans on home runs and strikeout overs, but OddsShopper's own +EV screen flagged the flip side across several of tonight's same games: batters priced short to go hitless, and one pitcher priced short to stay under his strikeout number, that still carry real value on the under. Every number below is live off the board as of tonight.
| Player | Market | Best price | Fair implied odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +138 fair |
| Jake Mangum (PIT) | Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +165 fair |
| Zach McKinstry (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Fanatics) | +138 fair |
| Cristian Javier (HOU) | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | +105 (DraftKings) | -105 fair |
| Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +129 fair |
| Nick Martinez (TB) | Under 17.5 Pitching Outs | +155 (Bet365) | +144 fair |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | Under 0.5 Hits | +200 (Fanatics) | +188 fair |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +184 fair |
| Luis Rengifo (SD) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Fanatics) | +172 fair |
| Jacob Gonzalez (PIT) | Under 0.5 Hits | +110 (Bet365) | +104 fair |
| Kevin McGonigle (DET) | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +183 fair |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | +174 fair |
That board clusters hard around three of the exact games Lindy already had open tonight. The Tigers-Pirates game Ashcraft is opening the card in carries five names on that list alone (Mangum, McKinstry, Gonzalez, Lowe, and McGonigle), the Yankees-Orioles game with his Alonso lean adds Encarnacion-Strand and Rice, and the Cristian Javier strikeout number he talked himself out of clicking shows up here too, at a price the screen says is worth a second look even though Lindy passed live. That's the same process behind every play on this page, just running on the other side of the board: shop the number, de-vig it to a fair price, and only bet the gap that's actually there. Our +EV betting guide walks through that math if you want to build boards like this one yourself, and DraftKings' current offer — how to claim it is worth checking before you shop tonight's card, since it's the book carrying both of Lindy's home run prices.
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