Sixteen MLB games are on the board for Wednesday, September 23, and Eric Lindquist is treating it like the calendar demands: light on volume, heavier on conviction. "Not a lot of volume, quite a few plays," he said early in the show, and with the playoffs bearing down and lines already moving overnight, he picked his spots across the full board rather than forcing something in every window. He came into the day up slightly after a Tuesday that leaned on a PrizePicks card headlined by Mickey Moniac's home run at plus-475, and he's carrying that same selectivity into Wednesday: seven official plays, a handful of leans he never turned into bets, and a lot of games he talked through and walked away from entirely.
Mike Trout — Lindy's one MLB home run swing on today's board.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Wednesday, September 23 card has seven official plays: Mike Trout (LAA) to hit a home run against left-hander Jeffrey Springs at plus-350, Toronto's moneyline in the bullpen-game second half of their Baltimore doubleheader at minus-108, Philadelphia's moneyline against Milwaukee at plus-124, the under 7.5 total for Cardinals-Pirates at even money, the over 8.5 total for White Sox-Royals at minus-107, Foster Griffin (CLE) for 5-plus strikeouts against a watered-down Red Sox lineup, and the Dodgers' moneyline against San Francisco in a "coin-flippy" spot with Yamamoto on the mound. Beyond that card, he talked through moneyline leans on Houston and the Yankees that never became bets, and passed on several other games entirely. The full breakdown is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through all 16 MLB games before settling on the seven plays below. If you'd rather shop these numbers yourself while you watch, OddsShopper Pro is free to try for 7 days.
The Plays At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The size |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (LAA) | To hit a home run vs. Jeffrey Springs | His one home run swing of the day |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline, Game 2 of the Baltimore doubleheader | Not specified |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Moneyline vs. Milwaukee (+124) | A half unit |
| Cardinals-Pirates | Under 7.5 (even money) | Not specified |
| White Sox-Royals | Over 8.5 (-107) | 0.3 units |
| Foster Griffin (CLE) | 5+ strikeouts vs. Boston | A quarter unit |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Moneyline vs. San Francisco | A quarter unit |
Seven plays spread across seven different games, and a common thread runs through them: none of them lean on chasing a hot lineup. They're built on pitching matchups, park and weather notes, and one hitter the market has priced wrong.
His Home Run Play: Mike Trout Against A Lefty Who Can't Miss Bats
Lindy called this "an interesting one" the moment he got to it, and he was upfront that his own history with Mike Trout hasn't been profitable. But the numbers here pulled him in anyway. Trout is running a .221 expected ISO against left-handed pitching this year against just a .157 realized mark, a gap Lindy pointed to directly as evidence he's been unlucky rather than declining. Trout also strikes out at a sub-20% clip against left-handers, which matters against Jeffrey Springs, a southpaw Lindy said has "given up crazy boatloads of power to lefties and righties alike" this season. The Angels don't have much protection behind Trout from the left side of the plate, either. Lindy singled out Zach Neto as the only other left-handed bat he trusts in that lineup, and even called his price short. Mike Trout (LAA) to hit a home run against Jeffrey Springs, priced at plus-350 when Lindy made the call and sitting at plus-326 as of this recording, his only home run swing on a board that was mostly barren for the long ball.
Toronto Moneyline: The Bullpen Game Angle
The Blue Jays and Orioles are playing a doubleheader to make up a Tuesday rainout, and Lindy split his read on the two games. In the opener, he weighed Max Scherzer against Chris Bassett and talked himself out of the Toronto side, calling it "much closer" than the market had it and passing entirely. The second game is where he landed: Toronto is running a true bullpen game behind reliever CJ Van, while Baltimore hands the ball to Trey Gibson with the clear goal of eating innings before the season ends. Both teams are out of contention and playing out the string, but Lindy still liked Toronto's moneyline in Game 2 at minus-108, noting it was surprising to see the price sit that close given the bullpen-game context.
Phillies Moneyline: Nola At Home, A Good Park For Lefty Power
Milwaukee sends Logan Henderson, a strikeout-heavy arm, into Philadelphia while the Brewers are trying to hold off the Dodgers for the top seed in the National League. Lindy's read is that Citizens Bank Park is exactly the wrong park for that matchup to play out cleanly, given how well it treats left-handed power, and he noted Aaron Nola has pitched much better at home over the past month with pronounced home-road splits in his favor. Philadelphia's moneyline at plus-124, sized at a half unit, smaller than his usual game-line play, but not one he skipped.
Cardinals-Pirates: Betting The Weather, Not The Names
This one came down to conditions more than personnel. Wind blowing in at 12-13 mph at PNC Park is, in Lindy's words, "very advantageous pitching weather," and he wasn't even certain who'd be on the mound behind the Pirates' starter given how unsettled that staff has looked. Matthew Liberatore gets the ball for St. Louis, and Lindy flagged that Liberatore's pitch counts in his last three outings (72, 69, 81) suggest he could be in line for regression at some point. Just not, in his view, on a cold, wind-in night at a pitcher's park. Under 7.5 at even money, his second play built around ballpark conditions on this card.
White Sox-Royals: A Total Built On A Shaky Chicago Arm
Lindy was blunt about this one, flatly calling White Sox right-hander Eric Fedde horrible, and he's not buying into him regardless of the platoon matchup. Seth Lugo gets the ball for a Kansas City club Lindy still expects to run out a competitive lineup. With both bullpens likely to see plenty of work behind shaky starting pitching, he landed on the total. Over 8.5 at minus-107, sized at 0.3 units, one of his smaller plays on the card, but one he called "an all right spot to dip your toes into."
Foster Griffin Strikeouts: A Lineup With Nothing Left To Play For
Cleveland still has real playoff stakes; Boston's season, in Lindy's words, is "completely done," with the Red Sox locked into their wild-card spot with nothing left to jockey for. That combination is why he's not expecting Boston's best everyday lineup on the field, and it's the setup behind his smallest play of the day. Foster Griffin (CLE) for 5-plus strikeouts, sized at just a quarter unit. Griffin's 14.5 outs-recorded prop got a look too; Lindy leaned the over but called the hold on that number too heavy to bet, so it stayed off the card.
Dodgers Moneyline: A Coin Flip With Ohtani Coming Back
Yoshinobu Yamamoto got bumped up to start Wednesday for Los Angeles after the Dodgers ran a bullpen game against San Francisco and Robbie Ray, and Lindy's read leans on two things: Los Angeles needs innings out of Yamamoto with no days off left in the schedule, and Shohei Ohtani is expected back atop the lineup after his bicep issue. The Dodgers are chasing Milwaukee for the top seed in the National League, which means a full night of scoreboard-watching alongside their own game. The price is "closer to coin-flippy," in Lindy's words, and he stopped short of a big stand, but he still landed on it. Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline against San Francisco, sized at a quarter unit.
Leans He Didn't Fire
Two more spots got real analysis without becoming plays, and the LEAN ≠ PLAY line matters here. Lindy called Houston's moneyline against Seattle "probably the closest play I've got here on a lean section" given George Kirby's fading strikeout stuff and Houston's clear edge in stakes, but he stopped short of actually betting it. The Yankees' moneyline against Tampa Bay at minus-157 got a similar treatment: Lindy reasoned that a watered-down Rays lineup the day after clinching the AL East justifies the price even with the extra juice, but he flagged the number as more than he'd normally pay, so it stays a lean rather than a confirmed play. A thinner look at Minnesota's moneyline against a struggling Giants lineup also never got a price attached or a firm commitment.
Games He Passed On Entirely
Several more games got attention and no play. A pitcher's matchup drawing a righty-heavy Washington lineup fronted by CJ Abrams got a look, but Lindy said he didn't need to force a bet on that game. The Reds-Braves game drew a lean toward the under on Chris Sale's inflated strikeout total, but Lindy said the whole game was "very tough to bet" and left it alone. Arizona's game in Colorado got a long look given the Diamondbacks' playoff push, but nothing concrete came of it. A Nico Hoerner-centered look at the Marlins-Cubs game also stayed analysis only, and Lindy said he might add a Nolan McLean strikeout prop for the Mets-Rangers game later once he finished running his numbers overnight; it wasn't locked in at the time of recording.
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Lindy's card today is a reminder that a full board doesn't mean a full bet card: seven plays out of 16 games, each built on a specific pitching, park, or matchup edge rather than a hot lineup. OddsShopper checks every book at once and de-vigs the market to a fair price, the same math behind gaps like the one between Trout's plus-350 call and where the market has since settled.
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You can also shop the live board yourself at the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, check FanDuel's current offer — how to claim it, or use our free bet converter if a sportsbook credits you a bonus bet off Wednesday's action. For more home run swings across the rest of the board, see our MLB home run picks hub, and our guide to finding +EV bets walks through the de-vig math behind Lindy's Trout read.
FAQ
Who Is Lindy And Where Can I Follow His MLB Picks?
Lindy is Eric Lindquist, who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper channel and posts his full daily card on Tails.
What Was Lindy's Biggest Play On The Wednesday, September 23 Card?
His headline play was Mike Trout (LAA) to hit a home run against left-hander Jeffrey Springs at plus-350. He backed it with six more official plays: Toronto's moneyline in Game 2 of their Baltimore doubleheader, Philadelphia's moneyline against Milwaukee, the under on Cardinals-Pirates, the over on White Sox-Royals, a Foster Griffin strikeout prop, and the Dodgers' moneyline against San Francisco.
Does A Lean Count The Same As An Official Play?
No. Lindy talks through spots he's watching but hasn't bet, like Wednesday's Houston and Yankees moneyline leans, separately from the plays he's actually on. This recap only credits him with the seven he officially fired.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the Wednesday, September 23 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card on Tails. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
