MLB Weather Report Today (September 11, 2026): Wind, Parks and HR Conditions
Weather is the one input that reprices a baseball slate every single day, and tonight's board has 12 outdoor games with 3 of them getting a real home run tailwind. The spot to know first: SD @ SF at Oracle Park — 58°F, wind 16 mph from the WNW, and the model's wind factor sits at 1.53, the strongest HR boost on the slate.
In Summary: Tonight's Weather Board
- Wind helping homers: SD @ SF, SEA @ ATH, LAD @ MIA.
- Weather working against the over: CLE @ MIN, COL @ DET, CIN @ MIL.
- Roof games (weather neutral): HOU @ TB.
- Factor reads: above 1.10 = conditions add home run juice; below 0.90 = they take it away; 1.00 = the park playing its normal self.
Every Game, Every Park: The Full Weather Table
| Game | First Pitch | Park | Temp | Wind | LHB Factor | RHB Factor | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD @ SF | 10:15 PM ET | Oracle Park | 58°F | 16 mph WNW | 1.53 | 1.44 | Big HR boost |
| SEA @ ATH | 9:40 PM ET | Sutter Health Park | 69°F | 8 mph SSE | 1.06 | 1.22 | Boosts both sides, bigger for RHB |
| LAD @ MIA | 7:10 PM ET | loanDepot park | 78°F | 7 mph W | 1.16 | — | HR boost |
| NYM @ NYY | 7:05 PM ET | Yankee Stadium | 73°F | 5 mph NNW | 1.07 | 0.95 | Near neutral |
| KC @ BOS | 7:10 PM ET | Fenway Park | 68°F | 5 mph NW | 1.05 | 0.96 | Near neutral |
| CWS @ STL | 8:15 PM ET | Busch Stadium | 74°F | 2 mph SE | 0.96 | 1.01 | Near neutral |
| HOU @ TB | 7:10 PM ET | Tropicana Field | — | Roof | — | — | Roof — weather off the board |
| BAL @ TOR | 7:07 PM ET | Rogers Centre | 62°F | 4 mph ENE | 0.92 | 0.99 | Near neutral |
| CLE @ MIN | 8:10 PM ET | Target Field | 73°F | 13 mph S | 0.67 | 0.88 | Helps RHB power, works against LHB |
| COL @ DET | 6:40 PM ET | Comerica Park | 74°F | 6 mph E | — | 0.88 | HR suppressor |
| CIN @ MIL | 7:45 PM ET | American Family Field | 67°F | 5 mph SE | — | 0.86 | HR suppressor |
| PIT @ CHC | 2:20 PM ET | Wrigley Field | 76°F | 9 mph E | 0.76 | — | HR suppressor |
| PHI @ ATL | 7:15 PM ET | Truist Park | 78°F | 9 mph SSW | 0.73 | — | HR suppressor |
How to read the factors: the model's park-aware wind multiplier on home run probability, split by batter handedness — it weights where each side's power actually goes against what the wind is doing to each part of that park tonight. That's why the same wind can read 0.96 for lefties and 1.19 for righties in the same game: the wind helps one field and fights the other. The number does the interpreting; when the two columns disagree, THAT disagreement is the story.
Where the Weather Helps the Ball Fly
SD @ SF, Oracle Park (10:15 PM ET) — 58°F with a 16 mph WNW wind: wind factor 1.53 both ways, on a park already indexing 71.4 for homers.
SEA @ ATH, Sutter Health Park (9:40 PM ET) — 69°F with a 8 mph SSE wind: wind factor 1.06 for lefties against 1.22 for righties — the wind is picking a side tonight, on a park already indexing 127.2 for homers.
LAD @ MIA, loanDepot park (7:10 PM ET) — 78°F with a 7 mph W wind: wind factor 1.16 both ways, on a park already indexing 90.9 for homers.
Where the Weather Fights the Over
CLE @ MIN, Target Field (8:10 PM ET) — wind factor 0.88 means conditions are taking carry off the ball tonight. Totals and HR props in this park deserve a longer look before backing the over.
COL @ DET, Comerica Park (6:40 PM ET) — wind factor 0.88 means conditions are taking carry off the ball tonight. Totals and HR props in this park deserve a longer look before backing the over.
How Bettors Use This Page
Weather moves two markets: game totals and home run props. Books adjust for the obvious spots, so the edge is not "wind out, bet the over" — it is knowing which parks the weather ACTUALLY moves (the factor) and then shopping the number. The live MLB odds screen shows every book's total side by side, and the HR Cheat Sheet carries tonight's model-favorite bats with live prices. Weather is context, not a pick — prices are probabilities, and this page tells you where the conditions lean before you shop.
FAQ
Does wind really change home run totals? At some parks, dramatically — the factor above is a park-aware multiplier, and tonight's slate spans 0.73 to 1.53. The same wind speed can boost one park and do nothing at another because fence distances and orientation differ.
When is this page updated? The board refreshes throughout the day as the model reruns; numbers reflect the latest run before first pitch.
Do roof games have a weather edge? No — indoor and closed-roof games play weather-neutral, which is exactly why they are listed separately above.
Bottom Line
3 parks with a real HR tailwind tonight, 5 fighting it, and the rest near neutral. Check the factor, cross it with the Cheat Sheet's featured bats, and shop the price. Model estimates, not betting advice — lines move, weather changes, and the number you get matters more than the forecast.
