MLB Weather Report Today (July 27, 2026): Wind, Parks and HR Conditions
Weather is the one input that reprices a baseball slate every single day, and tonight's board has 11 outdoor games with 7 of them getting a real home run tailwind. The spot to know first: ATL @ NYM at Citi Field — 76°F, wind 8 mph from the S, and the model's wind factor sits at 1.25, the strongest HR boost on the slate.
In Summary: Tonight's Weather Board
- Wind helping homers: ATL @ NYM, BOS @ ATH, MIL @ SF, CHC @ STL.
- Weather working against the over: NYY @ CWS.
- Factor reads: above 1.10 = conditions add home run juice; below 0.90 = they take it away; 1.00 = the park playing its normal self.
Every Game, Every Park: The Full Weather Table
| Game | First Pitch | Park | Temp | Wind | LHB Factor | RHB Factor | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NYM | 7:10 PM ET | Citi Field | 76°F | 8 mph S | 1.24 | 1.25 | Big HR boost |
| BOS @ ATH | 9:40 PM ET | Sutter Health Park | 72°F | 6 mph SSW | 1.17 | 1.21 | HR boost |
| MIL @ SF | 9:45 PM ET | Oracle Park | 58°F | 6 mph W | 1.2 | — | HR boost |
| CHC @ STL | 7:45 PM ET | Busch Stadium | 94°F | 6 mph SW | 1.16 | 1.19 | HR boost |
| HOU @ LAA | 9:38 PM ET | Angel Stadium | 71°F | 5 mph S | 1.12 | 1.17 | HR boost |
| AZ @ PIT | 6:40 PM ET | PNC Park | 86°F | 9 mph SW | 0.97 | 1.17 | Helps RHB power, works against LHB |
| BAL @ DET | 6:40 PM ET | Comerica Park | 84°F | 10 mph WSW | 0.94 | 1.11 | Helps RHB power, works against LHB |
| CLE @ CIN | 7:10 PM ET | Great American Ball Park | 87°F | 2 mph ENE | 0.97 | 0.94 | Near neutral |
| PHI @ MIA | 6:40 PM ET | loanDepot park | 88°F | 8 mph SW | 0.94 | — | Near neutral |
| TOR @ WSH | 6:45 PM ET | Nationals Park | 88°F | 2 mph NE | 0.94 | 0.94 | Near neutral |
| NYY @ CWS | 7:40 PM ET | Rate Field | 73°F | 9 mph SSE | 0.72 | — | HR suppressor |
How to read the factors: the model's park-aware wind multiplier on home run probability, split by batter handedness — it weights where each side's power actually goes against what the wind is doing to each part of that park tonight. That's why the same wind can read 0.96 for lefties and 1.19 for righties in the same game: the wind helps one field and fights the other. The number does the interpreting; when the two columns disagree, THAT disagreement is the story.
Where the Weather Helps the Ball Fly
ATL @ NYM, Citi Field (7:10 PM ET) — 76°F with a 8 mph S wind: wind factor 1.25 both ways, on a park already indexing 102.3 for homers.
BOS @ ATH, Sutter Health Park (9:40 PM ET) — 72°F with a 6 mph SSW wind: wind factor 1.21 both ways, on a park already indexing 119.5 for homers.
MIL @ SF, Oracle Park (9:45 PM ET) — 58°F with a 6 mph W wind: wind factor 1.2 both ways, on a park already indexing 69.3 for homers.
Where the Weather Fights the Over
NYY @ CWS, Rate Field (7:40 PM ET) — wind factor 0.72 means conditions are taking carry off the ball tonight. Totals and HR props in this park deserve a longer look before backing the over.
How Bettors Use This Page
Weather moves two markets: game totals and home run props. Books adjust for the obvious spots, so the edge is not "wind out, bet the over" — it is knowing which parks the weather ACTUALLY moves (the factor) and then shopping the number. The live MLB odds screen shows every book's total side by side, and the HR Cheat Sheet carries tonight's model-favorite bats with live prices. Weather is context, not a pick — prices are probabilities, and this page tells you where the conditions lean before you shop.
FAQ
Does wind really change home run totals? At some parks, dramatically — the factor above is a park-aware multiplier, and tonight's slate spans 0.72 to 1.25. The same wind speed can boost one park and do nothing at another because fence distances and orientation differ.
When is this page updated? The board refreshes throughout the day as the model reruns; numbers reflect the latest run before first pitch.
Do roof games have a weather edge? No — indoor and closed-roof games play weather-neutral, which is exactly why they are listed separately above.
Bottom Line
7 parks with a real HR tailwind tonight, 1 fighting it, and the rest near neutral. Check the factor, cross it with the Cheat Sheet's featured bats, and shop the price. Model estimates, not betting advice — lines move, weather changes, and the number you get matters more than the forecast.
