San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres Home Run Picks Today (8/1)
Home runs win slates. Here's a quick look at the best long-ball bets for San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres before first pitch — and where each pays the most.
On the board for San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres: Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Bryce Eldridge, Willy Adames, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +402 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 19.9% | 32 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 32 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +495 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 16.8% | 31 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 31 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 32 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 33 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | +540 | Unibet | 15.6% | 32 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | +641 | NoVig | 13.5% | 27 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 1, 2026 · 01:35 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 97.4 · wind 3 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +471 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · NoVig +471
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 38% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · NoVig +488
- Rafael Devers (SF) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · NoVig +400
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · NoVig +506
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 50% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +465 · NoVig +506
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · NoVig +525
- Willy Adames (SF) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · NoVig +506
- Ty France (SD) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +600 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · NoVig +590
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- CharlieChip on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Under 8.5 Total Runs (-113). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- Conormacpicks on Tails likes Willy Adames Over 0.5 Total RBIs (+185). Bet now
- FullProofSportsBetting on Tails likes Under 9.5 Total Runs (-153).
- OS Lottos on Tails likes Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Total Hits (+105). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres. CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, FullProofSportsBetting post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres today? Rafael Devers at +402 (PolymarketUS 🎁) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
