2026 US Open Bets: Matsuyama and Aberg at Shinnecock
I covered my three US Open outright picks in a separate piece. This one is for two bets that don't fall into the straight winner market: a nationality prop and a Top 10 play. Different bet types, same course, same reasoning about what Shinnecock Hills asks of a player.
Here are the two bets I am adding to the card.
In Summary
- Hideki Matsuyama Top Japanese Player (-112): there are several Japanese players in the field, but Matsuyama and Ryo Hisatsune are the most prominent names in this market. Shinnecock is a venue that exposes the gap between them. Matsuyama's talent, experience, and major pedigree make him the right side at this price.
- Ludvig Aberg Top 10 with Ties (+235): we do not need Aberg to win. A T4 at the PGA Championship this year and elite tee-to-green numbers tell you he belongs in contention at a ball-striking test. Over 2-1 to be on the first page of the leaderboard is a price worth taking.
- Both of these markets can vary significantly across sportsbooks. OddsShopper shows you the best available number before you commit.
Bet 1: Hideki Matsuyama Top Japanese Player (-112)
The Top Japanese Player market covers every Japanese player in the field, and this week the most prominent names alongside Matsuyama are Ryo Hisatsune and a handful of others. Hisatsune is the one drawing the most attention given his 2026 form on the PGA Tour.
Hisatsune is a good player. But Shinnecock Hills is a completely different test from a typical DP World Tour event. The US Open setup, the firm and fast conditions, the brutal rough, the premium on course management under major championship pressure — these are the things that separate players who have been here before from players who haven't. Matsuyama has been here many times. He has a Masters title on his resume and has competed at the highest level of major championship golf for years. That experience matters at Shinnecock.
At -112, you are not getting much juice for backing Matsuyama, but that is the point. The market respects Hisatsune's form. I think the course tips this further toward Matsuyama than the price suggests, and a -112 line on a player with his major pedigree in this specific setup is a bet I am comfortable making.
Ben Rasa's Tails golf card is where his weekly outright plays live, with the course-fit, form, and matchup reasoning behind every pick laid out so you see why it is on the card. If you would rather follow a sharp than build the model yourself, follow Ben Rasa's golf card on Tails. New to Tails? Code EAGLE15 takes 15% off your first week or month: Follow Ben's card
Bet 2: Ludvig Aberg Top 10 with Ties (+235)
Aberg is a name I keep coming back to this week, and the Top 10 market is the right way to bet him. We do not need him to win. We do not need him to be perfect. We just need him to be in the mix, and everything about his game says he will be at Shinnecock.
He was T4 at the PGA Championship this year. That is a concrete data point on a major championship course under major championship pressure. His tee-to-green numbers are elite, which is the stat that matters most at Shinnecock Hills. A US Open setup rewards the player who can hit fairways, attack the right sectors of small greens, and avoid the catastrophic mistakes the rough punishes you with when you miss. That profile fits Aberg.
Maybe this is the week he breaks through fully. Maybe he finishes just outside the top five and the ticket still cashes. At +235, you are getting over 2-1 that he appears on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday. For a player with his ball-striking profile at a course that specifically rewards ball-striking, that is a number I can work with.
The Top 10 with ties format also matters here. If there is a logjam at 9th or 10th place, ties count. You are not getting squeezed out by a single shot.
Line Shopping on These Markets
Nationality props and Top 10 markets are the kinds of bets where books price differently. Some books will be sharper on the outright winner market and leave the specialty markets softer. Before you place either of these, check OddsShopper for the best available number. On a +235 Top 10 bet, finding +260 or +270 at a different book changes the value of the bet meaningfully.
