After getting no-hit last night, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to avoid going down 3-2 in the World Series before going back to Houston. As we continue our World Series coverage, this post will focus on our Astros-Phillies Game 5 prediction, odds, and pick.
World Series Odds: Astros-Phillies Game 5 Prediction
Justin Verlander to Bounce Back
Right-hander Justin Verlander is taking the mound for the Houston Astros in this pivotal Game 5. After struggling mightily in Game 1, will this year’s likely AL Cy Young award winner bounce back in his final start of the year?
Through 28 starts this season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His metrics this year are also spectacular as he boasts a .255 xwOBA, .207 xBA and .331 xSLG.
In his lone start against Philadelphia in the regular season, Verlander was nearly perfect as he threw five hitless innings while allowing one walk and striking out 10. While his second start against the Phillies went the opposite direction in Game 1, the pendulum should now swing back in the other direction and the likely scenario is that he gives a performance somewhere in the middle of those two starts – which should be good enough for a victory in Game 5.
Following Verlander is one of the best bullpens in baseball. During the regular season, Houston’s relief pitching ranked first in ERA, fifth in WHIP, fourth in batting average, second in slugging, second in wOBA and first in FIP.
Additionally, this pitching staff should get a ton of run support, with the Phillies planning to go with a bullpen game.
Do Not Trust the Phillies Bullpen
Over the final two months of the regular season, Philadelphia’s relief pitching ranked 27th in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 29th in batting average, 24th in slugging and 27th in wOBA. The Phillies have gone with a bullpen game twice this postseason and allowed a total of nine runs.
For some reason, they believe it is a wise decision to do so again, with Noah Syndergaard to start it off.
Though Syndergaard has been solid, his metrics suggest that regression is looming. The right-hander has generated a troubling .325 xwOBA, .265 xBA and .420 xSLG.
With a lot of favorable matchups against right-handed pitching, look for Houston to produce offense early and often against Syndergaard and an underwhelming bullpen.
Final Astros-Phillies Game 5 Prediction and Pick
The Phillies are obviously not going to get no-hit again, so they will likely come out strong in this game after what happened last night. That being said, their bullpen should not be trusted in what is likely to be the pivotal game of this series.
In this matchup, the Astros are going to have the better starting pitcher, bullpen and lineup. With positive regression likely looming for Verlander, the Phillies are in a lot of trouble as they could be going back to Houston down 3-2 in the World Series.
Astros-Phillies Game 5 Pick: Houston Moneyline (-150, PointsBet)
