It’s only Week 4, but the No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies haven’t had the season they hoped they would. The Aggies suffered a crushing home loss to the Appalachian State Mountaineers in Week 2, and although they righted the ship against the Miami Hurricanes in Week 3, the team still doesn’t look right. The sportsbooks predict Texas A&M will beat Arkansas narrowly in the Southwest Classic, but bettors can find value in backing the Razorbacks.
The Arkansas offense looked exceptional until the start of Week 3’s game against Missouri State. However, the No. 10 Razorbacks managed to rally, and they come into this matchup with an advantage in the AP Poll. That said, the books are skeptical of their ability to head win this one in Arlington. That uncertainty is misplaced — and it’s good news for bettors.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Predictions and Week 4 Picks
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Betting Odds
Splash Playmakers Leading the Way in Fayetteville
The No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks boast a high-powered offense that ranks 33rd in yards per game. The Pigs started the year with a touchdown win over Cincinnati and then beat South Carolina by 14. Last week's matchup against Missouri State was closer than it should've been, but the Pigs rallied late and still won by 11 behind splash plays from quarterback K.J. Jefferson and running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders. Jefferson took a shovel pass 73 yards to the house on one drive, and he broke off a 43-yard run on another.
Jefferson and Sanders have produced yards at a fast clip all season. Jefferson enters Week 4 ranked 19th in passing efficiency and is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (YPA). Sanders ranks 20th among eligible rushers with 6.67 yards per carry (YPC) and has gone for 100-plus rushing yards every game this year. He ranks second in all-purpose yards with 557. The two splash playmakers are responsible for the Razorbacks converting on 48.9% of their third downs, which ranks 31st.
The secondary has been Arkansas' major flaw. Although the pass rush has done its best to compensate -- Arkansas leads the FBS in sacks per game with 5.67 -- the Pigs have surrendered an FBS-worst 352.7 passing yards per game. Losing All-American safety Jalen Catalon hurt the unit, as did losing nickel Myles Slusher. But Slusher has returned to practice and is on track to return.
Texas A&M Trying to Turn It Around
The No. 23 Texas A&M Aggies entered the year with playoff hopes. Those have since been dashed. The Aggies are now 30-1 to make the College Football Playoff, which is worse than Texas (20-1), Washington State (20-1) and even Oregon State (25-1). But the Aggies could begin a turnaround in Week 4 with a win over a quality opponent in Arkansas. Still, Jimbo Fisher's team doesn't look prepared for a successful campaign.
The Texas A&M offense is impotent. The Aggies have failed to reach the 300-yard mark in consecutive games and currently rank 93rd in yards per play with 4.8. Fisher has already moved on from his Week 1 starting quarterback, Haynes King, in favor of Max Johnson, who started at LSU last year. Unfortunately, neither player looks good. King has only 64.7% of his passes for 461 yards and three scores -- but he also owns two interceptions, and all of those touchdowns came against FCS Sam Houston State. Johnson has completed 54.2% of his passes for 163 yards and one score. Johnson got benched at LSU after a terrible start against Arkansas last season.
Jimbo Fisher's team looks bad everywhere but on defense. The offensive line has given up pressure on 34.5% of dropbacks, which ranks 98th. The tight ends haven't stayed healthy, and two receivers were suspended for last week's contest -- although they'll return for Saturday. But again, Fisher's defense is solid -- the Aggies have surrendered only 4.4 yards per play this year, which ranks 22nd.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction
The Southwest Classic has taken place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex., since 2009. A two-year break and the COVID-19 pandemic briefly interfered with its neutral-site status, but the schools returned to Arlington last year, and the Razorbacks won by 10. They hadn't won in Arlington since 2011, but Arkansas is now 2-0 against the spread in neutral-site games under Sam Pittman. In contrast, Texas A&M is 2-5 against the spread in neutral-site games under Jimbo Fisher -- though the school is 6-1 straight up in such games.
This year's Texas A&M team lacks the passing game necessary to exploit Arkansas' vulnerable secondary -- a unit that should get its nickel corner, Myles Slusher, back in time for Saturday. Jimbo Fisher's defense will challenge Sam Pittman's offense, but Jefferson and Sanders have flashed more than enough big-play ability to warrant backing the Razorbacks. Take the Pigs plus the points.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Arkansas +2.5 (-110) at Caesars
