Another week of college football action is in the books. With most teams having played four games, bettors can now get a much firmer sense of how good a given team is relative to their opponent. Bettors looking for early Week 5 college football betting picks and predictions can trust the stats when backing Wake Forest and Minnesota. But numbers aren’t everything — headlines out of Boise render the Broncos a solid value play against visiting San Diego State.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing-line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. The Week 4 CFB column secured closing-line value in two spots. One play hit, one play missed by the hook, and another missed big, bringing the column to 8-4 in finding CLV and 7-5 for hits.
Week 5 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Golden Gophers Remain Underrated
No. 21 Minnesota just blew out Michigan State in East Lansing. The game was never close — Minnesota led by 17 at halftime — and Michigan State’s only points came from backup quarterback Noah Kim. The Gophers opened at -10 over Purdue, but that number has started to tick up and sits at -10.5 in most spots.
An electric running game and solid quarterback play have propelled the Gophers this far. Minnesota ranks 19th in both yards per rush attempt (5.5) and in yards per pass attempt (9). Meanwhile, their defense ranks sixth in yards allowed per play (3.9). Purdue ranks 76th in yards per rush attempt (3.9), 93rd in yards per pass attempt (6.6) and 54th in yards allowed per play (5.3).
The Golden Gophers have allowed three first half points all season and have won their games by an average margin of 39.8 points. In contrast, the 2-2 Purdue Boilermakers lost to Syracuse and Penn State. They barely beat Florida Atlantic last week as well. The Boilermakers can blame the injury that held out star quarterback Aidan O’Connell for their underwhelming play against FAU, but his return won’t be enough for Purdue to cover.
Purdue vs. Minnesota: Minnesota -10 (-115) at WynnBet
No Bachmeier? No Problem for San Diego State
This Friday night matchup has already seen a ton of line movement in Boise State’s favor. The Broncos announced the firing of offensive coordinator Tim Plough on Saturday, and quarterback Hank Bachmeier announced his intention to enter the transfer portal on Monday. The spread opened at -5 for Boise State, fell to -3.5, then swung back to -6. This spread could move to the key number of -7 by kickoff; some books are already trading it at -6.5.
Two key factors make buying low on Boise State a sharp play. First, new quarterback Taylen Green looked great against Oregon State. The dual-threat quarterback completed 67.8% of his passes for 155 yards and added 102 yards on the ground. He scored two touchdowns rushing but also threw an interception. Second, new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has an impressive resume. Koetter led Boise State to its first conference championships at the FBS level. He has also served as offensive coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He even served as the head coach in Tampa for three seasons. Koetter has been an offensive analyst at Boise State this season, so he isn’t coming into the mix cold.
San Diego State is a sharp fade as well. The Aztecs sit at 2-2 on the year, with wins over FCS Idaho State and Toledo. Their win over Toledo last week required some late-game heroics from quarterback Braxton Burmeister, who almost doubled his passing yardage total from 30 to 65 on the drive. The Aztecs rank 130th in yards passing per game (62.3) and per attempt (3.1). The Boise State Broncos should be able to shut down San Diego State’s one-dimensional offense and score enough to cover.
San Diego State vs. Boise State: Boise State -6 (-110) at Caesars
Demon Deacons Deserve More Respect
No. 22 Wake Forest nearly knocked off Clemson last weekend, yet they enter their Week 5 matchup with the No. 23 Florida State Seminoles as touchdown underdogs. Wake Forest blew out Florida State in Winston-Salem last year, so the opening spread is +7. Some books have already dropped it to +6.5, but bettors should try to get the key number while it remains on the market.
Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman enters Week 5 ranked ninth in passing efficiency. After missing Wake Forest’s opening game, he returned to lead the Demon Deacons to a dominant win over Vanderbilt. He has completed 64% of his passes for 962 yards, 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions this year. Hartman has the slight edge on Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis, who ranks 20th in passing efficiency and has completed 65.9% of his passes for 945 yards, five scores and an interception.
This game feels closer to a toss-up than the odds indicate. Although the 4-0 Seminoles should attract more fans than they have in the recent past, Florida State has still just gone 6-8 against the spread under Mike Norvell at home. Even if the Seminoles truly are back, this spread is far too wide, and it should narrow before kickoff.
Wake Forest vs. Florida State: Wake Forest +7 (+100) at Caesars
