The Brian Kelly-led LSU Tigers are looking to rebound after a discouraging Week 1 loss to Florida State.
LSU pounded the Southern Jaguars last weekend. Quarterback Jayden Daniels looked great, throwing 11 passes and completing 10 of them for 137 yards and 3 touchdowns. LSU won the game 65-17.
Mississippi State is 2-0 and has had a much more convincing resume than LSU so far. It’s not just that the Bulldogs are winning, but how they are winning that makes them enter this game as favorites.
Kickoff is set for 6 p.m. ET Saturday, September 17 at Tiger Stadium.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Week 3 Picks
Can Mississippi State Slow Down Jayden Daniels?
Daniels is among the most explosive quarterbacks in the SEC. While he won’t wow you with his passing, the redshirt junior is a quality dual-threat option for the Tigers. Daniels transferred from Arizona State where he spent three seasons. In two games this year he is 35-for-45 and has a career-high 78% completion rate. Daniels has run for 132 yards and a touchdown as well, despite not needing to spend much time on the field against Southern.
The question when looking to bet this game is if the Bulldogs can slow down Daniels, since he’s the key weapon for the Tigers offense. The Bulldogs haven’t played a great running quarterback yet, as neither Memphis’ Seth Henigan or Arizona’s Jayden de Laura were able to put up more than 20 rushing yards.
The Bulldogs have experience and you can assume that they’ll be ready. Their starting defense is comprised of all seniors and graduates, other than two juniors who return at cornerback. This team is laced with speed, talent and, most importantly, experience. Linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson were the team’s leading tacklers a season ago and are back for their senior years.
The Bulldog’s defense limited Kentucky’s Will Levis, listed as one of the top prospects for the 2023 NFL Draft, to just 150 yards passing, one touchdown and 3 interceptions. They should have the tools in place to tame Daniels this week.
LSU May Not Be Able to Keep Pace Offensively
The Mississippi State offense is electric. They also only have seniors or graduate-level players along their offensive line. That has allowed quarterback Will Rogers to erupt.
Rogers already has the second-most passing yards in school history, behind only Dallas Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott. Rogers has a career-high 78.6 completion rate and is playing at a high level. Mississippi State is averaging the 23rd most points per game in the country at 44.
LSU has three new faces in its secondary so there’s a good chance they won’t be prepared to take on such an aggressive passer like Rogers. LSU allowed Jordan Travis of Florida State to put up 260 yards and 2 touchdowns.
If Travis can do something like that on 20-for-32 passing then there’s no reason Rogers shouldn’t be able to get after it. This is going to be a quarterback-heavy battle as LSU leans heavily on Daniels and Mississippi frequently relies on Rogers for their offensive production.
LSU struggled against an FSU team that doesn’t have high expectations for the season. Daniels might not be able to keep pace with an offense that’s experienced and has one of their best quarterbacks in program history.
Mississippi State vs. LSU Pick
Mississippi State is a slight favorite at most books, and the line has increased from earlier in the week when it was 1.5. I’m not confident that it will matter as Rogers and company should be able to slice and dice LSU. Mississippi State is one of the 30 programs that have converted every game so far with LSU 1-1 against the spread (ATS).
With the majority of their roster back, it should also be noted that Mississippi State was 4-1 ATS on the road last season. Given LSU hasn’t shown much this season, especially in their loss to FSU which arguably shouldn’t have been as close as it was, I’d back the Bulldogs.
Best NCAAF Bet: Mississippi State -2.5 (-107) at FanDuel | Playable to -2.5 (-110)
