It took two overtimes, but Wisconsin fell on the road in Week 7 against the Michigan State Spartans and are now 3-4 on the season. As for Purdue, they’re coming off a 43-37 win over the flailing Nebraska Cornhuskers and now find themselves on the road against a stout defense.
Which team pulls this one out? Let’s analyze both sides.
Wisconsin-Purdue Prediction and Odds
NCAAF odds: Wisconsin-Purdue Odds:
| Purdue Spread | +2.5 (-115) |
| Wisconsin Spread | -2.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| Location | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin |
| Time | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Can The O’Connell-to-Jones Connection Continue?
Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. He’s coming off a game against Nebraska where he threw for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns. Nebraska isn’t very good this season, but O’Connell has still had at least four games of 360 passing yards or more. His connection with wide receiver Charlie Jones is a big part of that. The six-foot receiver had 62 catches for 735 yards and nine touchdowns this year.
That said, their connection could be tested this week against the Badgers who allow only 216 passing yards per game.
The Boilermakers could turn to the run game as they did against Nebraska. Running back Devin Mockobee has 79 carries on the year with 30 of those coming last week. He had 178 yards and a score as well.
Wisconsin ranks 27th against the run, allowing just over 114 yards per game.
Purdue has dealt with injuries all year, but that doesn’t seem to slow them down. They have great wins over teams like Maryland and Minnesota, and lost by just four to Penn State.
Can Mertz And Company Rebound?
The scene in East Lansing last week was rough for the Badgers. They traded scores in the first and fourth quarters, and each team scored a lone touchdown in the second and third. From there, Sparty put them away in double overtime. The game’s score heading into overtime was 21-21, so not exactly high-flying.
The Badgers ran the ball decently. They still managed 4.2 yards per carry with Braelon Allen, who had 29 carries for 123 yards. Against the Spartans, you’d hope for more. This week, they deal with the Boilermakers, who are also solid on defense.
They’re 17th in the nation against the run (100.3 yards per game) and allow less than 250 passing yards per game.
Mertz has been relatively solid passing the ball this season and didn’t show up all that well against the Spartans, completing just 14 passes for 132 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Final Wisconsin-Purdue Prediction & Pick
Both defenses have performed well this year. It’s tempting to take the Badgers at home, where they’ve historically done well. Still, against the somewhat more challenging competition, this team can’t seem to get on track. The Purdue offense has performed well this year, but it’s clear where O’Connell wants to go with the football.
This should be a bit of a defensive battle similar to the Michigan State and Wisconsin game. If not for overtime, that would’ve hit the under at 48.5. This week, with two defenses that rank reasonably well, we’re at 51.5.
It’s hard to take the Badgers at this point, but it’s also difficult to bet against them at home.
So, let’s take the under.
Final Wisconsin-Purdue Pick: Under 51.5 (-110)
