The Seattle Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. If someone told you two years ago that this matchup would feature a quarterback battle between Marcus Mariota and Geno Smith, you would have probably laughed in their face.
But here we are in this NFC matchup. Seattle opened as two-point favorites before coming down to the current line of -1.
As of Friday evening, 60% of the tickets and 78% of the handle are on the Falcons in this contest.
Falcons vs. Seahawks Week 3 NFL Betting Picks and Predictions
Turnovers to Continue Plaguing the Falcons
Atlanta’s 0-2 record to start the season is a little misleading. They lost by one point to the Saints and four points to the Rams, covering the spread against two strong teams.
However, the reason they lost each game was because of their inability to protect the football. They have already amassed five turnovers through just two games.
The concern moving forward is that these turnovers are all coming from Marcus Mariota, who has lost three fumbles and thrown two picks. It is not as if a running back who could get benched is fumbling consistently, rather, it is the team’s starting quarterback. Mariota touches the ball on every play.
You can not be a below average team AND lose the turnover battle in this league. That’s a recipe that almost always leads to losses.
Atlanta has lost three straight road games by an average margin of 12 points dating back to last season.
While their offense has a turnover problem, Atlanta’s defense has a coverage problem. Through the first two weeks, they rank 24th in the league in passing defense and 27th in points against.
These rankings are especially troubling against a Seattle team that throws on 64% of their plays.
12th Man Should Help the Seahawks
In a Mariota vs, Geno Smith dual, the line for this game is telling you that whoever was the home team in this matchup would be favored. Dating back to last season, Seattle is 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four home games.
Seattle won in Russell Wilson‘s homecoming game against the Denver Broncos to open the season. Even with Hackett’s mind-boggling coaching decisions, the Broncos are a much stronger team than Atlanta, which shows the impact of the 12th man in Seattle.
Moving onto the field, Atlanta is a great matchup for a team that throws the ball a ton. We already talked about how bad the Falcons’ pass defense is, but now let’s talk about how shockingly decent Geno Smith has been under center.
Smith boasts an 81% completion percentage with a 99.1 rating so far this season. To put that figure in perspective, Smith currently boasts a higher rating than Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.
Smith’s job is made easier due to his weapons in the passing offense, particularly DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. This duo should be a massive problem for the Falcons.
Falcons vs. Seahawks Prediction
Let’s dive into the receiver dilemma for Atlanta. Metcalf and Lockett need no introduction. Those two are a combo that has given secondaries problems for the past few seasons.
According to PFF, the Falcons entered the season with the 11th worst secondary in football. We have seen this come to fruition through the first two weeks of the season.
Atlanta gave up 15 catches for 161 yards and three touchdowns to Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson last week. They gave up 12 catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns to Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas the week prior.
With the majority of Seattle’s offense going through their two best receivers, look for them to have a big game at home and grab a victory.
Falcons vs. Seahawks Prediction: Seahawks ML (-110) at Caesars
