The NFL makes its triumphant return this week on Thursday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills will head to sunny California for a date with the Los Angeles Rams, football’s reigning Super Bowl champions. The NFL betting markets are already abuzz with action for Thursday’s contest on both traditional options and player props alike. Here are our top bets and predictions for Buffalo’s game against Los Angeles on Thursday.
Bills vs. Rams Week 1 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Bills vs. Rams Betting Odds
Bills Used Offseason to Supplement an Already-Stacked Roster
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills were fun to watch on offense last year. They came oh-so-close to earning a bid to the AFC Championship game after repeating as AFC East champions. The Bills ranked fifth in overall offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) despite mediocre play from their running backs. Another strong season appears to be in the cards with the addition of James Cook and the emergence of Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie.
But it's Buffalo's defense that intrigues me the most heading into 2022. The Bills already ranked second in defensive DVOA, and their elite safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde will continue to pester opposing quarterbacks after combining for 10 interceptions last year. The team also added Von Miller to their pass rush. Both Tim Settle and DaQuan Jones will join their defensive line, where they'll complement 2019 first-round pick Ed Oliver.
That said, the Bills are vulnerable at cornerback. Star Tre'Davious White landed on the PUP list last week. Levi Wallace, who filled in for White last season, is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. That leaves 2020 seventh-rounder Dane Jackson and 2022 first-rounder Kaiir Elam as Buffalo's top two corners. The Bills allowed only 178.5 passing yards and 0.7 passing touchdowns per game before White's injury last season, but those numbers jumped to 195.8 and 0.8 in meaningful games not affected by bad weather. Buffalo allowed 293 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns per playoff game as well.
Rams Added Offensive Talent, Lost Defensive Depth
The Los Angeles Rams leaned on their passing attack to win a Super Bowl in 2021. The Rams ranked fifth in total passing yards on just the 10th most pass attempts. Stafford finished third in passing yards and second in passing touchdowns. However, he also tied Trevor Lawrence for the league lead in interceptions at 17. The Rams finished fourth in overall DVOA and only eighth in offensive DVOA.
Like the Bills, Sean McVay's club made some savvy off-season moves. The Rams added Bobby Wagner at linebacker and Allen Robinson II at wide receiver. That said, Los Angeles lost left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Austin Corbett. They brought in Joe Noteboom to replace Whitworth, but backup center Coleman Shelton is projected to replace Corbett, and he might be a vulnerability.
One defense, the Rams must replace cornerback Darious Williams. Though overshadowed by Jalen Ramsey, Williams earned a better PFF grade than the superstar corner in both 2020 and 2019. Replacing him is 31-year-old Troy Hill. Like the Bills, the Rams could be vulnerable in the secondary -- but they do have the benefit of veteran safeties to help bail out Hill. Star Jordan Fuller is returning from a season-ending ankle injury, and Taylor Rapp has been serviceable alongside him.
Bills vs. Rams Prediction
The Los Angeles Rams opened as 1-point home favorites over the Bills, but offseason bets led the books to make Buffalo a 2-to-2.5-point favorite on the road. The total hasn't seen such dramatic movement. It opened at 52, which is right where it sits at most books -- although some have dropped it to 51.5. Roughly 55% of the cash on 51% of the tickets has come in on Buffalo.
Buffalo went a solid 12-8 ATS last year, while the Rams went a much less impressive 10-11 ATS. Still, Sean McVay's squad went 5-6 ATS at home and covered in their only game as a home underdog. The Rams are just 9-13 ATS against AFC opponents since Sean McVay took over in 2017, but they are 16-7 straight-up. In contrast, the Bills are 13-6-2 ATS and 14-7 SU against NFC opponents since Sean McDermott took over that same year.
The spread doesn't offer much value in what should be a close game. Buffalo made sense as a value bet when the moneyline was right around even, but it's hard to stomach buying them to cover a wider spread, especially now that Tre'Davious White is officially out. Instead, back the Over -- the roster turnover in both teams' secondaries should allow reinvigorated passing offenses to run up the score on Thursday Night Football.
