We have a more condensed group of games to look at in Week 6 because teams are starting to have their bye weeks. This Sunday’s slate has eight early games, three games in the afternoon and then caps things off with a Sunday Night Football showdown in Philadelphia between the Cowboys and Eagles.
Using OddsShopper’s “Parlay Builder” tool, we’ll look to build our bankroll using the “Chalk Eater” section to find some heavy favorites that show value according to Stokastic’s projections.
This week’s parlay is from DraftKings. It’s a 5 leg parlay at +720 odds, with an expected ROI of 120% and an expected win rate of 28%. A $100 bet would profit $720 if it wins, which is probably a nice boost to your bankroll.
NFL Week 6 Profitable Parlay
Tyler Boyd Total Receptions u4.5 (-170)
Boyd has not been able to hit five receptions in any of the first five games of the year. That is mostly due to the fact that he’s only averaging 4.6 targets per game. Five receptions is a big ask against New Orleans’ solid pass defense. The Saints rank 13th in pass DVOA, and we expect Boyd to struggle with hitting a pretty high number. Stokastic has Boyd projected at 3.3 receptions, and u4.5 receptions has an expected win rate of 81%.
Jerick McKinnon Total Receptions u2.5 (-205)
McKinnon started the first game of the season with 3 receptions, but that is the only game this year that he has cleared the 2.5 receptions mark. Through the last 4 weeks, McKinnon has only had a total of 5 receptions and is seeing less opportunities overall. On top of that, the Chiefs are facing off against the Bills, who have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Stokastic has McKinnon projected at 1.6 receptions, with the u2.5 receptions at an expected win rate of 79%.
PJ Walker Passing Touchdowns u1.5 (-270)
Walker is making his first start of the season with the injury to QB Baker Mayfield. The Rams’ passing defense hasn’t looked great to start the year, but they rank middle of the pack in passing DVOA. We expect a get right spot for them against this Panthers offense, especially with PJ Walker leading the charge. Stokastic has Walker projected at 1 passing touchdown. The u1.5 passing touchdowns has an expected win rate of 76%.
Deebo Samuel Total Receptions u5.5 (-160)
Samuel has only averaged 4 receptions per game through the first five weeks of the year. He also has only covered his o5.5 receptions line once. With George Kittle becoming more important to this team every week, and the run game being their key emphasis, we expect Deebo to struggle to hit 6 receptions on Sunday. Stokastic has Samuel projected at 4.4 receptions, with the u5.5 receptions having an expected win rate of 74%.
Miles Sanders Total Receptions u2.5 (-200)
We’ll look to the Sunday night game between the Eagles and Cowboys to finish up the parlay. Sanders, like most of the other players on this list, has struggled to clear his line to start the first 5 weeks. He has only cleared this line once, and is averaging just 2 receptions per game on only 2.4 targets. Sanders hasn’t been very involved in the passing game due to the number of weapons the Eagles’ passing core has. Stokastic has Sanders projected at 1.7 receptions. The under 2.5 receptions has an expected win rate of 77%.
