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Lindy's MLB picks for Thursday, August 13 come down to five official plays across a nine-game card headlined by the Field of Dreams game in Iowa: a Cleveland Guardians moneyline he called his favorite play of the day, a Payton Tolle (BOS) strikeout over he sized down for a lineup-card reason, a Walbert Suero (LAA) strikeout over on a pick'em app, and a Nationals-Cubs/Rangers-Angels total pair. Eric Lindquist opened the show digging out of a rough Wednesday: an 0-2 hook out of the gate on Zebby Matthews (MIN), Zack Wheeler (PHI) getting pulled early, a whiffed 12-leg pick'em, and an 0-for-5 night in the home run department while Alex Bregman (BOS) hit three homers in a game Lindy already had the over on.
Payton Tolle — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Thursday, August 13 has five official plays: the Cleveland Guardians moneyline (half unit, his favorite play of the day), Payton Tolle (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts, Walbert Suero (LAA) over 4.5 strikeouts on a pick'em app, the Nationals-Cubs total over 8.5, and the Rangers-Angels total under 8.5. He's also watching three games he isn't playing, including the Brewers-Dodgers series opener he's staying away from despite calling it the game of the night. The full breakdown of all five plays, and why he's passing on the marquee matchup, is below.
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The Plays At A Glance
- Cleveland Guardians (CLE) moneyline vs the Detroit Tigers (DET), half unit, his favorite play of the day
- Payton Tolle (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts vs the Toronto Blue Jays (TOR), sized down off his usual half unit
- Walbert Suero (LAA) over 4.5 strikeouts vs the Texas Rangers (TEX), a pick'em-app play
- Nationals-Cubs Total over 8.5, a small stake
- Rangers-Angels Total under 8.5, a small stake, the total-side mirror of the Suero game
He also talked through three games he's watching but not betting: a Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) first-five idea against the Miami Marlins (MIA) that he ultimately passed on, a Logan Gilbert (SEA) matchup he's still chewing on, and the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) at Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) series opener, the game he called the best of the weekend but is staying off entirely. Those stay leans and passes, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Wednesday's Recap: A Rough Start, A Recovery, Still 0-For-5 On Homers
Lindy opened Thursday's show looking back at a card he described as "kind of a weird day." He started 0-2 right out of the gate on Zebby Matthews (MIN), who got hooked early, and watched Zack Wheeler (PHI) fall apart and get pulled with a brutal hook of his own. The card turned with a walk-prop hit on Robbie Ray and Chase DeLauter, and the biggest single play of the video, a Daniel Lynch under 9.5 outs, came through as one of the night's best numbers. A 12-leg pick'em card missed. Pittsburgh was never competitive for a quarter-unit play, and an over cashed easily in the Cubs-Washington game. The home run card went 0-for-5, punctuated by watching Alex Bregman (BOS) hit three homers in a game where Lindy already had the over. He called the day "slightly down" but said the process, especially on pitcher strikeout props, is "pretty spot-on."
His Favorite Play Of The Day: Cleveland's Mispriced Moneyline
Every book Lindy checked had Cleveland priced short against Detroit, and he thinks the whole market is wrong about it. Parker Messick (CLE) is a clear pitching-quality edge over Keider Montero (DET) even setting aside Messick's ERA, which Lindy waves off in favor of the underlying metrics. The Guardians' lineup carries a strong wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, while the Tigers sit in the bottom decile of the league over the same stretch. Cleveland has also reshaped the roster this year, subtracting a couple of players Lindy called clubhouse headaches. Detroit's counterpunch has to come from its power lefties, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Kevin McGonigle, all of whom need to show up for the Tigers to make this competitive. Lindy called this 20 to 25 cents off fair value in his own estimation. Cleveland Guardians moneyline, half unit, his favorite play of the day. Our live MLB moneyline screen shows this kind of book-to-book gap in real time.
Payton Tolle's Strikeout Number, Sized Down For A Lineup-Card Reason
Lindy likes Payton Tolle (BOS) to miss bats against a Toronto lineup that, unlike the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox chasing October in a loaded American League East, has nothing left to play for. Every major projection model he trusts, in his words "zips and steamer and everybody," lines up around the same strikeout total, pricing this close to a coin flip in his estimation. The reason he didn't back it for his usual half unit is roster risk: Toronto could bench its normal strikeout-prone bats and lead off with Ernie Clement, who carries the lowest strikeout rate on the team, out of nowhere given how meaningless the standings math has become for a Blue Jays club that's effectively locked into October either way. He still likes the shape enough to play it smaller. Payton Tolle (BOS) over 5.5 strikeouts, sized down from his usual half unit.
A Pick'Em Strikeout Play Riding An Extreme Groundballer
Lindy's read on the Rangers-Angels game starts with Jacob deGrom (TEX), an extreme groundball pitcher who limits the kind of contact that turns into runs, which supports staying under as a team total. On the other side, he likes Walbert Suero (LAA) to clear his strikeout number against a Rangers lineup, even without a sportsbook line posted yet at the time of the show, guessing the number lands around 4.5 based on his own projections. He fired this one on a pick'em app rather than at a traditional sportsbook. Walbert Suero (LAA) over 4.5 strikeouts, a pick'em-app play.
Two Small Totals, Same Process That Worked On Tuesday
Lindy closed out his official card with a pair of small-stake total plays. In Washington, Kevin Gausman (CHC) hasn't looked like himself this year, with a splitter that isn't fooling anyone and a fastball that isn't missing bats, while Cade Cavalli (WSH) has actually pitched well across from him; weather is also in play at Nationals Park. Nationals-Cubs total over 8.5, a small stake. Back in the Rangers-Angels game, the same deGrom groundball profile that supports the strikeout play above also supports the under on the game total: 8 is the key number here, since any 4-4 final automatically pushes the total over regardless of how the rest of the line settles. Rangers-Angels total under 8.5, a small stake. Lindy sized both at roughly a third of a unit, the same small-stake approach that paid off on a similar total earlier in the week.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians (CLE) | Moneyline vs Detroit | Half unit, favorite play of the day |
| Payton Tolle (BOS) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | Sized down from a half unit |
| Walbert Suero (LAA) | Over 4.5 strikeouts | Pick'em-app play |
| Nationals-Cubs | Total over 8.5 | Small stake |
| Rangers-Angels | Total under 8.5 | Small stake |
That five-play card is deliberately compact. Lindy talked at length about several other games without ever pulling the trigger, and the market data behind two of those games shows why the numbers weren't clean enough to fire.
Passing On Pittsburgh's First Five, Even With A Live Number In Front Of Him
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) takes the mound for a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that's scored almost nothing lately, missing Ryan O'Hearn in the middle of the order and sitting on one run total across its last two games. Lindy floated a Pittsburgh first-five moneyline idea out loud mid-show, but talked himself out of it once he weighed the other side: the Marlins offense he'd need to lean against has been just as uninspiring. Both lineups are punchless enough that he landed on staying cautious rather than picking a side. Marlins starter Tyler Phillips (MIA) is currently priced at Under 3.5 strikeouts at DraftKings (+130, fair probability 43.7%), a live number worth watching even though Lindy didn't fire anything on this game.
An Idea He's Still Chewing On: Logan Gilbert Home Run Problem
Lindy spent real time on the Yankees (NYY) at Mariners (SEA) game without landing on a play. His actual angle is Logan Gilbert (SEA) vulnerability to right-handed power: Gilbert's fastball has allowed an average launch angle north of 23 degrees to right-handed hitters this season, a wart on an otherwise solid pitcher. Rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr. (NYY), projected to bat ninth for New York, brings enough raw pop that Lindy sees only upside in a lineup spot the market tends to underprice. He never turned that into an official play, calling it an idea rather than a bet. Yankees starter Max Fried (NYY) is currently priced at Under 6.5 strikeouts at DraftKings (-144, fair probability 59.2%), the live number on the other side of this matchup.
Staying Away From The Game Of The Weekend
Lindy called the Brewers (MIL) at Dodgers (LAD) series opener the game of the night and probably the series of the weekend, and passed on it entirely anyway. Roki Sasaki (LAD) stuff continues to trend up, but hot weather and wind blowing out in Los Angeles turn this into exactly the kind of hitter-friendly environment that amplifies his home run risk. Garrett Mitchell (MIL) to record a hit tempted him, but not enough to override the game-environment concern. "For once, might be staying away," is how he put it. The live board still moved on this game regardless of Lindy sitting out: Milwaukee starter Shane Drohan (MIL) is priced Under 4.5 strikeouts at Bet365 (+105), a price that implies roughly a 49% chance against a fair probability our board has closer to 54.1%, a real gap worth a look even though Lindy didn't play it. The Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline sits at Bet365 (-135, fair probability 57.6%), a number close enough to its own implied price that there's no real edge either way.
Worked Example: Reading A Moneyline Against A Fair Number
The Dodgers' -135 price on Bet365 implies roughly a 57.6% win probability once the book's hold is stripped out, which happens to match the fair number in the table above almost exactly, a sign this particular line is priced efficiently rather than sitting on real edge. That's the same math Lindy is running in his head on every play on this page, including the Guardians moneyline he did fire: find the gap between what a price implies and what he thinks the real number is, and only bet when that gap is wide enough to matter. Our guide to finding +EV bets walks through the full de-vig math if you want to build this process yourself.
The Field Of Dreams Game, And A Few More Notes
Thursday's marquee side event is the Field of Dreams game in Iowa, where Taj Bradley (TB) takes on the Philadelphia Phillies (PHI). Lindy flagged an 8.5 total that looks reasonable on paper, but 85% humidity at first pitch has him wary of trusting anything about that ballpark's power factor, and he didn't fire a play there. The name to watch is Kyle Schwarber (PHI): a Schwarber walk was one leg of a parlay from fellow OddsShopper handicapper Eytan, alongside a JJ Weatherholt walk and the Phillies moneyline, that cashed two nights ago. Elsewhere, the Reds (CIN) at White Sox (CHW) game carries its own weather angle: a pop-up shower or in-game delay could shorten either starter's outing, supporting an unders-on-outs approach, though Lindy flagged the market's number on that side as already inflated and didn't turn it into a clean play.
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Lindy's Discord Is Heating Up
Lindy also shouted out the Discord community building around this show, specifically a new "sub tickets" channel where subscribers post their own research alongside picks from active Tails experts, John the Bettis among them. He called the accountability and daily volume of real research from the group one of the more rewarding parts of running the show. He also floated the idea of bringing back Live with Lindy, a live-betting watch-along stream, as soon as Friday.
