Lindy's MLB picks for Friday, August 14 come down to ten official plays spread across a loaded 15-game card, and the through-line is discipline: a busy Friday card rewards picking your specific mismatches instead of trying to touch every game. Eric Lindquist opened the show still shaking off a rough Thursday, an 0-2 hook that included getting baited into a Jacob deGrom strikeout number right before deGrom left with forearm tightness, before a two-unit home run parlay capped by Kyle Schwarber (PHI) salvaged the day. Friday's card leans hard on two home run mismatches he's been waiting weeks to play, a pair of strikeout ladders, and a handful of small-stake totals, plus a few games he's watching closely but not ready to fire on yet.
Kyle Schwarber — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Friday, August 14 card has ten official plays: a Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) home run he's calling his biggest play of the day, plus two more home run swings on Trent Grisham (NYY) and Jac Caglianone (KC), a two-tier Gavin Williams (CLE) strikeout ladder, a Gage Jump (ATH) strikeout over, a PrizePicks pair on Steven Matz and Kyle Bradish (BAL) unders, a small-slice Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) moneyline, and two small-stake game-total unders. He's also sitting on three leans he didn't fire and a couple of names he's still watching for a number. The full breakdown of all ten plays, and why three other games stay leans instead of bets, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel. Watch him work through all 15 games, from the Wrigley wind read that sets up his biggest play to the late-card totals that close the show. If you'd rather shop these numbers yourself while you watch, OddsShopper Pro is free to try for 7 days.
The Plays At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The size |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | To hit a home run vs Cardinals | His biggest play of the day |
| Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) | Moneyline vs Red Sox | Small slice |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | To hit a home run vs Blue Jays | Full-size home run swing |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 8+ strikeouts / 9+ strikeouts | Quarter unit / tenth of a unit |
| Steven Matz | Under 1.5 strikeouts (PrizePicks) | Pick'em-app play |
| Kyle Bradish (BAL) | Under 1.5 strikeouts | Live opener-length number |
| Mariners-Astros Total | Under 8 | Small stake |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | To hit a home run vs Angels | Full-size home run swing |
| Gage Jump (ATH) | Over 5.5 strikeouts vs Rangers | Loaded up |
| Rockies-Giants Total | Under 8 | Small stake |
That's a full card even by Lindy's standards on a 15-game Friday, and the two home run plays anchor it. Everything else built out from there once he'd locked in the mismatches he trusts most.
His Biggest Play Of The Day: A Wind-In Wrigley Home Run He's Waited All Season For
Lindy has wanted to play Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to go deep for most of the season, and Friday's Cardinals-Cubs game finally gives him the setup. The wind at Wrigley is blowing in at 8 to 10 miles per hour, and Lindy's read is that Wrigley is the most wind-effective ballpark in baseball, so a wind-in day there pushes the public and the market toward betting the under on home run props far harder than the same wind would at a cavern like Cincinnati or San Francisco. That's exactly the trap: Crow-Armstrong is running a historic power season, and Lindy said that in three-plus weeks of tracking this show, he's never once been able to play Crow-Armstrong's home run number at a price he liked, because the market stays too spooked by exactly this kind of wind-in narrative to price him fairly, even though Crow-Armstrong keeps clearing his home run number anyway. Friday is the first time Lindy thinks that gap between the suppressed price and Crow-Armstrong's real form is wide enough to jump on. Matthew Liberatore (STL) is on the mound for St. Louis, and Lindy also flagged that the Cubs' closer isn't a particularly strong arm if the game turns into a save situation late. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to hit a home run, his biggest play of the day.
Two More Home Run Swings: A Leadoff Yankee And A Royals Rookie
Lindy's second and third plays are both plus-money home run swings built on hitters getting new life in the lineup. In Toronto, Trent Grisham (NYY) has moved into the Yankees' leadoff spot and started making more contact after cutting down his strikeouts, and Lindy likes that shift against Shane Bieber (TOR), whose fastball is getting hit hard: a well-above-average isolated power number allowed and a steep launch angle on a pitch he still throws roughly a third of the time to lefties. Gerrit Cole (NYY) starts on the other side. Lindy said he'll back Grisham's home run price in this shape every time it's available. In the nightcap, Kansas City's Jac Caglianone (KC) draws a hitter-friendly setup against a fly-ball-prone starter who's been living in the air against lefties with an elevated isolated power number allowed, in a game where the weather in Anaheim was running warmer and more humid than typical for mid-August. Seth Lugo (KC) starts for the Royals. Lindy said he's comfortable going shorter than his usual home run price when the matchup shape supports it, and this is one of those spots. Trent Grisham (NYY) to hit a home run vs the Blue Jays, and Jac Caglianone (KC) to hit a home run vs the Angels.
The Strikeout Ladder: Gavin Williams Two Ways, Plus Gage Jump
Cleveland's Gavin Williams (CLE) is the strikeout anchor of the card. Over his last 14 days he's running a strikeout rate north of 40%, and over the last month it's still sitting near 38%, numbers Lindy called "ridiculous" heading into a Padres lineup he isn't especially worried about even though San Diego has hit well against some replacement-level arms recently. Michael King (SD) starts opposite him. Lindy played this two ways: a smaller piece on the higher strikeout tier for extra upside, on top of his main play. Gavin Williams (CLE) to reach 8 strikeouts for a quarter unit, and to reach 9 strikeouts for a tenth of a unit. Across the game in Oakland, Gage Jump (ATH) gets a Rangers lineup that's been striking out at an elevated rate against lefties both over the long season and over the last few weeks, and Lindy expects Corey Seager (TEX) back in the lineup despite recent rest days, which only adds to the strikeout-prone shape of that group. Gage Jump (ATH) over 5.5 strikeouts vs the Rangers, a number Lindy said he's comfortable loading up on given the size of the edge he sees.
A PrizePicks Pair Built Around Short Outings
Lindy's fourth and fifth plays both live on PrizePicks and both lean on pitchers who won't be stretched deep into the game. He likes the strikeout number on Steven Matz to come in under, questioning why the app's own model has him pitching deep enough to clear it when the role doesn't support it. On the other side of that game, Kyle Bradish (BAL) is shaping up as an opener working one inning; Lindy walked through the math live, noting that even a two-inning outing would need a strikeout rate of 25% to 35% just to clear his own strikeout number, a bar he thinks is unlikely to be cleared in a short look. Steven Matz under 1.5 strikeouts, and Kyle Bradish (BAL) under 1.5 strikeouts, both on PrizePicks.
The Small Stakes: A Pirates Moneyline And Two Game Totals
Lindy rounded out the card with three smaller plays. Pittsburgh's offense has been reeling, but he's willing to buy a bounce-back against Boston's Jake Bennett after a stretch of tough at-bats, pointing to hitters like Nick Gonzales and Jake Mangum settling back in atop the order behind Bubba Chandler (PIT) on the mound; he sized this one down given how cold the Pirates' bats have looked. Pittsburgh Pirates (PIT) moneyline vs the Red Sox, a small slice. In Houston, George Kirby (SEA) draws an Astros pitching staff that Lindy has trusted all season to keep this ballpark's scoring down, working around a Mariners offense he called "reeling" outside of the occasional Julio Rodríguez or Randy Arozarena home run; Peter Lambert (HOU) starts for Houston and has been the Astros' best arm this year in Lindy's view. Mariners-Astros total under 8, a small stake. And to close the night, Kyle Freeland (COL) is working deep into games away from Coors Field's inflated home numbers, opposite a thin Rockies lineup outside of Hunter Goodman, while Landen Roupp (SF) induces heavy ground-ball contact on the other side. Rockies-Giants total under 8, a small stake.
Three Leans He Didn't Fire
Lindy talked through several other games without pulling the trigger, and the LEAN ≠ PLAY line matters here: these stay leans, not bets. He's leaning toward Sandy Alcantara (MIA) staying under his total-outs number against Chase Burns (CIN) and a shaky Miami lineup, but called the whole game one of the hardest matchups on the card to get behind and didn't size a play. He called the Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) moneyline against Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) and the Dodgers "just a lean," respecting that Milwaukee owns the best record in baseball but stopping short of betting against a Dodgers team he expects to be angry after Thursday's bullpen meltdown. And in Washington, he liked the Mets' lineup enough to lean their moneyline over the Nationals, but the state of the Mets' bullpen kept him from turning it into an actual bet.
Names He's Watching Without A Number Yet
Two more spots stayed pure research for now. Detroit's Jackson Jobe opened with a strikeout number on a pick'em app that Lindy is watching closely, saying he's nervous the number will climb too high once more books post it against a swing-and-miss-prone middle of the White Sox order. And in Arizona, Lindy referenced a recurring "cheat code" angle on Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) against Chris Sale (ATL) and the Braves, but the specific prop wasn't posted yet at show time, so it never became a play.
Worked Example: Reading A De-Vigged Price For The Real Edge
Elsewhere on tonight's board, the same math Lindy runs in his head on every play above shows up in black and white on our live tool. Nolan Schanuel's Under 0.5 total hits prop is priced at +200 at Fanatics, but once every book on the market is stripped of its hold, the de-vigged fair price comes out to +166. That gap between +166 fair and +200 actually available works out to a +12.8% edge, real, verified, and sitting out in the open on a single book most bettors will never think to check against the rest of the market. That's the same exercise behind Lindy's Crow-Armstrong read above, comparing what the real number should be against what's actually posted, and only playing when the gap is wide enough to be worth it. Our guide to finding +EV bets walks through the full de-vig math if you want to run this process yourself before first pitch.
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OddsShopper takes the number-hunting off your plate on nights like this one, when 15 games are on the board and the real edges are scattered across different books. It checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the spots where the price is better than the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind the home run plays and totals above. For the mechanics behind why that gap exists in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig in plain language, and our MLB strikeout props breakdown covers the pitching side of tonight's board in more depth, alongside our MLB hits props roundup.
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