Lindy's MLB picks for Wednesday, August 19 came down to nine official plays on a 15-game card, and every one of them traces back to the line he keeps repeating on this program: it's price and probability, whatever market it's hiding in. That's a Paul Skenes (PIT) first-five buyback after two straight months fading him, an AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) outs number to open the card, a Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) earned-run number he's bet five times running, a Matt McLain (CIN) home run he's been waiting all season to recommend, and the play he's calling his last of the night: Jake McCarthy (COL) to go deep at Coors Field. Eric Lindquist opened the show still riding a hot week and a half: Jo Adell (CLE) went deep, Kyle Harrison strikeout number cashed easily, and the Dodgers-Rockies total smashed, with only a Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) outs number missing from an otherwise clean card. Three of Wednesday's nine plays are home runs, each argued on tonight's own matchup: Crow-Armstrong against a shaky White Sox bullpen, McLain against a homer-prone Liberatore, and McCarthy against an inconsistent Sasaki splitter at Coors.
Paul Skenes — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's card for Wednesday, August 19 has nine official plays: a Paul Skenes (PIT) first-five run line buyback, an AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) outs under, Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to homer for a fourth straight night, a Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) earned-run under, a Yankees-Orioles game total over, a Cleveland Guardians run line, a Matt McLain (CIN) home run at plus-600, a Dustin May (MIL) strikeout over, and Jake McCarthy (COL) to homer at Coors Field to close the card. The full breakdown of all nine plays, plus the spots he talked through and passed on, is below.
Watch The Video
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through all 15 games on the Wednesday card in real time. Watch him get there.
The Plays At A Glance
- Paul Skenes (PIT) first-five run line at minus-110, a buyback after two months fading him, three-tenths of a unit, vs the Detroit Tigers
- AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) under his pitching-outs number at minus-105, opening the card, vs the Minnesota Twins
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to hit a home run, chasing a fourth straight night on the play, in the rain-delayed crosstown series vs the Chicago White Sox
- Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under his earned-runs number at minus-110, a play Lindy's now bet five times in a row, vs the Boston Red Sox
- Yankees-Orioles Total over 9.5 runs, half a unit, Lindy's heaviest play of the night, a number he thinks should be a full run higher
- Cleveland Guardians run line at plus-125, three-tenths of a unit, vs the San Francisco Giants
- Matt McLain (CIN) to hit a home run at plus-600, his first recommendation on McLain in three months after an earlier 0-1 stretch, vs St. Louis's Matthew Liberatore
- Dustin May (MIL) over his strikeout number at plus-125 on Bet365, vs the Seattle Mariners
- Jake McCarthy (COL) to hit a home run, Lindy's last play of the night, vs the Dodgers' Roki Sasaki at Coors Field
He also talked through several spots he passed on or is still watching: a Michael King (SD) game total lean he never fired, an Aaron Nola (PHI) total he called himself out for not finding, a Tampa Bay team-total ladder he's waiting on lines for, a Gage Jump (ATH) strikeout ladder with no number posted yet, a Kumar Rocker (TEX) strikeout price he flagged as too short but didn't bet, and an Angels-Astros moneyline he explicitly said he's staying away from. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits Lindy with what he actually fired.
Tuesday's Hot Card Sets Up Wednesday
Lindy opened Wednesday's show still running hot off Tuesday's card: Jo Adell (CLE) went deep, Robbie Ray's addition padded an underdog card, Kyle Harrison (MIL) strikeout number went over easily, and the Dodgers-Rockies total smashed as expected. The only miss was Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) outs number, a small quarter-unit slice that didn't cash, a minor blemish on an otherwise clean day. It's been a week and a half now of home runs carrying this program, but Lindy said he's not chasing Tuesday's one miss with a forced bet: Wednesday's card, home run plays included, gets judged on its own matchups, not on the last week and a half's results. Three of the nine plays are home runs, and the biggest one closes the show.
Paul Skenes Gets A Buyback After Two Months Of Fading Him
The first official play flips a stance Lindy has held for two straight months. He's been attacking Paul Skenes (PIT) against the market since his velocity slid from a peak near 97 down into the mid-90s, and he called that the right read for the entire stretch. What changed Wednesday: the Pirates held Skenes out of his Sunday turn, pushing him back on extra rest. Lindy isolated the matchup to the first five innings specifically because Pittsburgh's bullpen has been lacking all year; he wants Skenes's five strong innings without carrying that risk into the back of the game. Paul Skenes (PIT) first-five run line at minus-110 (the standard number at Hard Rock and DraftKings), three-tenths of a unit, vs Detroit's Jackson Jobe.
AJ Smith-Shawver Opens The Card On A Short Leash
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) draws the outs-under to open Wednesday's card against Taj Bradley and the Minnesota Twins. Lindy's case is workload, not stuff: Smith-Shawver threw under 70 pitches in his last outing, and even ramping him up to roughly 79 pitches for this start, Lindy still landed on something close to a 57-58% chance he doesn't complete five innings. He noted that most of his own projection sources are more bullish on Smith-Shawver's pitch count than he is, but Ballpark Pal, unusually, lines up with his lower number, a rare spot of agreement he called out live. The lefty power waiting in Minnesota's lineup is the other half of the case: a short Smith-Shawver outing gets the Braves out of that matchup fast. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) under his pitching-outs number at minus-105.
Pete Crow-Armstrong Chases A Fourth Straight Night
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) gets the home run call for a fourth consecutive night in the rain-delayed Cubs-White Sox crosstown series, a game that sat 3-3 in a weather delay as Lindy recorded the show. Lindy's stayed on Crow-Armstrong's home run number for three straight nights on the same case, and Wednesday's wrinkle, a left-handed opener for the White Sox, didn't change his read: the bullpen behind that opener still isn't one that scares him. Lindy called him a "loft king," a label the two backed up last season betting his home run number profitably at plus-700 and plus-800 prices early in his breakout run. The wind is blowing back in rather than out on Wednesday, a variable working against the play. Lindy didn't cite tonight's exact price on air. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to hit a home run, continuing the streak.
Brandon Pfaadt Is The Play Lindy's Bet Five Times Running
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) draws what Lindy called a "super secret" play he's now bet five times in a row against the Boston Red Sox and Payton Tolle: the under on his earned-runs number at minus-110. Lindy's case leans on location more than swing-and-miss stuff — he called Pfaadt a location artist working against the hottest offense in baseball right now, and said the price has crept to where it's starting to feel uncomfortable even as he keeps riding it. The market's independently pricing this game the same defensive way Lindy is betting it: Pfaadt's own strikeout number is priced at plus-115 on Bet365 for the under, a fair price of roughly plus-105, while several hitters in this exact game — Gabriel Moreno, Ryan Waldschmidt, Nick Sogard, Caleb Durbin, and Andruw Monasterio — are all priced with real value on going hitless, each carrying a takeable price better than its de-vigged fair number. That's a game the board is treating as tight all the way through, which is the same shape as Lindy's earned-run under. Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under 2.5 earned runs at minus-110.
Worked Example: Why The Market Agrees With Lindy Here
Take Gabriel Moreno from that same Diamondbacks-Red Sox game: the fair, de-vigged price on him going hitless works out to roughly plus-176, and Bet365 is offering plus-195 on the same outcome, a real 6.9% edge over the fair number. Nick Sogard's version of the same bet carries a 4.8% edge at plus-185 against a plus-172 fair price. That's the exact mechanic behind the hits-and-strikeouts board above: find the same outcome priced differently across books, de-vig it to a fair number, and only take the gap that's actually there. Lindy's plays above run on the same price-vs-probability test, just read through matchup and workload analysis instead of an automated cross-book scan. Our MLB hits props board tracks these same kinds of gaps across the rest of tonight's card.
Two Totals And A Run Line Round Out The Middle Of The Card
Will Warren (NYY) and Chris Bassitt (BAL) headline what Lindy called his heaviest play of the night: a Yankees-Orioles total he thinks the market has flat-out wrong. The total opened at 9 with the vig skewed minus-115/minus-120, and it's since moved to 9.5, where Lindy's taking the over for half a unit, still arguing the number should be a full run higher given how far the Baltimore bullpen and Warren's lefty-power problems have fallen off. Camden Yards is a fruitful park for exactly that kind of contact. The Cleveland Guardians get the run-line call against the Giants, a play Lindy first backed for a quarter unit Tuesday and sized up to three-tenths of a unit Wednesday at an improved plus-125. San Francisco rolled out a lineup missing Luis Rey and Casey Schmidt, and Lindy likes Cleveland's bullpen depth even after it cost him a moneyline ticket two weeks ago. Yankees-Orioles total over 9.5, half a unit. Cleveland Guardians run line at plus-125, three-tenths of a unit.
Matt McLain Finally Gets The Call
Matt McLain (CIN) is the home run play Lindy said he's been waiting all season to recommend, against St. Louis's Matthew Liberatore. He's bet McLain once before this season and lost, and hasn't put him back on the card in three months. Wednesday marks his return, at plus-600 for McLain to hit a home run. McLain still loads up on the ball even after a rough season overall, and Liberatore has allowed 1.5 home runs per nine, a number the pitch-mix matchup lines up against cleanly, in Lindy's words, "square peg, square hole." The market's own pricing on this exact game backs the read: Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera carries real hitless-prop value tonight at plus-170 on Fanatics against a plus-162 fair price, and Cincinnati's own Ke'Bryan Hayes and Dane Myers show the same shape on the Reds side, at plus-110 on Bet365 against a plus-103 fair price and plus-180 against a plus-166 fair price. Both offenses are being priced as capable of going quiet, exactly the kind of game where one loud swing, like McLain's, is live. Matt McLain (CIN) to hit a home run at plus-600.
Dustin May's Strikeout Number Looks Too Good To Pass
Dustin May (MIL) gets the strikeout call against Seattle at plus-125 on Bet365, a number Lindy called too good given how far his stuff has come since a trade earlier this season. May struggled through his walk issues in April, but Lindy has been backing him steadily since May as the control cleaned up, and he pointed to a Mariners offense that just got run over 22-0 in an unrelated Big Ten football blowout as a joking aside before circling back to the real case: Seattle's lineup is a strikeout-prone group even before facing a pitcher trending in the right direction. Dustin May (MIL) over his strikeout number at plus-125 (Bet365).
Jake McCarthy Closes The Card At Coors
The last play of the night is the one Lindy built toward all show: Jake McCarthy (COL) to hit a home run against Roki Sasaki and the Dodgers at Coors Field, priced at plus-882 on ProphetX and plus-850 on DraftKings. Lindy called that number too long for a hitter who loads up on loft, carries a .191 ISO on the season, and is facing a Sasaki splitter that hasn't been consistent at altitude — when that pitch isn't working, Lindy said, Sasaki turns into a batting-practice arm. McCarthy's 16.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season is low enough to keep him in the box, and Lindy said Coors Field in the heart of summer keeps putting this program in good home run spots. Jake McCarthy (COL) to hit a home run, Lindy's last play of the day.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | First-five run line | Minus-110, three-tenths of a unit |
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | Under his outs number | Minus-105 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | To hit a home run | No price cited on air; fourth straight night on the play |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Under his earned-runs number | Minus-110, bet five times running |
| Yankees-Orioles | Total over 9.5 | Half a unit, Lindy's heaviest play of the night |
| Cleveland Guardians | Run line | Plus-125, three-tenths of a unit |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | To hit a home run | Plus-600 |
| Dustin May (MIL) | Over his strikeout number | Plus-125 (Bet365) |
| Jake McCarthy (COL) | To hit a home run | Plus-850 to plus-882, last play of the night |
The through-line across all nine plays is the same test Lindy keeps naming out loud: price and probability, not the story. Three home run plays anchor the card, Crow-Armstrong against a shaky bullpen, McLain getting his first call of the season, and McCarthy closing it out at Coors, but the play he called his heaviest of the night, the Yankees-Orioles total, and the two others he backed with stated units, Skenes and the Guardians run line, are all games where he's isolating a specific weakness (a fading Baltimore bullpen, a lacking Pittsburgh pen, a thin Giants lineup) rather than betting the whole matchup.
What Lindy Passed On
Several spots got real airtime without becoming plays. Michael King (SD) against Robert Stock and the Mets drew a lean on the game total under 8.5 at even money, but Lindy explicitly said he leaves fence-sitting spots like this one off the card and reviews them after the fact rather than forcing a bet. He talked through the Marlins-Phillies total with Sandy Alcantara and Aaron Nola (PHI), leaning toward the over given Citizens Bank Park's hitting profile and Nola's home struggles against lefty power, but said flatly he "just can't find it yet" — no play. The Tampa Bay team-total ladder against Max Scherzer and a thin Toronto bullpen is still waiting on lines, as is a Gage Jump (ATH) strikeout ladder against a lefty-heavy Kansas City lineup. He flagged Kumar Rocker (TEX) strikeout price as too short at minus-115 without betting it, and he said outright he's staying away from the Angels-Astros game beyond a passing look at Ethan Pecko's home-run rate. None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Tonight's +EV Hits And Strikeout Unders
Lindy's card leans on home runs, outs, and earned runs, but OddsShopper's own +EV screen flagged real value on the under side of two of tonight's exact games he already covered: the Diamondbacks-Red Sox game behind Brandon Pfaadt, and the Cardinals-Reds game behind Matt McLain. Every number below is live off the board as of tonight.
| Player | Market | Best price | Fair implied odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +176 fair |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | Under 0.5 Hits | +115 (Bet365) | +105 fair |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +115 (Bet365) | +105 fair |
| Nick Sogard | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +172 fair |
| Caleb Durbin | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Fanatics) | +180 fair |
| Andruw Monasterio | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +132 fair |
| Dane Myers (CIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +180 (Bet365) | +166 fair |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +110 (Bet365) | +103 fair |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 (Fanatics) | +162 fair |
That board clusters entirely around the two games Lindy already had circled tonight: the Pfaadt game alone carries six of these nine names, confirmation that the market is pricing tonight's Diamondbacks-Red Sox matchup as tight the same way Lindy's earned-run under is betting it. The Reds-Cardinals game behind his McLain home run play shows real value going the other direction, with both lineups priced to go quiet — the kind of low-scoring backdrop where one loud swing stands out. That's the same de-vig scan running on the other side of the board from the hits-and-strikeouts table above: shop the number, de-vig it to a fair price, and only bet the gap that's actually there. Our +EV betting guide walks through that math if you want to build boards like this one yourself, and DraftKings' current offer — how to claim it is worth checking before you shop tonight's card, since it's the book carrying both Skenes's first-five number and McCarthy's home run price.
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