Live With Lindy: MLB Picks & Props Today (7/22)
The single biggest edge on Wednesday, July 22's MLB board is not a home run and not a side. As of the afternoon capture of the OddsShopper +EV board, it is a hitter the market has priced to go hitless: Nick Gonzales (PIT), whose total-hits Under 0.5 pays well over its fair number. That is exactly the kind of spot Eric "Lindy" Lindquist spent his 7/22 Live With Lindy research stream chasing, and it fits the day he described. This is a weird 17-game Wednesday: pitching projected so weakly that Lindy said on stream he was stunned by it, and with only 10 teams playing Thursday, every bullpen is stocked and starters are going to get yanked early. When the sides go quiet like this, the money moves to the prop streets. Below is Lindy's read of the slate, the OddsShopper +EV screen's best MLB props today, and how to price them yourself.
Nick Gonzales — one of the featured players on today's slate.
TL;DR
- The Slate Shape Is The Story. Wednesday runs 17 games, but only five games and 10 teams are on the card Thursday, so bullpens are fully available today. Expect short starts and a parade of relievers, which pushes the value out of moneylines and into props.
- The Day's Biggest Board Edge Is A Total-Hits Under. Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 0.5 hits is best-takeable +195 at Bet365 against a fair +157, a +14.8% edge and the widest gap on the OddsShopper +EV board.
- The Board Is Deep With Unders. Jared Triolo (PIT) Under 0.5 (+132, +11.5%), Josh Jung (TEX) Under 0.5 (+202, +9.4%), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT) Under 0.5 (+180, +9.4%) round out the top of it.
- Lindy's Own Fired Plays Live In The Props Too: an under on Gabriel Hughes (COL) strikeouts at Coors, an RBI prop on Daylen Lile (WAS) in the same thin-air game, and the San Francisco Giants moneyline as his heaviest side of the day.
- A Lean Is Not A Play. Lindy liked Logan Henderson (MIL) at his strikeout number but did not fire it, so it stays in the leans bucket, not the card.
- The Method Is The Point. Devig every prop, compare the takeable price to fair, and shop every book on the OddsShopper MLB props screen so you always take the best number.
Watch The Video
Lindy walks the full slate, the pick'em board, and the tools he uses in real time on the 7/22 stream: Watch on YouTube.
Why Wednesday's Board Rewards Props, Not Sides
Start with the slate math, because it changes how you read everything below. Wednesday carries 17 games, a couple of them doubleheaders, but the Thursday card is nearly empty: only five games and 10 teams play, with three four-game series still finishing and two new sets just starting. Lindy flagged this early, and it is the most useful non-obvious fact on the day. When almost no one plays tomorrow, there is no reason to protect a bullpen. Managers deploy their main relievers freely, which means starters get a shorter leash and hitters see three or four different arms instead of two.
That single fact is why the value lives in the prop streets today. Night-before moneylines and totals barely move in 2026 because the market is efficient on the sides, and Lindy said as much on stream: "a lot of our edges, obviously we find in the prop streets." A fully-rested bullpen behind a short starter is a prop story, not a side story. It suppresses the innings a starter throws, scrambles the hitter matchups late, and makes a clean "this bat gets two hits" outcome harder to string together. Hold onto that idea, because it is exactly what the board's total-hits Unders are pricing.
Lindy's Fired Plays: The Prop Streets In Action
Lindy did not force much on the sides, and that restraint is the read. His clearest fired plays all sit in the same low-projection, bullpen-heavy environment.
The one he built out most carefully is the under on Gabriel Hughes (COL) strikeout prop at Coors Field, the most run-friendly park in baseball. Hughes is a small-sample rookie with no swing-and-miss to speak of against left-handed bats, and Washington answered by loading lefties at the top of its order. A pitcher who cannot miss lefty bats, in front of a lefty-loaded lineup, in a park where balls carry, is a strikeout total begging for the under. That read is matchup-first, not a hunch, and it becomes the template for how to attack these weak-pitching spots.
The same Coors game gave Lindy his RBI angle: an over on Daylen Lile (WAS) RBI prop, since his spot in the order sits behind on-base machines like C.J. Abrams (WAS) and James Wood (WAS). Coors does something no other park does, as Lindy put it: outfielders have to play so deep that singles score runners from second far more often, so RBI props on hitters batting behind traffic get a real boost. He was picky about the number, preferring to get in at the lower rung than reach for the bigger one, which is the correct instinct on any RBI prop.
On the sides, his heaviest play was the San Francisco Giants moneyline against Seth Lugo (KC) and the Royals, a night-before number he grabbed well before it steamed toward the favorite. And to be clear about the leans: Lindy liked Logan Henderson (MIL) at five and a half strikeouts and talked himself in and out of it on air, but he did not fire it. That stays a lean, not a play.
The OddsShopper +EV Board: Where The Value Actually Is
Here is where Lindy's philosophy meets the data. Run the same Wednesday slate through the OddsShopper +EV odds screen, and the tool surfaces a cluster of total-hits Unders priced longer than their fair, no-vig number. This is the screen doing the exact work Lindy preaches: it prices the true odds on every book and flags the bets paying you more than their real chance. Every price below is the best takeable number against the market's own devigged fair price (lines as of 2026-07-22T20:09:58Z).
| Player, Total Hits | Best takeable | Fair (no-vig) | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales Under 0.5 | +195 (Bet365) | +157 | +14.8% |
| Jared Triolo Under 0.5 | +132 (Bet365) | +108 | +11.5% |
| Josh Jung Under 0.5 | +202 (Bet365) | +176 | +9.4% |
| Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 | +180 (Bet365) | +156 | +9.4% |
| Ali Sánchez Under 0.5 | +100 (Bet365) | -119 | +8.7% |
| Tristan Peters Under 0.5 | +165 (Bet365) | +145 | +8.2% |
| Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 | +175 (Bet365) | +156 | +7.4% |
| Manny Machado Under 0.5 | +190 (Bet365) | +170 | +7.4% |
| Brooks Lee Under 0.5 | +185 (Bet365) | +166 | +7.1% |
| Braden Montgomery Under 0.5 | +190 (Bet365) | +171 | +7.0% |
| Luis Campusano Under 0.5 | +145 (BetMGM) | +129 | +7.0% |
| Petey Halpin Under 0.5 | +110 (Bet365) | -103 | +6.5% |
The row I keep coming back to is the top one. Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 0.5 hits is best-takeable +195 at Bet365 while the market's own no-vig fair number is +157, and that four-point-plus gap is the entire +14.8% edge, the biggest on the board. In plain terms, Bet365 is paying you a plus-money price on a hitter going hitless that the honest market prices meaningfully shorter. This is the cleanest example of the day's thesis: on a slate where short starts and a fresh bullpen make stringing a hit together harder, the Unders are where the mispricing pools, and the screen finds it faster than you can.
Notice what the board is not: it is not a list of longshot home runs. Eleven of these 12 best prices come from a single book, Bet365, which is exactly why line shopping matters. Two rows near the bottom make the point in miniature. Their minus-money fair price (-119 and -103) means the true market thinks the Under is more likely than not, yet Bet365 still hangs a plus-money number (+100 and +110). Bet365 is out of step with fair there, and the difference is free value on an identical bet if you know where to look.
Worked Example: Pricing The Day's Best Edge
Take the top-graded side, Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 0.5 hits, and convert both prices to implied probability using the real board numbers. Our how to remove the vig explainer walks the full math, and how to find +EV bets covers the value loop.
- Best takeable Under +195 → 100 / (195 + 100) = 33.9% break-even
- Fair (no-vig) Under +157 → 100 / (157 + 100) = 38.9% true chance
The lesson is in the gap. Bet365 asks you to be right just 33.9% of the time to break even, while the market's own no-vig number says Gonzales goes hitless about 38.9% of the time. You are being paid for a worse outcome than the fair price describes, and running that five-point probability edge through the +195 payout is where the +14.8% return-on-stake comes from. The loop never changes: devig the posted price to find fair, then bet only when the number you can actually take beats it. Do that across a board and the small edges compound, which is the CLV-first habit Lindy hammers every stream.
The Tools That Do The Work
Everything above came from one screen, and it is worth naming how. The OddsShopper +EV odds screen lines up every major book's price on a market, prices the true no-vig number, and ranks the board by edge, so a spot like Gonzales +195 does not stay hidden at one book while you check the others by hand. That gap is the difference between reading a board and guessing at one.
Lindy leaned on a second tool on stream: the OddsShopper Liquidity Tool, which flags where sharp money is moving, calling it "so easy to understand a lot of sharp money going out." Pair it with the +EV screen and you get both halves of a prop read: where the fair number is, and which way the sharp side is leaning.
And when the board's best price sits at a book you are not on, that is a sign-up moment, not a shrug. Eleven of today's 12 best prices sit at Bet365, and BetMGM hangs the lone exception, the top Luis Campusano (SD) number, so you can check the current sign-up offer at BetMGM to get on a book carrying today's value. If you cash a free bet from any welcome offer, the free bet converter helps you lock in cash value from it instead of hoping a one-shot longshot lands. New to the terms behind any of this? The MLB betting terms glossary covers them.
A Few Realities Before You Bet These Props
- Under 0.5 Hits Is High Variance. One bloop single loses the whole thing. These are +EV processes over a large sample, never single-game certainties, so size each to your edge and bankroll.
- Lineups And Weather Move The Number. A hitter dropped in the order or a park with wind out changes the read. Recheck the posted lineup for each game's window before you fire, especially the Coors game.
- Shop Every Book. Eleven of today's 12 best prices are at one book. The same Under can be a dime cheaper elsewhere, and that gap is free value on an identical bet.
- A Lean Is Not A Play. Lindy modeled the discipline: he liked Logan Henderson's strikeout number and passed. Not every edge you like clears the bar to bet.
- Play Responsibly. Sports betting is for adults 21+ in regulated markets where it is legal. Bet within your means and never chase losses.
New to OddsShopper? It scans every major sportsbook, prices the true no-vig odds, and flags the bets paying more than their fair chance, the exact devig-and-shop work this recap walks through, done across every book in seconds. Code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro: Claim 50% off OS Pro.
FAQ
What is Live With Lindy? It is Eric "Lindy" Lindquist's daily OddsShopper MLB research stream, where he works the full board in real time — props, sides, and the tools he prices them with. The 7/22 edition focused on a weak-pitching, bullpen-heavy Wednesday and the prop value it created.
What are the best MLB props today, July 22? On the OddsShopper +EV board, the widest edge is Nick Gonzales (PIT) Under 0.5 hits at +195 (Bet365) against a fair +157, a +14.8% edge. Jared Triolo (PIT) Under 0.5 (+132, +11.5%), Josh Jung (TEX) Under 0.5 (+202, +9.4%), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT) Under 0.5 (+180, +9.4%) are next. Devig and shop each before you bet.
Why are so many of today's edges total-hits Unders? Because the slate shape rewards them. With only 10 teams playing Thursday, bullpens are fully available today, so starters get short leashes and hitters face a rotation of fresh relievers — a setup that makes stringing a hit together harder and pushes the mispricing to the Under side.
Does the promo code work on OddsShopper Pro? Yes. Code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro, which unlocks the deeper +EV screen, the Liquidity Tool, and full line-shopping across every major book.
Bottom Line
If you take one habit from this board, make it the one hiding in those two bottom rows. Both had a minus-money fair price — the honest market already leaned Under — and yet one book, Bet365, was still paying plus money on the same bet. That is the entire edge in a sentence: the value is not in guessing whether a hitter goes 0-for-4, it is in catching the one book whose price has drifted off the fair number. Nick Gonzales at +195 against a +157 fair is the loudest version of it, but the quiet plus-money-over-minus-money spots are where a disciplined bettor quietly prints. Devig every number, shop every book, and let the price — not the name — decide the bet, exactly the way Lindy worked this slate on stream.
Read today's board the right way. OddsShopper lines up every book's MLB prop price on the +EV odds screen and flags where the number beats the true odds, so you shop the best price instead of guessing. Code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off OddsShopper Pro: Claim 50% off OS Pro. Bet responsibly, 21+ where legal.
