Who scores a touchdown in Dolphins-Raiders, and where is the price right? Kalshi's most likely scorer is Ashton Jeanty at 51¢ to score at least once, and the best sportsbook wants -122 for the same touchdown (WynnBET, 55¢ implied). The gap worth acting on runs the exchange's way: Ashton Jeanty is 51¢ on Kalshi against 55¢ implied at the best book, 4 cents apart. Inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff and a name on that list moves every price on this page. The full board, the first-touchdown market and the designations are below.
Kalshi prices as of Sunday, September 13, 2026, 10:20 a.m. ET; sportsbook prices pulled 3:31 p.m. ET from OddsShopper's live odds feed.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code TDSCORE20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Board: Every Likely Scorer, Two Prices
Who scored: Ashton Jeanty (51¢ Sunday morning), Malik Willis (22¢ Sunday morning), Jack Bech (10¢ Sunday morning). Those 1+ contracts paid $1; every other name on the board settled at $0. The Sunday-morning price sits next to each scorer so the board above can be read as a graded card.
Kalshi's ask is the market's probability in cents; Gap is the best US sportsbook's implied price minus that ask, so a positive gap means Kalshi is cheaper. Sims columns are the Stokastic Sims' projected DraftKings points and field ownership. The busiest contract in the game is Mike Washington Jr., 168,526 contracts in the last 24 hours.
| Player | Team | Kalshi 1+ (bid / ask) | Best sportsbook | Implied | Gap | Sims proj. | Sims own. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 50¢ / 51¢ | -122 (WynnBET) | 55¢ | +4 | 17.9 | 17% |
| De'Von Achane | MIA | 43¢ / 44¢ | +125 (Fanatics) | 44¢ | 0 | 19.2 | 15% |
| Michael Mayer | LV | 26¢ / 27¢ | +255 (Fanatics) | 28¢ | +1 | 10.7 | 25% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 25¢ / 26¢ | +255 (Bet365) | 28¢ | +2 | 11.5 | 12% |
| Malik Willis | MIA | 21¢ / 22¢ | +325 (Fanatics) | 24¢ | +2 | 16.9 | 1% |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 19¢ / 20¢ | +380 (Fanatics) | 21¢ | +1 | 6.4 | 0% |
| Malik Washington | MIA | 18¢ / 19¢ | +420 (Fanatics) | 19¢ | 0 | 7.6 | 1% |
| Jalen Nailor | LV | 14¢ / 17¢ | +380 (Fanatics) | 21¢ | +4 | 8.9 | 4% |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | 14¢ / 15¢ | +525 (Fanatics) | 16¢ | +1 | 6.5 | 2% |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA | 13¢ / 14¢ | +525 (Fanatics) | 16¢ | +2 | 6.6 | 2% |
| MIA Dolphins D/ST | LV | 11¢ / 14¢ | — | — | — | — | — |
| LV Raiders D/ST | LV | 12¢ / 13¢ | — | — | — | — | — |
New to DraftKings? New users can Spend $5+, Get $200 in Bonuses ($50 in Bonus Bets every 7 days for 21 days).
Kalshi Or The Book
Where Kalshi sells the touchdown cheaper than the best book: Ashton Jeanty (51¢ vs 55¢ at WynnBET), Jalen Nailor (17¢ vs 21¢ at Fanatics), Tre Tucker (26¢ vs 28¢ at Bet365), Malik Willis (22¢ vs 24¢ at Fanatics) and Michael Mayer (27¢ vs 28¢ at Fanatics).
Kalshi is at least as cheap as the best book on every name; De'Von Achane, Mike Washington Jr. and Malik Washington are the only prices that tie.
The reason the two sides disagree is fees and shape, not information. A sportsbook builds its margin into every anytime price; Kalshi's contract trades between users with a taker fee on top, so on a favorite the exchange usually shows the lower number and on a longshot the book sometimes does. Shop both before you take either.
First Touchdown
Settled: Jack Bech scored the first touchdown. The contract paid $1; it traded at 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask on Sunday morning. Every other first-TD contract in the game settled at $0.
Kalshi's first-touchdown market is thinner than the anytime board and the spreads are wider, so read the ask as the price you pay, not a probability. Ashton Jeanty leads it at 18¢. First-touchdown searches spike at kickoff and again the moment someone scores; this table is what the market thought before the first snap.
| Player | Kalshi first TD (bid / ask) | 24h contracts | Best sportsbook first TD | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 16¢ / 18¢ | 2,258 | +425 (PointsBet) | 19¢ | +1 |
| De'Von Achane | 11¢ / 12¢ | 3,011 | +600 (Circa) | 14¢ | +2 |
| Michael Mayer | 6¢ / 7¢ | 4,118 | +1200 (Caesars) | 8¢ | +1 |
| Tre Tucker | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1,051 | +1100 (OnyxOdds) | 8¢ | +1 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 4¢ / 5¢ | 1,485 | +1600 (HardRock) | 6¢ | +1 |
| Malik Willis | 4¢ / 5¢ | 41,512 | +1400 (Circa) | 7¢ | +2 |
| Jalen Nailor | 4¢ / 5¢ | 4,127 | +1600 (FanDuel) | 6¢ | +1 |
| Malik Washington | 3¢ / 4¢ | 295 | +2100 (Caesars) | 5¢ | +1 |
Designations
Out or doubtful: Brock Bowers (LV TE), Storm Duck (MIA CB) and Darrell Baker Jr. (MIA CB). Questionable: no one. Designations as carried by ESPN's game page at 8:47 a.m. ET; injured reserve not listed. Inactives post 90 minutes before kickoff, and a name on this list moves every price above it.
My Take
If I had to hold one contract from this board it is Ashton Jeanty on Kalshi at 51¢. The best sportsbook prices the same touchdown at 55¢ implied, so the exchange is the cheaper door by 4 cents, and the Sims give him 17.9 DraftKings points at 17% projected ownership, which is a real role, not a hope. The case against is the same as always with touchdown props: one goal-line carry to someone else and the contract is worth nothing. Size it like a lottery ticket with a good number, not a lock.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Puck Playz on Tails likes Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Total Passing Touchdowns (+142). Bet now
- LayTheHouseRM on Tails (#9 on the NFL Most Profit leaderboard) likes Michael Mayer Over 39.5 Total Receiving Yards (-126). Bet now
- TheFantasyGrind on Tails likes Tre Tucker Over 749.5 Total Receiving Yards (+250).
More from these experts on Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders. TheFantasyGrind posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Following the league day to day? The NFL training camp report tracks every team's news that moves these boards, and the live NFL odds screen carries every market for this game beyond touchdowns.
More Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers · Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts · Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans · Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers · Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars · Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants · Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings · New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans.
Odds move quickly and every number here is stamped above. Shop live prices on OddsShopper.
More on this: Broncos Vs Chiefs Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books · Cardinals Vs Chargers Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books · Ravens Vs Colts Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books · Cowboys Vs Giants Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books · Packers Vs Vikings Anytime TD Odds: Kalshi Vs The Books
