MLB Home Run Parlays Today: 3 Lotto Tickets, One +27631 Shot
Some Fridays you bet to grind out a unit. This is not one of those Fridays. I went looking for three MLB home run parlays that, if they hit, turn a coffee-money stake into jet-ski money, and the board obliged. Are these likely? No. That is the whole point of a lotto ticket. But every leg is a real OddsShopper-priced number, and one of them has an actual edge baked in. Let's go shopping for a boat.
In Summary
- The Moonshot: Sal Stewart, Kevin McGonigle and Juan Soto all to go deep, a three-leg parlay at +27631. A $15 ticket nets $4,144.68.
- The Boosted Builder: Ketel Marte and Alec Bohm to homer, juiced 5% by the OddsShopper Boost Builder to +4357. A $25 ticket pays $1,114.41.
- The two-Kyle Special: Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Stowers to homer at +1990, with a real Portfolio EV edge on Schwarber. An $18.73 ticket returns $391.53.
- Every combined price below is the best number across 100+ books from the OddsShopper Parlay Builder, with the second ticket boosted another 5% by the Boost Builder.
| Parlay | Legs | Combined Price | $ Stake → Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moonshot | Stewart +750 / McGonigle +625 / Soto +350 | +27631 | $15 bonus bet → $4,144.68 |
| Boosted Builder | Marte +412 / Bohm +770 (5% boost) | +4357 | $25 → $1,114.41 |
| Two-Kyle | Schwarber / Stowers | +1990 | $18.73 → $391.53 |
Parlay 1 was placed with bonus bets, so $4,144.68 is the net return (bonus-bet stakes are not given back). Parlays 2 and 3 are cash tickets, so those figures are the total payout with the stake included.
Parlay 1: The +27631 Moonshot (A.k.a. The Jet Ski Fund)
Three swings, one obscene number. This is the "if it hits I'm changing my name and moving to the coast" ticket.
- Sal Stewart, Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: 1+ home run at +750
- Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros: 1+ home run at +625
- Juan Soto, New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: 1+ home run at +350
Multiply the three together and you get exactly +27631. On $15 of bonus bets that is a $4,144.68 profit, which is, I checked, a used jet ski with money left for the trailer. Soto is the shortest price of the trio at +350, the safest leg on a wild ticket, while Stewart at +750 and McGonigle at +625 are the longshot legs that crank the combined number into the stratosphere. Nobody's firing this to actually win it. The play is $15 to dream about four grand, which is a fair trade on a Friday.
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Parlay 2: The Boosted +4357 Builder
A little more grounded, a little more juice. Two bats, then the OddsShopper Boost Builder stapled an extra 5% on top.
- Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays: 1+ home run at +412
- Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: 1+ home run at +770
The two legs priced out at +4150 on their own. The Boost Builder bumped it 5% to +4357, so a $25 ticket comes back at $1,114.41. Marte is the switch-hitting bat that gets this started at +412, and Bohm at +770 is the longshot leg that pays for the boat upgrade. The 5% Boost Builder is what nudged the price from +4150 to +4357 without touching either leg.
Parlay 3: The Two-Kyle Special, With A Real Edge
Two Kyles, one ticket, and this is the one with actual math behind it. Note the edge on Schwarber.
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: 1+ home run
- Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals: 1+ home run
Best price across the board is +1990 at DraftKings, so $18.73 returns $391.53. That is the cheap-thrill ticket: short enough to sweat seriously, long enough to matter.
The reason Schwarber leads it is not vibes. OddsShopper's Portfolio EV grades his to-homer side at +290 against a true, de-vigged price of +287, an edge of +0.8% with the market holding just 1.5%. The no-homer side, by contrast, sits 2.3% against you. When the tool tells you the cheap side of a coin is the side the books shaded wrong, you take it.
How We Got Here: The Math Behind The Number
Three things turn home run props into a parlay worth a screenshot, and all three come from putting OddsShopper to work on the legs I picked:
- The Price Is The Edge. Portfolio EV de-vigs every book to a true number, then shows you the gap. Schwarber's +290 against a +287 true line is small in isolation, but a documented edge on a leg, like his +0.8%, is what separates a ticket worth building from a blind heave the book wants you to take.
- Line Shopping Is Not Optional On Longshots. The moonshot came back +27631 at bet365. The same three legs at the worst book on the Parlay Builder priced at roughly +20618. On $15 that is about $1,050 of profit you would have set on fire by not shopping, on a ticket you already wanted. The bigger the parlay, the more the gaps compound.
- Boosts Are Found Money. The 5% Boost Builder on Parlay 2 cost nothing and lifted +4150 to +4357. Stack a boost on a number you already liked and the math only moves your way.
That is the difference between firing a parlay blind and building one. You are not guessing which book is best on five different legs in five different tabs. Build it once, and the tool prices it everywhere.
The Honest Part
These are home run parlays. They are designed to lose most nights, and they will. A single bomb that doesn't land kills the whole ticket. So size them like the lottery tickets they are: small money you are fine never seeing again, not the rent. The fun is real and the edge on Schwarber is real, but a longshot is still a longshot regardless of how good the legs look. Bet the entertainment, keep the jet ski in the dream column until it clears.
If you only fire one, make it the two-Kyle at +1990. It is the most live, it has the Portfolio EV edge, and $18.73 to return $391 is the kind of math that makes the late games matter.
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