St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs home run picks: this board was built for the St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs game on August 14, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
The St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs board opens with Seiya Suzuki at +500 to homer. Every priced bat for tonight is below, with the best book on each.
Home Run Board For This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 34 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 37 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +641 | NoVig | 13.5% | 35 |
| Alex Bregman (CHC) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 36 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 36 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +675 | BetMGM 🎁 | 12.9% | 30 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 36 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +700 | Unibet | 12.5% | 35 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Wrigley Field: park index 117.3 · wind 5 mph.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — punishes sliders, and that is 28% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +431 · NoVig +400
- Alec Burleson (STL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 50% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +627 · NoVig +641
- Jordan Walker (STL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +650 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +567
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +490 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +488
- Michael Busch (CHC) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +627 · NoVig +700
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1000 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +950 · ProphetX +960 · NoVig +953
- Iván Herrera (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +1300 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
- Ian Happ (CHC) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +675 at BetMGM | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +440 · NoVig +567
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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