Ben Rice (+394) and Trent Grisham (+450) lead tonight's New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice (NYY) | +394 | BookMaker | 20.2% | 35 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | +450 | Unibet | 18.2% | 34 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 29 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) | +550 | Fanatics | 15.4% | 36 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +559 | ProphetX | 15.2% | 35 |
| Spencer Jones (NYY) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 34 |
| Brandon Valenzuela (TOR) | +600 | BetMGM 🎁 | 14.3% | 3 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rogers Centre: park index 97.8 · wind 2 mph.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +368 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +368 · NoVig +335
- George Springer (TOR) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 60% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +506
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +413
- Spencer Jones (NYY) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +525
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 32% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +456
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +456
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 60% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +525
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +506
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- MassMoneyline on Tails likes Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+124). Bet now
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+435). Bet now → DraftKings
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (+138). Bet now
More from these experts on New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays. JediModi, MassMoneyline post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
