Willson Contreras (+600) and Wilyer Abreu (+600) lead tonight's Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 34 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +600 | Fanatics | 14.3% | 33 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +750 | Fanatics | 11.8% | 34 |
| Brandon Lowe (PIT) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 32 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) | +763 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 11.6% | 32 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +775 | BetMGM 🎁 | 11.4% | 30 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | +857 | Polymarket 🎁 | 10.4% | 33 |
| Rafael Flores (PIT) | +900 | HardRock | 10.0% | 6 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 12:55 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at PNC Park: park index 90.5 · wind 2 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +590
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 52% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +730 at FanDuel | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +669
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +857 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +669
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +525
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +725 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +725 · NoVig +669
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +809
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1100 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +911 · NoVig +900
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1029 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +1029 · NoVig +809
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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