Shohei Ohtani at +337 headlines the Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +337 | Polymarket 🎁 | 22.9% | 36 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +425 | Bet365 | 19.0% | 8 |
| Andy Pages (LAD) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 35 |
| Teoscar Hernández (LAD) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 37 |
| Gary Sánchez (MIL) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 20 |
| Tommy Edman (LAD) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 34 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium: park index 118.2 · wind 3 mph.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 52% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +337 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +304 · NoVig +317
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +584 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +488
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +471
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 33% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +441
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1000 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +882 · NoVig +809
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 52% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +614
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +630 at DraftKings | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +614
- William Contreras (MIL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Gubabets on Tails (#9 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes these plays:
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#5 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Total Strikeouts (+113). Bet now
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes these plays:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Roki Sasaki Under 6 Total Strikeouts.
- Rebel Mickie on Tails (#3 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110). Bet now
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Christian Yelich 0 Total Stolen Bases (+800).
More from these experts on Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers. Cobi O'Connell, Gubabets, MisterMarkot, PrizePick Champions , Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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