Matt Olson (+358) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (+429) lead tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +358 | Polymarket 🎁 | 21.8% | 37 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 37 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 36 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 34 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 35 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 29 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 33 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 35 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 12:55 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 113.5 · wind 4 mph.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — 91° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +351 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +351 · Polymarket +337 · ProphetX +338 · NoVig +344
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 91° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +413
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — 91° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +456 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +441 · NoVig +441
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — 91° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +456
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — 91° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +641
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 91° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +559 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +559 · NoVig +545
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — 91° air · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +786 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +809
- Tim Tawa (AZ) — 91° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1000 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
