Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros home run picks: this board was built for the Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros game on August 14, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
Yordan Alvarez (+304) and Cal Raleigh (+429) lead tonight's Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board For This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | +304 | ProphetX | 24.8% | 36 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 30 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 35 |
| Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 27 |
| Colt Emerson (SEA) | +550 | PointsBet | 15.4% | 1 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | +584 | Polymarket 🎁 | 14.6% | 35 |
| Isaac Paredes (HOU) | +620 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.9% | 35 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 36 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Daikin Park: park index 115.0 · wind 7 mph.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — 11% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 28% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +304 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +296 · Polymarket +301 · ProphetX +304 · NoVig +300
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — 45% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +425 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +376
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +426
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · punishes sliders, and that is 30% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +490 · NoVig +456
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +598 · NoVig +567
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — 27% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +641
- Daulton Varsho (HOU) — 30% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +657 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +641
- Taylor Trammell (HOU) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +637 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +545
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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