Fernando Tatis Jr. (+579) and Jackson Merrill (+625) lead tonight's San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians home run prices — the full board and the best number on each swing is below.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 36 |
| Chase DeLauter (CLE) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 35 |
| Jose Ramirez (CHW) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 36 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +700 | Fanatics | 12.5% | 36 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (CIN) | +700 | Bet365 | 12.5% | 33 |
| Ty France (SD) | +719 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.2% | 35 |
| Jo Adell (CLE) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 35 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
Which of these prices is actually +EV?OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 01:05 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Progressive Field: park index 96.4 · wind 3 mph.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 35% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +545
- Jo Adell (CLE) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +755 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +755 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +637 · NoVig +590
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes sliders, and that is 38% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Fanatics | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +614
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +590
- José Ramírez (CLE) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +525
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +850 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +657 · NoVig +669
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +617 · NoVig +641
- Angel Genao (CLE) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1200 at Fanatics | exchanges: NoVig +733
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Steven Kwan Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2242). Bet now → Kalshi
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Jackson Merrill Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+600). Bet now → Fanatics
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Steven Kwan Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+2242). Bet now → Kalshi
More from these experts on San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians. JediModi posts full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. OddsShopper reads the sharp books that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays — no hours of research required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results. Try OS Pro free for 7 days; code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
