Junior Caminero at +355 headlines the Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays home run board — 8 bats priced to go deep tonight, and the board below shows the book paying the most on each.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | +355 | NoVig | 22.0% | 30 |
| Víctor Víctor Mesa (MIA) | +380 | Caesars | 20.8% | 1 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +398 | Kalshi | 20.1% | 31 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +500 | Polymarket 🎁 | 16.7% | 25 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | +500 | BetMGM 🎁 | 16.7% | 4 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BAL) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 30 |
| Coby Mayo (BAL) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 28 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 30 |
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The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 14, 2026 · 12:55 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Tropicana Field: park index 120.0 · roof/indoors — weather neutral.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +398 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +387 · NoVig +376
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +441
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +525
- Christian Franklin (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1300 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +900
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence B)
- books: best +1000 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +857 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
- Carlos Narváez (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +900 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +794 · NoVig +852
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +725 at BetMGM
- Leody Taveras (BAL) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1000 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +882 · NoVig +953
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Junior Caminero Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+388). Bet now → DraftKings
- JediModi on Tails (#1 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+425). Bet now → TheScore
More from these experts on Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays. Cobi O'Connell, JediModi post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves · Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
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