Kyle Schwarber at +285 headlined the Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Gabriel Rincones Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +285 | NoVig | 26.0% | 35 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +429 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 18.9% | 34 |
| Pete Alonso (BAL) | +475 | Bet365 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Gabriel Rincones Jr. (PHI) | +500 | BetOnline | 16.7% | 1 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 34 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) | +580 | BookMaker | 14.7% | 31 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | +660 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.2% | 34 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 32 |
New to DraftKings? New users can Bet $5+, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 2, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Oriole Park at Camden Yards: park index 105.5 · wind 14 mph.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) — 15% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 89° air · punishes sliders, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence A)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +426
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +270 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +252 · Polymarket +233 · ProphetX +255 · NoVig +270
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — 89° air · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 32% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +441 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +441
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) — 29% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 89° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +560 at FanDuel | exchanges: ProphetX +550 · NoVig +525
- Taylor Ward (BAL) — 14% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 89° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +950 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +676 · NoVig +700
- Trea Turner (PHI) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 10 mph · 89° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +800 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +625 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +627 · NoVig +614
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — 89° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +525
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — 89° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +650 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +617 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- ShanderBets on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+5012). Bet now
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+850). Bet now → Bet365
- Sam Smith on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+5363). Bet now → Bet365
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails (#5 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+3600). Bet now → DraftKings
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- Bet Small Win Big on Tails (#4 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes 2-leg parlay on this game (+1130). Bet now → DraftKings
- FullProofSportsBetting on Tails likes Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-130). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes these plays:
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Baltimore Orioles +1.5 Run Line (-135). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-140). Bet now
More from these experts on Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles. Bet Small Win Big , CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP, FullProofSportsBetting, Rebel Mickie, ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
