Kazuma Okamoto at +400 headlined the St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays home run board — every priced bat is below, with the book that paid the most on each.
On the board for St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays: Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Daulton Varsho, Jimmy Crooks are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +400 | Bet365 | 20.0% | 32 |
| George Springer (TOR) | +525 | NoVig | 16.0% | 33 |
| Jordan Walker (STL) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 26 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | +600 | Unibet | 14.3% | 32 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | +652 | Underdog 🎁 | 13.3% | 31 |
| Jimmy Crooks (STL) | +683 | Pick6 | 12.8% | 1 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +700 | NoVig | 12.5% | 32 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 32 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated July 31, 2026 · 02:26 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rogers Centre: park index 116.8 · wind 4 mph.
- George Springer (TOR) — punishes sliders, and that is 36% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +525 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +480 · NoVig +525
- Jordan Walker (STL) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +506 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +451 · NoVig +506
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +400 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +372 · NoVig +400
- Alec Burleson (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +545
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 41% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +770 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +657 · NoVig +770
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +700 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +608 · NoVig +700
- Daulton Varsho (TOR) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +567
- Iván Herrera (STL) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +809 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +706 · NoVig +809
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
