With the NFL drawing the national spotlight tonight, Adam Silver hasn’t scheduled much NBA action this evening. That said, three West Coast games are set to tip off after 10 p.m. ET. Bettors looking for a solid return from tonight’s card should target the following NBA player props — or check out OddsShopper’s tools — including the new player prop model — for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 17
Anfernee Simons O/U 3.5 Made 3’s
Fading Brooklyn’s perimeter defense has been profitable. Shooting guards Zach LaVine and Kevin Huerter have cashed ladder bets for this column when facing the Nets already this season, and Anfernee Simons is next in line for a big night. The Nets have given up the second-most triples to shooting guards per game (4.54) and the third-most above-the-break 3’s (10.3).
With Damian Lillard back in the lineup, Simons spends most of his time at shooting guard. He also leads the Trail Blazers in above-the-break 3’s attempted (9.5) and made (3.5) per game. Simons has been hot from beyond the arc this season — he is averaging 3.9 made 3’s per game. Simons has gone over this number in four of his last five outings as well.
Regression will come for Simons eventually, but probably not against the Brooklyn Nets. Their perimeter defense has played too poorly to not back a hot 3-point shooter like Simons against them. Bettors should avoid laddering this play since the standard prop total already sits at a full four makes.
Best NBA Player Prop: Anfernee Simons OVER 3.5 Made 3’s (+110 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
Tre Jones O/U 11.5 Points
Neither the Sacramento Kings nor the San Antonio Spurs have defended the paint well this season. The teams rank 28th (54.2) and 29th (54.5) in points allowed in the paint per game, respectively. But opposing centers haven’t been doing the damage — the Spurs have only allowed the ninth-most points to centers, while the Kings have allowed the 11th-fewest.
Point guards who can get into the paint have toasted the Kings. They have given up the seventh-most points per game to point guards (25.9). Recent matchups illustrate their struggles. Brooklyn’s Edmond Sumner scored 14 points, all but three of which came from the charity stripe or at the rim. Golden State’s Stephen Curry scored 27 points, 12 of which came from the stripe or at the rim. And even the Lakers’ Russell Westbrook scored 21 points, nine of which came from the stripe or at the rim.
Tre Jones fits this profile perfectly. He leads the Spurs in drives into the paint per game (11), off which he has averaged a solid 5.4 points. Jones is averaging 11.6 points per game this season and is in a great buy-low spot after his brief appearance against Portland following a return from injury.
Best NBA Player Prop: Tre Jones OVER 11.5 Points (+100 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
Marvin Bagley III O/U 7.5 Rebounds
The Detroit Pistons just lost their center, Isaiah Stewart, for a few weeks with a toe sprain. Stewart had been leading the team in rebounds per game (9.3) and rebound rate (18.1%), so the Pistons will need to get their production on the glass from somewhere else. Although rookie Jalen Duren has been effective on the boards, look for veteran Marvin Bagley III to step up.
Bagley only just got back from injury two games ago. He has since averaged a lowly 4.5 rebounds per game, but he averaged 6.8 per game as a Piston last year — and he recorded those numbers alongside Stewart. He averaged 8.3 rebounds per game when Stewart missed three straight games that season. Bagley finished last year with a respectable 13.6% rebound rate as a Piston.
The matchup should benefit Bagley as well. The Los Angeles Clippers will play their third game in four days tonight. They have already listed Paul George as questionable and Luke Kennard as doubtful, so expect less accurate shooters to take plenty of shots. Fatigue could also keep their aging veterans from crashing the boards as aggressively. Further, Bagley grabbed 11 boards against the Clippers as a King and eight as a Piston last season. He has come down with at least eight boards in four of his last five matchups against them.
Best NBA Player Prop: Marvin Bagley OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
