Week 4 brings an exciting matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles, who both sit at the top of their divisions.
There were definitely some people who believed in the Eagles coming into the season, but nobody expected Jacksonville to be 2-1 at this point.
Are these two teams good? Will this be a close game? Will Philadelphia get to 4-0 or can Jacksonville go into their home stadium and hand the Eagles their first loss?
There’s lot we’ll have to dive into for some answers.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Jaguars vs. Eagles Betting Odds
The Jaguars Have Shocked The League
It's still early in the season but the Jacksonville Jaguars have started 2-1 and sit atop the standings in the AFC South. They have exceeded expectations for the season and are one win away from matching their win total from last year. What's the reason for their newfound success?
The Jaguars are led by their defense. They are No. 1 in Rush Defense DVOA and No. 7 in Pass Defense DVOA. They are allowing 306.7 yards per game, which is the seventh-fewest yards allowed per game in the league. In 2021, they were 20th or worst in most defensive statistics. It was not helped by their terrible offense which is also much improved from a year ago.
Offensively Jacksonville is No. 2 in Pass DVOA and No. 18 in Rush DVOA. They are 12th in yards per play, which is up from 24th in 2021. The Jaguars pass the ball just 55.4% of the time, which is the ninth-lowest passing rate in the league and is helping their young quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for six touchdowns and just one interception thus far this season. The addition of receiver Christian Kirk has helped the young quarterback as Kirk has a 25.5% target share, is averaging 14.8 yards per reception and has three touchdowns this season. James Robinson has handled 56% of the team's rushing attempts and is averaging 4.8 yards per rush and scored three touchdowns.
All in all, the Jaguars are the seventh-highest team in the league in yards per game offensively. Defensively they are allowing the seventh-fewest yards allowed per game. They are a much better team fueled by this new coaching staff, the development of young players and key free agent signings. Whether their success will hold remains to be seen, but facing this Eagles team looks to be a good test for them.
Eagles Keep Flying
The Eagles are 3-0, and they also sit atop their division. They are looking good while the rest of their division is looking average at best.
The Eagles have the best passing attack in the league so far as they average 9.3 yards per pass attempt. They are fourth in Passing DVOA. Jalen Hurts has completed 67.3% of his passes for 916 yards, four touchdowns, and just one interception. A.J. Brown is his favorite target with a 33% target share, but Devonta Smith is not too far behind with a 24.5% target share too.
The Eagles are also pretty strong at running back as they are 10th in Rush DVOA. Miles Sanders accounts for 44% of the team's rushing attempts, while Jalen Hurts accounts for 36% of the team's rushing attempts. In addition, the Eagles' split between pass and run plays is nearly 50-50.
Defensively, the Eagles' pass DVOA is third in the league. Their run defense is suspect as their Rush Defense DOVA is 25th. They are allowing 5.4 yards per rush, which is the third highest.
The Eagles have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the best pass defenses in the league. Jalen Hurts is dynamic in that he has racked up over 900 passing yards AND 167 rushing yards in just three games. Their run defense is an issue and something to continue to monitor throughout the season, as they are allowing 5.4 yards per rushing attempt.
Jaguars vs. Eagles Prediction
On one hand, the Eagles are 3-0 and that sounds impressive. On the other hand, when one looks closer, they have only beat Detroit, Minnesota and Washington. Two of those teams may very well miss the playoffs and Minnesota is just a slightly above-average team.
Something similar could be said about the Jaguars. In Week 1, they lost to a Washington team that doesn't look good. They then beat Indianapolis which was a solid win, and they also blew out the Chargers but that was last week when the Chargers were dealing with a rash of injuries on their team.
This game will provide a good test for both teams. Jacksonville supposedly has this good defense and is facing an Eagles team that is the best at passing and Top 10 in running the ball. Philadelphia has a bad run defense and faces a team that has just the 24th-highest pass play percentage.
This game opened at Philadelphia -7 and has moved to Philadelphia -6.5 as of this writing. The total opened at 48 and is now down to 45.5. If you were wanting points or the under, hopefully, you beat the movement from the market.
As far as game lines go, according to OddsShopper's "Sharp Sportsbook Lines", the First Quarter Total Under 9.5 points (-102) is the best game lines bet.
Using the Stokastic Model for props, Trevor Lawrence UNDER 23.5 pass completions, Quez Watkins OVER 1.5 receptions, and Zach Pascal UNDER 1.5 receptions are some of the best props for this game.
Do not be surprised if this becomes a defensive slugfest with a slower tempo due to rushing.
Best NFL Bets: First Quarter Total UNDER 9.5 Points (-102), FanDuel; Eagles First Half Moneyline (-200), BetMGM; First Half Total OVER 22.5 Points (-110), Caesars
