Welcome to the 16th edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 16 games this week, games will be ranked from 16 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play. Nonetheless, onto our Week 16 NFL Confidence Pool picks and rankings.
Some early strategies in the NFL confidence pool picks center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any ** denotes an upset.
Week 16 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
16 Kansas City Chiefs (-425) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kudos to the Houston Texans for gutting out a close loss to the Chiefs, but don’t expect any letdown for Kansas City this weekend. Andy Reid is no dummy and certainly isn’t overlooking an old fox like Pete Carroll. Geno Smith has the NFL on notice that he isn’t an automatic loss on the schedule anymore. All of that leads up to a charged-up Chiefs team looking to play better heading into the postseason.
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15 Denver Broncos (-135) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are just so terrible right now and have been eliminated from reality this season. Baker Mayfield’s dream was short lived following that horrific performance in prime time. The Broncos are terrible in their own right, but most of that was because of their coaching and poor play with Russell Wilson. Their defense is still a machine and should be all over Mayfield. That’s the key difference here between Brett Rypien and Mayfield – protection. Denver will have time to at least try stuff, whereas the Rams are going to be so hard pressed to complete basic passes. Feel confident fading this Rams team against anyone in the NFL – except for maybe Arizona.
14 Buffalo Bills (-390) at Chicago Bears
Buffalo shares the same record as the Chiefs, but like Kansas City could play a little better. Despite battling the Dolphins and the elements, Buffalo moved on and is riding a five-game win streak. The Bears continue to lose players on both sides of the ball, and it’s only a matter of time before Justin Fields goes down – or is shut down. Chicago can’t stop anyone on the ground, and Buffalo just got a blueprint from Philadelphia for how to use a running quarterback. Josh Allen isn’t any stranger to cold weather and high winds, so don’t expect him or the Bills offense to do anything else but jam the ball down Chicago’s throat.
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-265) at Arizona Cardinals
This is truly it for Tom Brady. He just went through the worst year of his life with a major divorce and awful Crypto scam, not to mention how horrible things are on the field. Yet, somehow, his Buccaneers are still 6-8 atop the NFC South and have something to fight for this weekend. The Cardinals are done fighting. This is truly the definition of hopeless on the field. Arizona will be moving on from the majority – if not all – of their coaching staff next year and multiple players. Some people will have you believe that these guys on the Cardinals will fight extra hard because they are playing for jobs next year, but the reality is they have been doing that for weeks and the team still stinks. It’s more likely these Arizona coaches are working on their LinkedIn profile rather than a gameplan for the Bucs.
12 Baltimore Ravens (-345) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Let’s look at this game without Lamar Jackson – despite the strong possibility of him returning this weekend. The Ravens are exceptional in stopping the run, especially on third down. They ran into some problems against the Browns but had a lot of unforced errors in their loss – that is hard to sustain unless you are a bad team overall. The Ravens are not that, even with a backup quarterback. Atlanta moved to Desmond Ridder, but its heart and soul is still in the backfield. While the Falcons have a target or two on the outside, this team runs the ball to success. There’s also the matter of the NFC South still being open and the Falcons still alive. That means they won’t take ridiculous chances with Ridder to see what he can do and most likely will stick to what’s worked for them so far. The only problem is that stuff doesn’t work on the Ravens.
11 Tennessee Titans (-250) vs. Houston Texans
Houston is the worst team in the NFL by record but not by hustle. They have given max effort over the past two weeks despite coming up short in the win column. They will have extra motivation this weekend to hand the Titans another loss and possibly ending the tenure of Mike Vrabel – at least the final nail. The Titans are just too good and too desperate at this point. Much like the other conference, the southern division in the AFC is ugly yet still wide open for a couple of teams. Don’t expect the Titans to look as shaky as they did against the Chargers.
10 Cleveland Browns (-145) vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is not a great football team and continues to struggle with a -29 point differential. They are still tied with Carolina and Atlanta, alive in the division, but they have a ticking time bomb at quarterback. Alvin Kamara has to do everything just to give Andy Dalton a chance in the air, which might be trouble if Dalton needs to keep up with Deshaun Watson. Speaking of the latter, he’s becoming more comfortable both on the field and with the offense – eventually making this team a much more difficult opponent to beat. That could come as early as this weekend against Dennis Allen and his Saints team, where the head coach just struggles as a dog of less than 10 points. Nick Chubb should provide enough for Watson to lean a little more on some receivers down the field. Eventually the Saints just won’t be able to sustain drives to keep up with the Browns.
9 San Francisco 49ers (-335) vs. Washington Commanders
The legend continues. Brock Purdy has the nation going right now, but for how long remains the biggest question. This is still a new quarterback that was selected later in the draft for a reason. While that has yet to be revealed in this short stretch of success, it will be this year. Purdy is not leading the 49ers to a Super Bowl victory, so look at this week as the team’s biggest test on offense since Purdy took over the reins. Ron Rivera’s defense is intense and puts an immense amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They are more than fired up after being robbed last week, so expect a tight game in the Bay. The problem is Taylor Heinicke will be facing a better defense than what Purdy will see. That’s what keeps this from being an upset.
8 Los Angeles Chargers (-198) at Indianapolis Colts
If the Colts were a better team, then this would have upset written all over it. The reality is the Colts and their quarterback Matt Ryan are that bad. This is a career low for Ryan outside of what happened in the Super Bowl, and they aren’t good enough to just bounce back. The Chargers are looking for their third straight win and had some solid coaching at the end of last week’s victory over the Titans. Justin Herbert can throw three picks and fumble the ball twice, but no lead is safe for the Colts. Indianapolis doesn’t have the horses to keep up with Herbert nor do they have enough to protect Ryan.
Update: Ryan has been benched; Nick Foles will start for Indianapolis.
7 Detroit Lions (-135) at Carolina Panthers
The Lions are on a serious roll and have the playoffs in sight, but so do the Panthers. This game suddenly has meaning towards the end of the schedule as both teams need wins to stay alive. Detroit will look for their offense to continue to set the tone despite going against a tough Panthers defense against the run. Jared Goff isn’t historically great on the road, but Detroit is playing significantly better this year and clearly has a sense of confidence around their quarterback. Carolina comes off a disappointing home loss to the Steelers and will stick with Sam Darnold. Both teams look reinvigorated with good coaching, so Darnold turning over the football will be the major difference here and why Detroit escapes with a tight victory.
6 Minnesota Vikings (-170) vs. New York Giants
It’s not just the Vikings coming off a historic victory and begging for a letdown, but also this Giants team that’s just dangerous enough to get the upset. Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll have rebuilt this Giants offense with spare parts and Saquon Barkley. It’s fascinating to watch, as is their defense that’s causing havoc in opposing backfields. Minnesota can’t spot many teams 33 points, but a 10- to 13-point lead is of great concern. The Vikings give up points and make mistakes on offense — not a great recipe for a winning team. They are kind of like the rich-person’s version of the Giants. Both are indescribable at times in how they are succeeding, despite the Vikings having a few more household names on offense. The Vikings will not suffer a total letdown, but this game dropped due to a lack of confidence in Kirk Cousins.
5 Miami Dolphins (-200) vs. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers isn’t dead yet and neither are the Packers. Green Bay got a boost in the arm after outlasting the hapless Rams in prime time. Far from any “R-E-L-A-X” moment, Rodgers still spoke about how this team can rely on their current players to win some games, so long as they get strong performances from their defense. That is exactly what they should see against a Miami team that will be a little too tight this weekend, looking to bounce back from a close loss to the Bills. There is letdown from that and how reliant they have become on the passing game even when only playing from a short deficit. Tua Tagovailoa is playing better than Aaron and will make more plays, but from the expected wind to a newfound confidence in Green Bay, this will not be a walk on South Beach for the Dolphins. Miami is hoping to get a little healthier on their offensive line, which might be an issue with protection for their quarterback.
4 Cincinnati Bengals (-180) at New England Patriots*
The Patriots defense has to be livid. Thinking they had a chance to hold off the Raiders they not only allowed a game tying touchdown, but also watched their offense lateral away any shot at overtime. The Bengals look fantastic right now but face one of the biggest hurdles any good NFL team has in December – winning on the road against a good defense. It’s not easy in the NFL for a reason, and Joe Burrow will be tested – as will his offensive line. There is little doubt the Patriots offense will have to keep up with Burrow but expect a heavy dose of running back action to limit mistakes from Mac Jones. Winning six straight games is not easy but the Bengals are facing a bad matchup at tough time on the schedule. It will be an unpopular play in your pool this week because way too many people will be focusing on the Patriots offense, not their defense.
3 Dallas Cowboys (-200) vs. Philadelphia Eagles*
Another upset special has the team with the best record in the league doing what they have been doing all year – winning football games. Jalen Hurts will sit this one out and watch Gardner Minshew take over for the Eagles. Dak Prescott did the same thing earlier in the year, and Dallas won a bunch of games with their backup quarterback. Why? Because they relied heavily on their running backs, defense and their top two receiving targets. That sounds exactly lkike what the Eagles will do only they have a better defense and tandem of receivers. The Eagles offense isn’t going to change with Minshew on the field and they will continue to rely on their offensive line to create spacing. The gap between Hurts and the majority of the league is discernable, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles aren’t a good team without him. They just aren’t the best team in the NFL with the game’s most valuable player.
2 Pittsburgh Steelers (-145) vs. Las Vegas Raiders*
A win like that can change you. The Raiders come off one of the most improbable things you will ever see on a football field, especially since it was entirely unnecessary. The Steelers get Kenny Pickett back, which is good, just not great. Surely he is a better overall option than the other two arms, but he becomes more one-dimensional if he can’t get the passing game going. The Raiders are on the road but not laying points, so that changes a lot for this game. The Steelers defense is outstanding as they’ve become healthier, but this is where it’s an all-or-nothing game for them. If they can’t stop Derek Carr then their offense will be shut down, even by a Raiders team that’s given up a lot of points this year.
1 Jacksonville Jaguars (-105) at New York Jets*
Thursday Night Football provides a glimpse of what true desperation on the field looks like, except with a bunch of mediocrity on offense. While Doug Pederson has Trevor Lawrence believing in the offense, the Jets have their own special “Sauce” on defense. Expect to get the expected in this game: Lawrence and Zach Wilson struggling to move the ball against good defenses or the elements. The Jets face a young Jaguars quarterback that is still awful on the road, while the Jaguars take on chaos and flux at the most important position on the field. Wilson is only back because Mike White got hurt, not because of anything White did. That looked fine in the box score last week, but they still lost. They get the small benefit of being home and having one of the toughest defenses in the league.
