Christian McCaffrey is the most likely player to score a touchdown in Week 6. He scores in 68.7% of our Sims, and I still wouldn't bet him. His best anytime TD price on OddsShopper is -270 at DraftKings, and -270 only makes money over time if he scores more than 73% of the time.
George Pickens scores in just 44.3% of the Sims, and I'd bet him at +175, because +175 only needs 36.4%.
Stokastic's NFL Sims play out each game 10,000 times before kickoff and keep every box score, so we can count how often each player gets in the end zone. Type "How often does Pickens score?" into Ask The Sims, which is free, and it shows the Sims hit rate next to the DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
Week 6's Likeliest Scorers
Every player at 44% or better in the Sims from Tuesday night's board, with the best price across DraftKings and FanDuel. "Needs" is the break-even rate on that best price. Bold means the Sims clear it.
| Player | Sims | Best odds (needs) |
|---|---|---|
| McCaffrey, SF | 68.7% | -270 DK (73.0%) |
| K. Walker, LAC | 65.9% | -170 DK (63.0%) |
| Robinson, ATL | 62.2% | -210 DK (67.7%) |
| Smith-Njigba, SEA | 53.0% | +105 DK (48.8%) |
| J. Williams, DAL | 51.7% | -215 DK (68.3%) |
| Kittle, SF | 48.9% | +110 DK (47.6%) |
| London, ATL | 46.3% | +115 FD (46.5%) |
| Lloyd, GB | 45.1% | -165 DK (62.3%) |
| Watson, GB | 44.8% | +120 FD (45.5%) |
| Lamb, DAL | 44.8% | +125 DK (44.4%) |
| Pickens, DAL | 44.3% | +175 DK (36.4%) |
I wouldn't bet McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson at these prices, and they're two of the three likeliest scorers on the board. Goal-line backs are the first TD bet most people make, and their prices get squeezed. Walker is the one back I'd bet, at -170. Pickens has the most room of the plus-money names, Smith-Njigba is close behind, and Kittle and Lamb clear by too little for me. Smith-Njigba is questionable with an ankle injury, so if he's ruled out, the Sims re-run without him and his number changes.
The 30-Second Check
First get the best number on OddsShopper. Then pull the player up in Ask The Sims. If his Sims rate clears the break-even by a few points, bet it. The chart further down has the break-even for every common price.
Books only post the Yes side on TD props, so you can't see how much they're taking. The Sims % is your fair number.
McCaffrey at -270 Is Too Short
For Monday night against Washington, -270 at DraftKings needs 73%, and FanDuel's -290 needs even more. A fair price for a 68.7% scorer is about -220. At -270 that's about a $6 loss per $100 bet over time, if the Sims are right.
Pickens at +175 Clears the Bar
For Sunday night in Green Bay, Pickens is +175 at DraftKings, +155 at FanDuel and 37.6¢ on Kalshi with the fee in.
Shop it. DraftKings is best, but even FanDuel's +155 only needs 39.2%, still well under his 44.3%. If the Sims are right, +175 on a 44.3% scorer is worth about $22 of profit per $100 over time.
Herbert Depends on the Book
The Sims have Justin Herbert running one in at Kansas City 17.5% of the time. He's +400 at DraftKings, +600 at FanDuel and 13.8¢ (about +625) on Kalshi.
Skip the +400 at DraftKings, which needs 20%. FanDuel's +600 only needs 14.3%, so that's a small bet worth making, and the Kalshi price works too.
What Each Price Needs
For plus odds, the break-even is 100 ÷ (odds + 100). For minus odds, drop the minus sign and use odds ÷ (odds + 100). Or skip the math and use the table.
On Kalshi and Polymarket, a 37¢ touchdown contract needs a 37% hit rate, plus a small fee. Ask The Sims shows those prices with the fee in.
| Odds | Needs |
|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% |
| -200 | 66.7% |
| +100 | 50.0% |
| +125 | 44.4% |
| +175 | 36.4% |
| +200 | 33.3% |
| +400 | 20.0% |
| +600 | 14.3% |
For the full math on turning odds into percentages, see how to read betting odds and implied probability. The grading rules are in anytime TD props, explained.
When I Don't Trust the Number
These Sims ran Tuesday night. If a goal-line back loses first-team reps at Thursday practice, his Tuesday number is dead until the Sims run again.
Javonte Williams is the one I'd check this week. The Sims have him at 51.7%. He's -215 at DraftKings and 68.5¢ on Kalshi, both around 68%. On paper, the No side looks like the bet. When the Sims and the market are that far apart on a starting back, I assume I'm missing news, so I'd read the injury report before betting either side.
Pickens clears by 8 points. That's the kind of room I want before I put real money down, and it's why Lamb's half-point at +125 doesn't make my card.
Ask About Your Player
Pick the book you bet at and ask the Sims how often your player scores: DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi.
Odds as of Tuesday, Oct. 13, about 9:30 p.m. CT, DraftKings, FanDuel and Kalshi (fee included). Sims run Tuesday evening, Oct. 13, 10,000 per game. If you're reading this later in the week, tap a card for the live prices.
More on this: How To Read Betting Odds: +150 Explained Fast · Implied Probability · Simulation Betting 101: Find Value in NFL Props and Parlays
