A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals.
On the board for Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson, Andres Chaparro are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | +350 | Bet365 | 22.2% | 37 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | +376 | NoVig | 21.0% | 34 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +475 | BetMGM 🎁 | 17.4% | 35 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | +500 | Bet365 | 16.7% | 36 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 36 |
| Andres Chaparro (WSH) | +545 | NoVig | 15.5% | 34 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 35 |
| Alex Bregman (CHC) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
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Which of these prices is actually +EV? OS Pro flags the edges on this exact board — free 7-day trial, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off: Start your free trial.
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 12, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Nationals Park: park index 95.5 · wind 7 mph.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — 88° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +376 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +358 · ProphetX +372 · NoVig +376
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — 35% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 88° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +375 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +313 · Polymarket +319 · ProphetX +318 · NoVig +335
- Michael Busch (CHC) — 19% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 88° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +525 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +470 · NoVig +488
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — 88° air · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +550 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +471
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) — 88° air · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence C)
- books: best +545 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +545
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 6 mph · 88° air · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +650 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +539 · NoVig +506
- Andrew Pinckney (WSH) — 88° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +780 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +745 · NoVig +770
- Harry Ford (WSH) — 88° air. (model confidence C)
- books: best +850 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +804 · NoVig +770
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Washington Nationals Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-130).
- CDR Betting on Tails (#2 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Washington Nationals +1.5 Run Line (-117). Bet now
- Gubabets on Tails likes these plays:
- Stokastic Daily Fantasy on Tails likes Nasim Nunez Over 0.5 Total Stolen Bases (+300). Bet now → HardRock
- JediModi on Tails (#6 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+360). Bet now → Fanatics
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails likes Daylen Lile Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+940). Bet now → FanDuel
- Stokastic MLB Prop Tool on Tails likes Daylen Lile Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+850). Bet now → Bet365
- CharlieChip on Tails likes these plays:
- @BettingPix on Tails likes S. Imanaga Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-105).
- EMac on Tails likes Chicago Cubs -1.5 Run Line (+104). Bet now → PointsBet
- The Bet Baba on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+936). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals. @BettingPix, CDR Betting, CharlieChip, Cobi O'Connell, JediModi, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins · Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · [Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics](/articles/expert-picks/tampa-bay-rays-vs-oakland-athletics-home-run-picks-2026-08. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
