Red Sox at Blue Jays home run picks: this board was built for the Red Sox at Blue Jays game on August 12, 2026, which has been played, so the prices below are that day's record and not tonight's. As of September 4, 2026, tonight's best home run prices across 20-plus sportsbooks are on the live MLB home run odds screen, and the daily board is on MLB home run picks today.
A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays.
On the board for Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays: Wilyer Abreu, Kazuma Okamoto, Willson Contreras, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Charles McAdoo, Adley Rutschman are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | +525 | Bet99ON | 16.0% | 31 |
| Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) | +539 | Polymarket 🎁 | 15.6% | 26 |
| Willson Contreras (BOS) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 32 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | +703 | Underdog 🎁 | 12.5% | 34 |
| Charles McAdoo (TOR) | +800 | DraftKings 🎁 | 11.1% | 24 |
| Adley Rutschman (BOS) | +809 | NoVig | 11.0% | 26 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | +809 | NoVig | 11.0% | 24 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | +900 | TheScore | 10.0% | 30 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 12, 2026 · 03:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Rogers Centre: park index 99.0 · wind 4 mph.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — cold (64°). (model confidence A)
- books: best +500 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +500 · NoVig +488
- Willson Contreras (BOS) — cold (64°) · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +578 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +578 · NoVig +545
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — cold (64°). (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +698 · ProphetX +647 · NoVig +700
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — cold (64°) · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +790 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +764 · NoVig +770
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) — cold (64°). (model confidence B)
- books: best +539 at Polymarket | exchanges: Polymarket +539 · ProphetX +475 · NoVig +506
- Jarren Duran (BOS) — cold (64°). (model confidence A)
- books: best +809 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +809
- Alejandro Kirk (TOR) — cold (64°). (model confidence A)
- books: best +900 at TheScore | exchanges: Polymarket +762 · ProphetX +804 · NoVig +809
- Brett Bateman (TOR) — cold (64°) · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +1300 at BetRivers | exchanges: ProphetX +1176 · NoVig +1233
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Ziny Bets on Tails (#1 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Ranger Suárez Under 15.5 Total Pitching Outs (-115). Bet now
- Bank of Dennis on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Wilyer Abreu Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+121). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Toronto Blue Jays Over 3.5 Team Runs (+100). Bet now
- PickTopLine on Tails likes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-111). Bet now
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+115). Bet now
- @BettingPix on Tails likes A. Kirk Over 0.5 Total Hits (-215).
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Dylan Cease Over 17.5 Total Pitching Outs (-190). Bet now → Polymarket
- The Bet Baba on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135). Bet now → DraftKings
More from these experts on Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays. @BettingPix, CharlieChip, Rebel Mickie, The Bet Baba post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book. Playing the season-long markets too? The AI panel's AL MVP and NL MVP verdict boards track the award races all year.
Tonight's Other Home Run Boards
Every game on the slate gets the same board: Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers · Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres · New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins · Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · [Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics](/articles/expert-picks/tampa-bay-rays-vs-oakland-athletics-home-run-picks-2026-. The MLB Home Run Picks hub ranks the top prices across all of them.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
