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Tuesday was a good day at OddsShopper: Mickey Moniak (COL) and Dylan Crews (WSH) both left the yard, Gavin Williams (CLE) obliterated his strikeout number, and an underdog card carried the unit count into positive territory. Eric Lindquist's MLB picks today open Wednesday's card by admitting the board is lighter, but "trimmed down" is not the same as empty, and four plays clear his bar to actually get fired.
Mickey Moniak — one of the featured players on today's card.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's MLB best bets for July 29 are a Marlins-Phillies total under, a half-unit Dustin May strikeout ladder in St. Louis, a sized-down Blue Jays moneyline in Washington, and a Chase DeLauter (CLE) home run number with real value baked in. The full card, every lean priced but not pulled the trigger on, and the two spots passed on outright, is below.
Watch The Video
The full Wednesday show is embedded above, with Lindquist walking through every matchup and pricing the board live before he clicks anything. Watch on YouTube.
In Summary: Wednesday's Card
- Fired: Marlins-Phillies total under 8 (-110, FanDuel). Dustin May (STL) 6+ strikeouts (+167) with a longer 7+ strikeout leg stacked on top, half unit. Blue Jays moneyline vs. Nationals (Trey Yesavage), sized to .3 units. Chase DeLauter (CLE) to homer, a DraftKings longshot opener with a 3 in front of it.
- Leans, Not Fired: Jared Jones (PIT) over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Arizona. Mets moneyline in both games of the Braves doubleheader. Shane Drohan (MIL) under 17.5 outs vs. San Francisco. Jake McCarthy (COL) to homer over Mickey Moniak (COL). Ian Seymour (TB) strikeout ladder vs. Texas. Minnesota run line vs. Kansas City. Athletics moneyline (and a possible total under) vs. Boston.
- Passed: Tarik Skubal (DET) over 8.5 strikeouts, kept off on trade-deadline workload logic. Mariners-Dodgers over 9, still waiting on a better number than -105.
| Game | Play | Price | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies @ Marlins | Total under 8 | -110 (FanDuel) | Marlins carry a 92 wRC+ and a 23.8% K rate vs. lefties (12th-worst in MLB); Ryan Gusto (MIA) exits early, exposing Miami's bullpen. |
| Cubs @ Cardinals | Dustin May (STL) K-ladder, half unit | 6+ Ks +167, plus a longer 7+ Ks leg | Busch Stadium wind blowing in 7 mph; Tuesday's game at the same park saw fly balls die at the track. |
| Blue Jays @ Nationals | Blue Jays moneyline, .3 units | -125 (DraftKings) | Toronto's bullpen edge over Washington's, sized down for a hot CJ Abrams (WSH) and a Nationals lineup that can bite back. |
| Guardians @ Reds | Chase DeLauter (CLE) to homer | DraftKings opener, a 3 in front | .208 ISO allowed to lefties off Brady Singer (CIN) slider; DeLauter rarely strikes out and averages 92+ mph exit velocity. |
Shop The Number Before You Fire
Every play above only works if you get the actual price quoted here, and books move independently of each other by the hour — that's the whole case for line shopping instead of betting whatever number your one app shows you. Run each number through the OddsShopper odds screen before you click, and lean on the site's +EV screen the same way the DeLauter math below works: fair price first, best takeable price second, bet only when the second beats the first. If you want the mechanics behind how sportsbooks set (and profit from) that gap in the first place, how sportsbooks make money walks through the vig, and reading odds like a pro covers the conversion math start to finish.
Get the same tools Lindquist uses to build this card every single day.
The Marlins Can't Hit Lefties, And Their Bullpen Comes Early
Start with the play that actually got fired. Jesus Luzardo (PHI) draws the Miami Marlins, and the offense he's facing carries a 92 wRC+ and a 23.8% strikeout rate against left-handers on the season, 12th-worst in baseball in that department. That's the outlier the whole bet is built on: a bad-vs-lefty offense running into a good lefty. The other half of the equation is Ryan Gusto (MIA), who isn't going to work deep into this game, which means Miami's bullpen gets exposed earlier than the raw run total suggests. The alternate 8.5 and the 7.5 (sitting near even money) were both in play before the standard FanDuel number won out: under 8, -110, the line that actually got deployed.
The Half-Unit Ladder: Dustin May At A Suddenly Quiet Busch Stadium
The other fired play is a strikeout ladder, a market this card doesn't reach for often because of the extra vig — it only gets used when the shape of the game supports it. Dustin May (STL) draws the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium, a pitcher's park that's playing even smaller than usual with the wind blowing in at 7 mph. Tuesday night's game at the same park backed that up: fly balls that would carry elsewhere were dying at the track. May himself carries no pitch-count or trade-deadline concern, which matters given how often that logic is steering plays elsewhere on this card. Rather than settle for the 4.5-strikeout number sitting around -140/-150, the play skips straight to the ladder: 6+ strikeouts at +167, with a longer 7+ leg stacked on top, a half unit. Hit the six alone and the market is already profitable.
That wind-suppressing-power idea isn't a one-off for this card. It shows up again later, in the exact opposite direction, on the other side of the country.
Sizing Down In DC: Blue Jays Moneyline, Not A Blowout Bet
Trey Yesavage (TOR) draws the Washington Nationals, and the price (-125 DraftKings, -120 at Caesars and BetMGM) is short enough to want a reason to pass. There isn't one big enough. The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out meaningfully better than Washington's in relief innings, and Yesavage's own strikeout stuff has looked sharp lately, even better in his last outing against Boston (though still prone to some hard contact). But the other side isn't ignored: CJ Abrams (WSH) is drawing long home run prices as arguably the hottest hitter in baseball since the All-Star break, and a notable regular being out of Washington's lineup is a real downgrade for Toronto either way. That tension is exactly why this isn't a 6-unit moneyline bet. It's sized to .3 units instead, enough to be on the right side without overpaying for a Nationals offense that can bite back.
The Doubleheader Math: Mets Leaned, Not Fired
Washington isn't the only game shaped by respect for an opposing lineup. The rained-out Monday between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets became a Wednesday doubleheader, and the Mets moneyline is a lean in both games — never a fired play, just a lean. Game one is AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) against Sean Manaea (NYM), and the Braves' top of the order (Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Matt Olson) is enough to keep this from becoming a confident side. Game two is where the read sharpens: Chris Sale (ATL) against Christian Scott (NYM), and Scott's home run and walk problems make him a shaky fit for a game-two start, especially with hitting-friendly conditions (wind, humidity, and low barometric pressure all pointing the same way) after the rainout. If a Mets regular gets a breather in the nightcap after the rainout, a bench bat could jump several spots up the order and add lineup thump behind the long Mets home run prices. Two leans, same thesis: respect the Atlanta bats enough to size down, not enough to pass.
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) is a good example of what that kind of offense-respect looks like from a purely market-based angle. In the separately verified OddsShopper +EV board, Reynolds carries a fair Under-0.5-Hits price of +188, with the best number on the market sitting at +202 (Bet365), a 4.9% edge — a reminder that the same de-vig logic behind the qualitative reads is running in the background on every hitter, every night.
Around The Rest Of The Card
A handful of games didn't clear the bar for a fired play but earned a lean:
- Jared Jones (PIT) Over 4.5 Strikeouts vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez). Arizona is third-best in baseball at avoiding strikeouts against right-handers (20.3% K rate), which is enough to stay off the more aggressive 5.5 number, but the price on 4.5 still works. Corbin Carroll (ARI) is the wrinkle: a .238 expected ISO against lefties with a 17-degree launch angle is a real threat, but it needs a bigger number to get interesting.
- Shane Drohan (MIL) Under 17.5 Outs (-108) vs. the San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb). Four straight six-plus-inning outings from Drohan feels unsustainable, and Oracle Park has enough outfield real estate to help. This one breaks the usual market-price rule (normally -115/-122 or better before trusting a number) simply because the opener looks off. Still a lean, still waiting on more books to post.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) To Homer, the lean over teammate Mickey Moniak against Griffin Canning (SD). Canning has been one of the worst starters in baseball by expected numbers (.228 xISO, .267 ISO allowed to lefties), and a San Diego bullpen day is very much in play behind him. McCarthy gets the nod over Moniak specifically because McCarthy carries no pinch-hit risk and, unusually for a left-handed hitter, has produced a better wRC+ against lefties than righties this season.
- Ian Seymour (TB) Strikeout Ladder vs. the Texas Rangers (MacKenzie Gore). Seymour is running a 27%-plus strikeout rate to both sides of the plate, an unusual profile built on deploying his changeup even against right-handers (a 19% swinging-strike rate on it). Still just a lean waiting on opening numbers, and it loses a little shine with Corey Seager (TEX) off the roster.
- Minnesota Run Line (+120) vs. Kansas City (Randy Dobnak). The number has already moved from +115 to +120 even with Byron Buxton (MIN) out, enough to want the Twins bats to wake up against a pitcher who's outperforming his underlying stuff.
- Athletics Moneyline, with a possible total under mixed in, vs. Boston (Patrick Sandoval). Both Jacob Lopez (ATH) and Sandoval have been keeping the ball in the yard, which points toward the under as much as the side.
Dansby Swanson (CHC) is worth a similar market-based note on the Cubs-Cardinals card: his fair Under-0.5-Hits price checks in at +142 against a best-market number of +155 (Bet365), a 5.4% edge from the same verified board — another hitter the market is pricing a shade generous.
Chase DeLauter: A Home Run Number With A Three In Front Of It
The one play actually bet with real money, and pushed to viewers to bet too, is Chase DeLauter (CLE) to homer against Brady Singer (CIN). DraftKings opened DeLauter at +338, but the fair number should be shorter than that, inside +300: DeLauter barely strikes out, he's averaging north of 92 mph exit velocity, and Singer, even in the middle of a stretch where he's pitching better than his track record, is still allowing a .208 ISO to lefties off a slider that carries a 21-degree average launch angle and a 30% swinging-strike rate. Strip the vig out of a price and you get the market's true implied probability; when the number a book is offering pays out more than that fair probability justifies, the gap is the edge. DeLauter's opening price on a hitter who makes contact this consistently and squares the ball up this hard is exactly that kind of gap. "Anything with a three in front of it is viable," in Lindquist's own words — and this is the one he backed with money.
Where The Card Passed
Not every good story is a bet. Tarik Skubal (DET) against the Baltimore Orioles looks nearly automatic on paper: Baltimore's lineup is stacked with strikeout-prone bats at the bottom, and Skubal is a two-time Cy Young winner for a reason. But he's on the trade block, and clubs shopping a pitcher don't let him work a max-pitch outing days before the deadline. That workload risk is the same logic that kept the Blue Jays play sized down, and it's why Skubal's strikeout over stays off the card entirely rather than getting forced.
The Seattle Mariners-Los Angeles Dodgers over 9 got the same treatment. Emerson Hancock (SEA) looks due for regression and Eric Lauer (LAD) has pitched better lately, and Cal Raleigh (SEA) already went deep against a Dodgers lefty on Tuesday, but the number opened at -120 and has only crept to -105. That's a pass rather than paying a shorter total than the number deserves, the same discipline that turned a would-be blowout Blue Jays bet into a .3-unit play earlier on this card.
For the daily menu of free picks, the OddsShopper expert picks page posts them every morning, and the previous edition of this card is at Lindy's MLB Picks (7/27).
FAQ: Lindy's MLB Picks Today
What are Lindy's MLB picks today from Lindy's Leans Likes and Locks? Four plays got fired on Wednesday: the Marlins-Phillies total under 8, a half-unit Dustin May strikeout ladder, a sized-down Blue Jays moneyline, and a Chase DeLauter home run number. Everything else on the card stayed a lean that got priced but not bet, or a game that got passed on outright.
Does Lindy have MLB strikeout picks today? Yes — the Dustin May ladder is the fired strikeout play, and Jared Jones (PIT) over 4.5 strikeouts and the Ian Seymour (TB) ladder are both leans that got priced but not pulled the trigger on.
What about MLB moneyline picks today? The Blue Jays moneyline vs. Washington is the one that got fired, sized down to .3 units on a hot Nationals lineup. The Mets moneyline in both games of Wednesday's doubleheader and Minnesota's run line stayed leans, not bets.
Where can I watch the full show? The complete Wednesday stream is embedded above — watch it on YouTube.
